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000
FXUS63 KABR 271523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
923 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED...NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. FORECAST IS
IN FINE SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HOWEVER HAVE DROPPED TO 5 MPH OR LESS SO WIND
CHILL IS NOT A REAL FACTOR.

TODAY WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. A VERY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE AND NO
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS
LIKELY HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S
BY SATURDAY...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE SNOW FREE AREAS OF
THE SOUTHWEST CWA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. BUT AGAIN MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED...SO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SPLIT FLOWISH LOOKING LONG WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS...FEATURING A TROF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND NEAR CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF CALIFORNIA...AND MORE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THAT SOUTH DIVING ENERGY ALONG
THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO KICK OUT THAT CUTOFF BY EARLY TO MID
WEEK. MEANWHILE MORE ENERGY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND WE END UP WITH A MID WEEK CENTRAL CONUS TROF WITH ONLY PARTIAL
PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THIS LACK OF PHASING
DOES SEEM TO SUPPORT THE VAST MAJORITY OF PCPN STAYING SOUTH OF
THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME WHERE SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. IF A LITTLE MORE PHASING OF THE
ENERGY OCCURS...THEN WE COULD SEE A BIGGER PCPN EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A ROLLER COASTER RIDE...STARTING OUT NEAR
NORMAL EARLY...THEN TURNING COLDER AGAIN BY MIDWEEK...ONLY TO WARM
AGAIN BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK