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000
FXUS63 KABR 231949
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
249 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Cool and breezy conditions will continue into Saturday as an upper
trough sits over the region. For the most part, dry conditions are
also expected except across far northeast SD and west central MN.
Shortwave energy will move through the trough, providing enough lift
to set off a few light showers in this area Saturday morning.

Temperatures will be well below average with lows in the 40s tonight
and highs struggling to climb into the mid 60s across the east on
Saturday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The upper flow through the next few days will be mainly
northwesterly with a trough to the east and a slowly eastward
migrating ridge to our west. NAM BUFKIT profiles are mainly dry
initially despite a weak wave passing across our northeast early
Sunday morning. 850mb temperatures will have already bottomed out at
this point as well. Looking at mainly dry conditions with slow
moving high pressure to our south blocking us from gulf moisture and
keeping the low level flow out of Canada which will also result in
below average temperatures.

As the high slides east, we will see an increasing east west
gradient across the state with strong southerly 850mb flow between
25 to 35kts Tuesday and 40-50kts overnight with a low level jet.
Therefore, increased winds above blended guidance by about 10kts as
GFS BUFKIT profiles support mixed winds in the mid 20 to mid 30kt
range. This low level jet will also support elevated convection
overnight. A surface front will pass through the area early
Wednesday according to current model consensus, with additional
thunderstorm chances.

The upper flow diverges between deterministic guidance thereafter as
an upper low breaks the ridge and we move to straight zonal flow.
This may continue to be an active pattern but given uncertainty will
stick with mainly blended POPs Wed PM - Fri.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

An area of low VFR and MVFR stratus will continue to slowly erode
from west to east this afternoon. By 21z all sites should be VFR.
Gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30 kts will slowly diminish this
evening, but are expected to increase again on Saturday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Wise