Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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881
FXUS63 KABR 180920
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
420 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

RADAR ECHOES HAVE REALLY DROPPED OFF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. ALTHOUGH...THE
ECHOES THAT ARE SHOWING UP ARE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS FOR
HEADLINES...WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
EASTERN CWA UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING AS WINDS ARE STILL RATHER
STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE COTEAU REGION. FREEZE WARNING IS ALSO IN
PLACE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN CWA FROM NORTH CENTRAL SD TO THE JAMES
VALLEY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.
CLOSE LOOK AT ALL AVAILABLE OBS ACROSS THE AREA DO SHOW SOME AREAS
THAT ARE 30 TO 32 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW SITES
THAT ARE STILL IN THE 32 TO 36 DEGREE RANGE. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
FALL TOO MUCH MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND WINDS IN PLACE AND SUNRISE IN
A COUPLE HOURS. THE BIGGER FREEZE EVENT STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING
FOR THE WHOLE CWA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION BY
12Z TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES
VALLEY WESTWARD. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING. AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA
AS WINDS WILL STAY UP A TAD MORE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER.
THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING AND MODELS DO TRY TO LINGER SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER OVER
THE EASTERN COUNTIES EVEN STILL AT 12Z TUESDAY. ORIGINALLY DID NOT
WANT TO INCLUDE THE FAR EAST IN A WARNING AT THIS POINT UNTIL CLOUD
COVER TRENDS COULD BE BETTER DEFINED BY DAY SHIFT TODAY...BUT FOR
COLLABORATION PURPOSES WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE INCLUDED THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ANYWAY AS TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH AND END
UP AROUND 32 DEGREES.

ASIDE FROM THE THREAT FOR A FREEZE OVERNIGHT...THE OTHER BIG STORY
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE VERY COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TODAY. READINGS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER
THE EASTERN CWA WHICH IS A GOOD 25 TO AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...THERE ARE A FEW SITES IN THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH COULD SET RECORDS FOR THEIR COLDEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED ON MAY 18TH. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE 50S ON
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD BE NEARING 60 DEGREES AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES SOME...BUT THAT IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THINGS FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT TODAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS. THERE WILL BE LINGERING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...BUT FOR THE MOST PART A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MAINLY AFFECTING WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SD...WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. INCREASED POPS A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE A SHARP
CUTOFF AS YOU TRAVEL FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO DRIER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN IT FINALLY GETS PUSHED EAST AHEAD OF AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
LOW WORKS ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION. AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER LOW OVER THE
AREA THAN THE ECMWF DOES. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

WILL GENERALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AFTER
A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE LOWS
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

PRECIP CONTINUES TO AFFECT KABR AND KMBG. RAIN HAS STARTED TO MIX
WITH SNOW. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE COLD CORE LOW IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH MOVES NORTHEAST.
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KATY THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO
35 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND DIMINISH BY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003>006-009-010.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
     TUESDAY FOR SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



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