Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 241720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

No major changes this morning. Looks like the baroclinic zone/leaf
over the western James valley will gradually move/develop east
through the afternoon and evening, so did adjust pops a bit.
Temperatures and winds look on track. Per 88d reflectivity it
appears rain rates have gone down so model forecasts of up to an
additional half to one inch over the eastern cwa looks okay.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Rain continues! As the severe weather threat has ended, our
thoughts go to rainfall and issues that may arise through the day.
We continue to monitor area river levels, especially near and
southeast of Watertown. Taking a look at the radar estimated storm
total precipitation, the hardest hit area so far is southeast of a
line from Redfield to Sisseton, and specifically Castlewood to
Kranzburg. The good news is that much of the precipitation has
stayed well west of this area overnight, giving time for some of the
rain to soak in before the next round this afternoon. 24 hour
precipitation totals of 2 inches or greater have been common around
Watertown, with the Big Sioux River at Broadway USGS station
reporting 3.04in. Another high spot is just south of our area at HON
with 3.05in.

Off and on rain showers will continue today, before slowly
diminishing in intensity and coverage from west to east tonight, as
the elongated area of low pressure exits across Minnesota and the
500mb low over UT ejects northeastward. A rumble of thunder or two
will still be heard over eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota
into this evening. Diminished the potential based on limited CAPE
values west. Temperatures today will top out in the 50s, except in
the 60s to low 70s near the Minnesota border.

Expect temperatures to fall into the 40s tonight, and rebound into
mid to upper 50s Monday afternoon. A dry ridge of high pressure
originating from south central Canada will work into the western
half of South Dakota through Tuesday morning, with rain showers
still possible over eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. An
extended dry period will begin Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon
temperatures will be up slightly from Monday, hovering around 60

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

On Tuesday night we will see the upper level low pressure area
moving off to our northeast along with the rain showers. The models
then show our region in northwest flow aloft from Tuesday night into
Friday before upper level ridging out west builds into the region
into Saturday. Some short wave troughs will move across our region
from the northwest through this period along with some surface
fronts and are expected to come through dry. With clear to partly
cloudy skies expected through the period, highs are expected to be
mainly in the 60s with lows in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

A band of light rain will continue to move northeast across
eastern SD this afternoon and slowly diminish this evening.
However, expect IFR and MVFR cigs to continue overnight and into
Monday morning. Local areas of fog could also diminish visibility
to below 3 miles.




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