Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 301538 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVER ALL. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
THIS PERIOD. WITH WESTERLY FLOW...MIXING UP TO 600MB IS
POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN HIGHS AROUND 90. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BIT COOLER AIR FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. A VERY SUBTLE WAVE IS EVIDENT SATURDAY...HOWEVER PROFILES ARE
GENERALLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
ABOVE 500MB WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OR FOR SURFACE BASED
STORMS THANKS TO LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIMITING CAPE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REGIONALLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA MAY ALLOW
FOR A WEAK WAVE OR TWO TO DROP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A
DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THOUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SCHC/CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

AFTER A FAIRLY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S...WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



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