000
FXUS63 KABR 122322
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
622 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT LIKELY CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST CWA SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME DECENT CHANCE POPS DOWN THAT WAY. THERMAL
PROFILES STILL SUPPORT RAIN EARLY ON...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMS LOOK TO BE
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

MUCH COOLER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS BRISK NORTH WINDS
ALSO DEVELOP. ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT QPF WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY...BUT ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM. AFTER
ABOUT 96 HOURS THE MODELS GO THEIR OWN WAY IN DEPICTING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS. THEY ALL LOOK A BIT SPLIT
FLOWISH...BUT FROM THERE ITS HARD TO SETTLE ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION.
SO NEEDLESS TO SAY ONLY NIT NOID CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MODEL
BLEND TODAY. ONE THING ALL AGREE ON ARE THE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED ABOUT MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
(AFTER 06Z) AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY MID SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE KPIR AREA LATE...ENDING BY 15Z
SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN