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000
FXUS63 KABR 051625 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. CLOUDS ARE THIN IN SPOTS AND
BROKEN/SCATTERED IN OTHERS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST
AREAS TO SEE SOME SUN TODAY. SNOW COVER ALSO REMAINS HIGHLY
VARIABLE. WITH HIGHS UNDER 10 DEGREES OFF CURRENT
TEMPERATURES...DECLINED TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARDS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ALL THATS LEFT OF LAST NIGHTS SNOW ARE JUST A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WITHIN THE EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK THAT COVERS MUCH
OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CLOUD COVER IS THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WHAT EARLIER LOOKED LIKE A VERY GOOD
SETUP FOR PERSISTENT CLOUDS TODAY IS NOW BECOMING A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...WHICH IS NOT PICKED UP WELL BY MODELS.
ALTHOUGH...FEEL THIS MIGHT JUST BE A TEMPORARY THING AS MORE
STRATUS IS TRYING TO FILL BACK IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. WENT
WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WORDING THIS MORNING AND TRENDED INTO
SOME CLEARING LATER TODAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE KEEPING THE
EAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL ALL PAN
OUT THOUGH. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO
SEE LOTS OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST WHERE LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN SD. MAY ALSO SEE FOG FORM IN ANY PROLONGED
CLEARING AREAS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WHILE 925 MB TEMPS DO NOT WARM ALL
TOO MUCH AND STAY ON THE COOLISH SIDE. NOT EXPECTING ANY EXCITING
TEMPS TODAY...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RATHER NICELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA WHILE A LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB OF AROUND 40 KNOTS
ALSO SURFACES. THIS WILL SPELL OUT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN CWA/COTEAU REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NOT QUITE THE BEST SETUP FOR DOWNSLOPE EVENT AS 925 MB WINDS ARE MORE
FROM A 180 TO 200 DEGREE DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
REACTION NONETHELESS. HAVE ALSO INSERTED PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS WELL AS THERE IS FRESH SNOW TO BLOW
AROUND WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS.

THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE A CHALLENGE THOUGH BECAUSE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH...ALONG WITH THIS FRESH
COATING OF SNOW WHICH WILL HAMPER THINGS A BIT. STILL FEEL 30S ARE
ATTAINABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH 40S FURTHER WEST,.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY...WITH RATHER WARM
AIR FOR MARCH IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
CAVEAT: HOW MUCH SNOW IS ON THE GROUND TO MELT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW WARM IT CAN GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

LEFT IN THE 15 POPS THAT ALLBLEND GENERATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT IF PRECIP DEVELOPS/MOVES OVER THE
NERN FORECAST ZONES...P-TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR STRATUS OVER KABR/KATY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AT KABR AND KATY...POTENTIALLY
BECOMING WINDY AT KATY WITH SOME VISBY REDUCTION IN BLOWING SNOW
POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...MVFR STRATUS AT KPIR/KMBG IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...POSSIBLY BURNING OFF BY LATE
AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT WIND...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DAY-TIME SUNSHINE PAN OUT. OTHERWISE...THERE IS A
50-50 CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT FOG AND IFR LOW STRATUS DEVELOP AT
THESE TWO TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN