Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 181538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT...AND SUSPECT FOG WILL LIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING...AND LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW
TO RISE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE TO BE VERY SHALLOW...SO WOULD
SUSPECT THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE CLOUD COVER AT
LEAST SOME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH THE PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG IN TIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. IFR VSBYS IN FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT KPIR AS WELL. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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