Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 241120
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
620 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 259 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

Behind the exiting cold front temperatures today will end up 10-12F
lower than what was observed Tuesday, topping out in the low 70s
northwest to the low 80s south.

Expect dry conditions to continue through the day Thursday, with
highs again top out mainly in the 70s and RH values falling to 30-35
percent for all but the northeastern tier of counties. The dry
weather will be despite the 500MB low over southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba through tonight keeping southwesterly flow
over our area. The initial trough will extend from western Ontario
through ND and northern SD at 12Z Thursday, with a secondary trough
deepening over MT and ID.

The elongated sfc high should be nearly directly overhead 00Z-09Z
Friday, before shifting across southern MN/IA friday afternoon. The
mention of showers, and possibly thunderstorms, return Friday
morning west of the MO River as the secondary 500MB trough swings
east out of MT and ID. Am less impressed with thunderstorm potential
until the afternoon hours, but still the MUCAPE values remain less
than 500J/kg through the period. Friday should end up mostly clouds
with highs again in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

Will open the period with an upper trof at 500mb, and favorable
placement of 70kt upper jet. The result will be a pair of weak mid
level lows that will move across the forecast area early and late
Saturday. MUCAPE values are less than 500 j/kg so mainly an area of
rain with embedded convective elements.

The rest of the forecast period looks dry with zonal flow and weak
ridging aloft. There will be a weak lee low under this regime, with
700mb temperatures between +10 and +12C forming an effective cap
thanks to low mixed layer dewpoints and a lack of dynamics aloft.

Highs/lows will initially start out below average, but 850mb
temperatures steadily increase Sunday and into the start of the
upcoming work week for highs 10 to 15F above climo.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

VFR conditions for all terminals.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Connelly



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