Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 290046 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
746 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TNT. ALTHOUGH DID LOWER TEMPS A TOUCH
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING
SOUTH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. REST LOOKS FINE FOR
NOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. FOR TONIGHT...A SHARP NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BISECTING THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG WITH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN BEHIND
IT. STILL EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH A DEEPENING
STRATUS LAYER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS...WILL STAY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT. AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN EASTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTHEAST...THE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA WILL SLOWLY TURN
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE. EXPECT
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA INTO MONDAY
WITH BREAKS IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...EXPECT MOST
OF THE CWA TO BE DRY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AND
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...MORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE REGION.
DEEP LAYER LIFT....LOW LEVEL WAA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WILL
BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
BEGINNING MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT OUT WEST AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE
INTERESTING IF WE CAN GET SOME DECENT SURFACE HEATING. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...WE COULD HAVE SOME SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP EAST IN THE CWA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ADVECT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN BREEZY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

IT APPEARS THAT ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BE ABLE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. HAVE
THEREFORE REMOVED POPS THAT SUPERBLEND GAVE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. WILL THEN BE WATCHING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY
POTENT COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...12Z EC DROPS 850 MB TEMPS TO ABOUT -2 TO -4 DEGREES
CELSIUS BY 12Z FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A STIFF NORTHWEST BREEZE. 12Z
GFS IS A BIT WARMER AT 850 MB. SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND COULD BE LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR RATHER COLD TEMPS
BY SATURDAY MORNING.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH OVER ALL THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT TNT. FIRST AFFECTING KMBG/KABR AND THEN LATER KATY/KPIR.
MORNING IFR CIGS SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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