Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180535 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1235 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 912 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

A cold front will sweep across the region late tonight and Wednesday
morning. Winds will become breezy behind the front at 15 to 30 MPH
from the northwest. Temperatures, though still above average for
mid October, will be cooler on Wednesday with highs topping out in
the mid to upper 60s.

The only forecast issue in this pattern is elevated fire weather
concerns. North central SD will be flirting with red flag criteria.
Right now, it does not appear as though the lowest RH, around 20
percent, will coincide with the strongest winds. But, if timing of
the front is fickle, it could result in a headline Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

The period begins Wednesday night with an upper level ridge building
into the region with surface winds becoming southerly. The southerly
winds will draw warm temperatures into the region on Thursday with
highs climbing into the 70s and lower 80s.

An upper level trough over the Pac NW on Thursday will quickly push
into the Northern Rockies on Friday. Southerly winds will strengthen
on Friday, especially in eastern SD and western MN where winds may
reach wind advisory criteria. With 925 mb temps nearing two standard
deviations above normal, highs on Friday should climb into the mid
70s to the mid 80s.

A cold front will push across the region Friday night through
Saturday with isolated to scattered showers possible. High
temperatures will cool off into the lower 60s on Saturday. Another
storm system may impact the region Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Wednesday. Winds will become northwesterly at 15 to 30 knots
by mid morning, and will continue until early evening before
becoming light and variable.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Dorn



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