Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 072335 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
535 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Have continued high POPs for light snow falling mainly east of
ABR. A ridge of cold Arctic high pressure will nose across far
western SD overnight. The result will be winds diminishing to
mainly less than 15kts, and temperatures falling into the 0 to
-10F range by daybreak Thursday. Coupled with the winds, wind
chill values will be getting close to -25 to 30F. A Wind Chill
Advisory has been posted for Corson, Dewey, Walworth, Edmunds,
Potter, and Faulk Counties, mainly overnight into mid morning
Thursday. Elsewhere, wind chill values will at least temporarily
fall into the -15 to -23F range Thursday morning.

The main benefit to the sfc ridge building in will be a diminishing
trend to the strong winds of late. While northwest winds will remain
for the day Thursday, 10-20kts will be common. Kept temps a couple
degrees higher than guidance over the mainly snow-free locations
over our south central locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

The main forecast issue in the long term will be first snow this
weekend, and then temperatures later on. The system that enters the
picture for late Friday night and Saturday is being handled somewhat
differently by the main models. The CMC/GFS maintain a pretty good
brush with snow on especially Saturday. A decent looking H3 jet is
expected to provide UVM per right entrance region moving over the
CWA during the day. This is apparent in omega/frontogenesis progs.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF`s jet structure looks a bit different and
slows up the process a bit, and pushes its surface features
further south vs the other two models. At this point hard to pick
a winner, but will have to maintain due diligence until models
pull into line with each other.

Another big difference is the predicted cold push around 144+ hours.
The ECMWF remains much more bullish with this vs the GFS/CMC. The
CMC/GFS indicate more of a glancing blow of cold air, where as the
ECMWF ushers in -25C or colder H85 air to most of the region. With
the models maintaining consistency to their respective
prognostications from the 00Z run, it`s hard again to determine the
correct answer. Some of the GEFS plumes do support the ECMWF so the
Euro model may be on to something.  Temperatures overall should be
below to much below normal for the entire forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Gusty northwest winds will continue across the area tonight,
before diminishing on Thursday. An area of light snow across
central and eastern portions of the CWA will combine with the
winds, resulting in areas of MVFR cigs and vsbys through the
evening hours. Otherwise, cigs will bounce between VFR and MVFR
through the TAF period.


SD...Wind Chill Advisory from 4 AM to noon CST Thursday for SDZ009-

     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
     Thursday for SDZ003-015.



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