Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231743 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1243 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z

UPDATE Issued at 1033 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Continue to watch stratus deck slide southward into the CWA with
plenty upstream into southern Canada. A bit tricky determining
just how far south these clouds can go, along with figuring out
areal coverage through the afternoon. Hi-res models keep the
higher moisture profiles in the lower levels across
northern/northeast SD into west central MN into the afternoon
hours. Increased sky cover a bit today to reflect mostly cloudy
skies across the north. High temp forecast appears in good shape
for the time being. Will continue to see cold air advection
through the day as a subtle reinforcing shot of cooler air works
into the CWA later today. Winds across the northeast CWA and
especially in the Coteau region are rather gusty in the 30 to 40
mph range, so have increased wind speeds a bit as well.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

The sfc low that shifted across eastern SD has now moved along the
ND/SD/MN border, setting the stage for cooler /but near normal/
air to settle in on north to northwest winds. In fact, a quick
increase in winds has been noted behind this boundary as its
moved east. Accompanying the cooler air during the day today will
be stratus currently across much of northern and central ND. Will
see just how far southwest this cloud shield will be able to go.
The sfc high will shift overhead tonight, allowing temperatures
into the 30S. Upper 20s may still be possible over portions of the
James River Valley. The main concern here is that there may be too
much moisture and possible stratus around, inhibiting the quick
falling of temperatures. This is leading to a lower confidence
fcst at least with temperatures in the short term.

The sfc high will exit across MN on Monday, allowing warm air
advection to return and temps jump up about 5 degrees from Sunday`s
highs. A tightening pressure gradient between the exiting high and
organizing low over MT/WY Monday afternoon will result in increased
winds around 20kts with higher gusts, especially over central SD.

A chance of wet weather /all in the form of rain/ will return late
Monday night and continue through the day Tuesday, at least for the
eastern half of the forecast area. This will be thanks to the sfc
low shifting into SW SD and western NE.

Will keep the thunderstorm potential out of the area for Thursday
afternoon. While the typically overdone NAM is hinting at the
potential for a few rumbles of thunder, the consensus is to keep the
thunderstorm potential to our south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

A mid level shortwave trough will slide across the Northern Plains
early in the period. By Thursday morning, northwest flow will
develop as a strong ridge builds over the Rocky Mountain region. The
ridge makes its way east, becoming centered over the plains on
Friday before getting pushed east by another shortwave trough set to
track across the region on Saturday.

At the surface, a low pressure system will be over the western high
plains Tuesday evening, with precipitation likely ongoing across a
good portion of the CWA. This system will push eastward Tuesday
night, with precipitation coming to an end Wednesday morning. Models
begin to diverge toward the end of the period. The ECMWF brings a
system and chances for precipitation on Saturday, while the GFS
keeps conditions dry. Therefore, will stick with the Superblend
solution which leans slightly more toward the ECMWF and brings some
precipitation to the eastern CWA.

Above normal temperatures will remain through the long term period,
with highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Overnight lows will be
in the mid 30s to lower 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

The North Dakota stratus made it down into this area this morning.
MVFR cigs have been reported at KMBG, KABR and KATY. Per regional
satellite trends and short range model guidance, stratus should
dissipate at these three terminals over the next few hours. By
00Z, all four terminals should be into some VFR conditions that
persist into Monday. With high pressure settling over the region
tonight, winds will go light. The light winds and clear skies
could end up promoting a few hours of radiation fog potential
toward dawn.




LONG TERM...Parkin
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