Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 232330 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
630 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Current radar shows quiet conditions across the CWA this afternoon,
now that the lone dime-sized hail producing thundershower over
Hamlin and Deuel counties from earlier has moved into MN. Although,
western SD is seeing some scattered shower activity which looks to
impact the western CWA later this afternoon and evening. Radar also
picking up on some light returns in the form of drizzle across the
Coteau region, which is also confirmed by web cams. Hi-res models
continue to indicate potential for lower visibility from fog across
the Coteau area late this afternoon and through the overnight hours
so will continue with that in the forecast. Most of the visibility
grids from the models are showing mainly the Coteau being impacted
and have recently backed off of the more widespread lower visibility
they were showing from earlier this morning.

As the main surface low begins moving east across the Central Plains
overnight, the main area of precipitation will transition to
southern SD, perhaps including the southern CWA. MUCAPE values of a
few hundred J/KG stick around over the southwest counties early this
evening, so have included a mention of thunderstorms as well.

For Friday, it still appears most of the precipitation will be
occurring over southeast SD, and possibly the fringes of the CWA
border with FSD. For our forecast area, mainly looking at a north to
northeast breeze through the day, along with cool temperatures in
the 40s and 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

The latest models continue to advertise a split flow pattern across
the CONUS, with the main storm track likely to remain over the
Central and Southern Plains. A couple of weak waves are still
progged to cross the region during the long term. The highest
chances for pcpn look to be late in the weekend, and again about the
middle of next week.  Otherwise, generally dry conditions are
expected over the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to be
near or even a tad above normal given the absence of any cold air
intrusions during the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

An area of IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in drizzle and fog will remain
over the far eastern CWA into tonight. Vsbys may fall into the
IFR category at some locations later tonight, including at KATY.
The MVFR cigs may drift a bit to the west overnight as well,
possibly reaching KABR. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere. On
Friday, looks for conditions to improve to VFR levels across the
entire CWA by midday or so.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin



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