Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 021742 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO WX/POP/QPF GRIDS TO TRY AND IMPROVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS OF MORNING SHOWERS AND LIKELY HEAT OF THE
DAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LEAVING TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. THAT SAID...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE TERMINAL
OF KPIR WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE SHOWERS. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TAFS UPDATES WILL
REFLECT THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD



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