Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 151729 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1129 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 1014 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Made a few minor adjustments to the sky cover as an area of clouds
continues to drift across the eastern part of the area. No changes
made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Strong high pressure is building our way from southern
Saskatchewan and northeastern MT, while low pressure continues to
exit across WI/IL. Winds continue to gust near 20kts at times,
strongest over our eastern counties. This high will sink across
central SD around daybreak Tuesday, and keep a ridge over our
eastern counties during the day Tuesday while it moves into eastern
KS.

Lake/river effect clouds are showing up well west of PIR this
morning. Have continued their mention in the forecast by keeping an
area of higher cloud cover, as well as at least a small area of
flurries over eastern Stanley and portions of northern Jones/Lyman
Counties, downwind of the warmer open water. Otherwise, some reduced
visibilities in haze (more than likely blowing snow) over our MN
counties and east. Will continue to mention the potential for patchy
or areas of blowing snow, but it may need to be cut back over our
western counties as the day continues despite northwest winds of 15-
20kts. A very low potential exists for more flurries over our
eastern areas this afternoon and early this evening (closest to the
exiting 500mb low), but will keep the mention out of the forecast
due to the very low probability. Otherwise, the main concern over
this period will be wind chills. Will keep the headlines as is.
However, did break up the WSW and HWO to mention timing of the the
lowest/most dangerous wind chill values. This was done, because
there will likely be improving wind chill values over all but those
areas east of Brown and Spink Counties where they will be reaching
Wind Chill Warning criteria for nearly the entire hazard period. The
main concern hazard wise may be the need to drop it a little earlier
Tuesday morning. Will continue to look at this potential today.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

A pattern change occurs during the long term. Deep trof over the
eastern conus gets pushed east as energy crashes the western conus
ridge. Some of that energy is expected to provide for pcpn chances
over the region, but probably not until next weekend. For next
weekend, the models have been fairly consistent over the last couple
days in predicting a Central/Northern Plains storm. Of course, the
details this far out are sketchy, and the models likely will go
through several iterations before finally settling on a solution.
Temperatures will start the period chilly, but then warm up as a
different airmass moves into the region.  However, colder air will
return again with the storm over the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
through midday Tuesday. There may be a few areas of scattered to
occasionally broken MVFR cigs across parts of the southern and
eastern CWA through mid afternoon today.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
     SDZ003>011-015>023.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
     SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin



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