Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 282018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
318 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

An area of rain showers associated with a surface trough has
stayed west of the Missouri River today, and is expected to remain
that way this evening before coming to an end later tonight as weak
high pressure settles back in. Rainfall amounts will be fairly light
in this CWA, with higher amounts expected to stay over the
southwestern part of the state.

Plenty of cloud cover will help keep temperatures mild tonight,
mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Will begin to see some
clearing on Wednesday, allowing temperatures to rise into the mid
50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

As the period opens, upper level ridging will be over the plains
states, situated between long wave troughs to the west and east.
The west coast trough digs toward the Southern Plains and closes
off while a weaker shortwave trough skirts the Northern Plains on
Friday. Moisture profiles are rather unimpressive, so it appears
that only light rain will be associated with this system on
Friday/early Saturday morning. Model consensus decreases quickly
by early next week. Models show some sort of ill defined upper
level trough along with very broad low pressure at the surface.
Models suggest the region picks up at least some precipitation
during this time frame, but timing is quite uncertain. Stuck with
blended guidance to account for uncertainty. Temperatures are
generally expected to be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
through the long term period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF
period. Light rain showers are possible mainly along and west of
the Missouri River this afternoon and tonight.




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