Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271152 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
552 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 552 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 409 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

As a lee low forms across the high plains, winds will shift to south
and southeast to the south of a warm front, which will develop along
the northern tier of South Dakota today. 925mb temperatures of +1 to
+5C will result in highs in the 40s to near 50, however satellite
observations and model saturation at 500 and 300mb suggest mid/high
clouds across the area through much of the day could counter this
milder airmass.

A shortwave crossing the intermountain west will eject into the
northern plains tonight/early Tuesday. The aforementioned warm
front/inverted trough will provide the focus for vertical motion as
a surface low crosses Nebraska into southern Minnesota. We have a
fairly broad area of pops across the CWA however model guidance
suggests a fairly narrow area of sustained snowfall will cross the
central and northeast portions of the CWA. To our northwest, high
pressure will result in dry northerly flow according to NAM BUFKIT
soundings, which will limit accumulations there. To the south, warm
mid level air and a dry layer aloft will probably limit the impacts
to just a stratus layer. Snowfall totals will top out around 3
inches along that narrow axis where best forcing aloft zips
northeast along the boundary, with lesser amounts to the northwest
and southeast of this feature.

Temperatures will be much closer to average for Tuesday with cool
northerly flow. Another weak wave will zip across the area on
Wednesday. Wendesay will also feature deeper mixing and breezy
northwest winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

The long term shows large scale upper level ridging off the west
coast and into the western U.S. with troughing over the eastern U.S
to begin the period. This flow then becomes more zonal into Friday
night through Saturday night. The models agree well that a clipper
system will drop southeast across our CWA Wednesday night into
Thursday. This should bring a period of light snow to the eastern
part of our region with some accumulation expected. Otherwise, it
looks to be generally dry from Thursday night through Saturday
night. The GFS and EC both show a decent short wave trough digging
into the region from the west northwest Saturday night into Sunday
night. This will probably bring good chances of rain/snow to the
region for Sunday night. Thursday will be the coolest day with the
chances of snow with highs likely ranging from the upper 20s to the
upper 30s across the CWA. It will warm up from Friday into Saturday
into the 40s and 50s and staying that way into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 552 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through today as mid
and high level clouds stream over. A short wave trough coming into
the region this evening and overnight from the southwest should
spread some light snow from southwest to northeast along with
lowering ceilings to IFR/MVFR. The light snow may affect the
airports with lowered visibility.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr


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