Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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988
FXUS63 KABR 042124
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

RIGHT NOW THE CWA IS UNDER A GAP BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST...REPLACED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SUSTAINED OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WEST WHICH...ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WILL KEEP READINGS MILD OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AN UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE
REMAINS QUITE WEAK WITH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT. OMEGA VALUES REMAIN
BELOW 5 MICROBARS. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING ARE ONLY AROUND
40 PERCENT AT THE PEAK IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AS WELL...SO IMPACTS FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

850MB TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE MILD WITH READINGS BETWEEN +1 AND
+5C BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS EVEN WARMER AT +4 AND
+8C. WITH FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE THE SKY
IS THE LIMIT.

AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY WITH AROUND 5 TO
10 MICROBARS AT 700MB. COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS WELL...THOUGH THE
MIXING THIS CREATES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS THE FURTHEST WEST
WITH THE LOW...AND THEREFORE INDICATES MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM. ONE THING ALL THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS A FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL
WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS AND COULD RESULT IN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FOR
NOW...HAVE STAYED CLOSED TO SUPERBLEND POPS UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER
ON WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME INDICATION OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON TUESDAY AS A LOW TRACK WEST OF THE CWA...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
BACK OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH LOOKS TO REACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL MEAN IT WILL TRACK THROUGH DRY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 30S EARLY ON SUNDAY...THEN
SLOWLY FALL AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES
IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER BOUT OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE THE WEST
WILL REMAIN VFR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SNOW.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



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