Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180946
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE CWA THIS AM...WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. THE
BACK EDGE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KBIS...AND WILL CLEAR
OUR AREA BY MID MORNING.

CIRRUS FROM NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY MOVING IN TO FILL IN THE GAP
HOWEVER...SO NOT MUCH SUN TODAY. THUS...COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE EASTERN CWA...WITH WARM ADVECTION WEST RIVER. MIGHT SEE SOME
DUCTING ALONG THE COTEAU WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PUSH THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WILL LIMIT DURATION/COVERAGE OF BLOWING SNOW
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ZONE OF A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A LITTLE CAPE SUGGEST LIGHT SHOWER/FLURRIES
WITHIN THE ZONE OF COLD ADVECTION THAT FOLLOWS. WILL ALSO SEE A
6MB/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE...AND AROUND A 10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE. INGREDIENTS WOULD BE BETTER FOR WIDESPREAD
BLOWING SNOW HOWEVER MIXED DOWN WINDS PEAK BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS...DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS BEHIND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD HIGHS/LOWS TO CLOSE
OUT THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE TROF IN THE
EASTERN CONUS GETS DISPLACED AS ENERGY COMES THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS ENERGY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME PCPN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL SERVE TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...SO AT LEAST THE LATE PART OF
THIS WEEK AND AND WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT WARMER BEFORE COLDER AIR
AGAIN FILTERS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRAVERSE OVER
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES
TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5 MILES AT TIMES.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD IN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY
PUSHING SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS LATE.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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