Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 150530 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ONE WEAK S/W IS
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION NOW WITH LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR FROM
BROOKINGS TO HURON. WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...EXPECT ONLY SPRINKLES AT BEST. A STRONGER S/W...CURRENTLY
ENTERING NORTHERN MONTANA WILL CROSS THE REGION BY 6Z TONIGHT.
THIS S/W WILL CAUSE DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA WHERE SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS. WITH THE MAJOR OF
THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE 850 MB...EXPECT LITTLE MEASURABLE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ONE MORE COOL DAY
ON MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 60S...OR TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WAA DEVELOPS LATE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE PLAINS WED AND THU
BEFORE THE FLOW FLATTENS TO NEAR ZONAL ON FRIDAY. STILL THIS MEANS
THAT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS A SFC
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME REGARDING JUST HOW
MUCH PRECIP THERE MAY BE AND WHEN IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
STUCK WITH ALLBLEND FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. BY SAT NIGHT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WEST-EAST ORIENTED BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION/SPRINKLES ONGOING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 10Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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