Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 041514 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1014 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. REMOVED POPS
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE OR WIND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD VIA SOUTHERLY LLJ
AROUND 35 KNOTS IN CENTRAL SD. SOME LIFT AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BELOW 20
KNOTS. WHILE TODAY LOOKS DRY FROM 12-0Z...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A LOW POP ALONG THE I-
29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ARW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LLM.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BYPASSING MOST OF THIS CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ
REDEVELOPS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MONTANA AND WESTERN ND LATER TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM
AND THUS HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WITH EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LLM
WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS TO MAKE NOTE OF
THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD STILL MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOK AND FEEL WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL CHUNKS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH/OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD
BE A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS THAT END UP SEEING PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES. THE 00Z GSM CONGLOMERATE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE
SUGGESTING ONE OF THESE POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS IS MOVING
THROUGH/FINISHING UP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS STILL
MAINTAINING SEASONAL TO PERHAPS A TOSH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
TEMPERATURES /WHEN FULLY MIXED OUT/ IN THE OUT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR AND/OR KMBG.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



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