Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241535 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH TODAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF COLD AIR INDUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
CWA TODAY...BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THE COLD DRY AIRMASS POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...MEANWHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC PLOTS SHOW A PERIOD OF DECENT ASCENT IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS THE WHERE EXACTLY THIS AREA OF BEST FORCING SETS
UP...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR NOW IS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z
AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY DRY
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE KABR/KATY SOUNDINGS...BUT DO
EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN. THEREFORE...TRIED TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF POPS EASTWARD...HOWEVER MAY EVEN BE TOO GENEROUS
WITH POPS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THIS
REGION. THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS SOUTH WEDNESDAY...BUT ADDITIONAL
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY WRING
OUT ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A BAND
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR TAKE OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM. LOOKING AT WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM TWENTY BELOW
TO THIRTY BELOW ZERO FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS THIS WILL LIKELY PROMPT
ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA INTO SATURDAY. THESE SOUTH
WINDS WILL ONLY BE BRINGING BACK SOME OF THE COLDER AIR TO THE
SOUTH. THUS...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS ON FRIDAY WARMING
INTO THE 20S BY SATURDAY. THE MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF
COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS THEN RETURN AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
WITH 20S AND LOWER 30S ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARMER
WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE...THIS PATTERN STILL LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL BE MOVING OVER ABR AND ATY THIS MORNING AS
COLDER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES HEADING
SOUTH FROM ND THIS MORNING COULD ALSO AFFECT ABR AND ATY.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. PIR AND
MBG ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE WAA VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
THEN BETTER LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALONG WITH WAA WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND LOWERING
CEILINGS INTO MBG AND PIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO BELOW A MILE AT BOTH
LOCATIONS. ABR AND ATY MAY ALSO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WITH
BETTER VISIBILITIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







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