Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 161716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1116 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Dry weather and well above normal temperatures remain. Tweaked
sky cover down a bit, with just a few-sct high clouds. Otherwise,
the ongoing forecast looks on track.

UPDATE Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

An upper level ridge over the region today will bring abnormally
warm temperatures to the area. NAEFS return interval still suggests
temps at 700 and 500 mb from now through 18Z Friday occurring
outside the CFSR database. Based on SPC`s sounding climatology page,
two new temperature records were set for KABR`s 0Z sounding on the
16th. Last night`s sounding reported 850 mb temps of 9.2C, which
beats the old record of 8.8C. The 700 mb temp of -0.1C beat the old
record of -1.7C. Additionally, daily upper air records are sure
to fall over the next few days. It`s tough to say how much of this
warmth will reach the surface, especially where there is snow
cover. Used NOHRSC snow depth data and lowered highs a few more
degrees today where the snow pack is the deepest, or Onida and
points north.

An area of low pressure and upper level trough will cross the
region on Friday and Friday night. Expect a dry passage with only
a shift in the wind direction. While 850 and 700 mb temps drop
several degrees behind this system, temperatures will still remain
well above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Much above normal temperatures are forecast from Saturday night
through Wednesday in the deterministic and ensemble model output
tonight. Wednesday appears to mark the beginning of low level caa
that will translate into temperatures much closer to climo normal
(colder conditions) for the second half of next week.

For the first time in seven days, the 00Z NAEFS/GEFS ensemble qpf
output is lending some credibility to seeing widespread tenth of an
inch (or more?) qpf out of the late Sunday night through early
Monday evening potential precipitation event. And the p-type
continues to lean all liquid (rain) during this event.

Also, two nights in a row the ECMWF, and to a lesser extent the GFS,
is producing deformation zone-induced precipitation over this cwa
when the next low pressure system lifts out of the Rockies and
begins working east-northeast across the central plains region
during the mid to late next week timeframe.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR ceilings and vis are expected to remain through the period for
all locations but ATY. ATY has MVFR fog this morning, and could
get another bout tomorrow morning.




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