000
FXUS63 KABR 181555 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1055 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Showers are developing along a weak cold front draped across NE
South Dakota. These showers will continue building today with weak
thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible along and west of the Missouri River
this afternoon. With less instability and dry air in the lower
levels, expect little QPF with these storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

More or less a carbon copy forecast from the last few days with
northwest flow aloft and cool mid level temperatures resulting in a
northwest breeze, and mainly diabatically driven shower activity.
MLCAPE values are only on the order of 200-500 j/kg - skinny
throughout the profile, so will continue to mention thunder but
severe weather is unlikely. CAM solutions show less coverage and a
concentration that is farther east as compared to yesterday
(Saturday). Otherwise not much of note in the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

The period starts off with a fairly meridional mid level flow across
the conus. However, the pattern starts to flatten out during the
period. Probably the main chance for pcpn will fall into the
Wednesday through Friday time frame.  But, that said, the models are
not particularly complimentary on the small scale details and thus
timing/positioning of ll fronts, etc, is of low confidence. Internal
model blend will suffice for now.

Temperatures will begin the period near to above normal, but then
will trend to below normal for the latter half of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Vfr conditions are expected generally speaking. KATY will
experience some ifr/mvfr cigs this morning before they mix out.
Isolated to sct showers/storms are expected this afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK