Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270221 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
921 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA RIGHT NOW. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE CLOUD-COVER
IS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE. NO CHANGES PLANNED. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD START TO SHOW UP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
WORKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE AREA OF SNOW THAT TRACKED OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA TODAY HAS PUSHED ALMOST COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE CWA AS
OF 19Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN WILL BEGIN TO GET PUSHED EASTWARD BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSH OVER
THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD. MAY SEE THE RAIN BECOME SNOW AGAIN ACROSS
THE FAR EAST FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK QUIET AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. DECENT WAA DEVELOPS ON BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING. DUE TO THE
STRONG WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
TONIGHT...WILL BEGIN TO SEE A WARMING TREND TAKE PLACE. THE WARMER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WEST ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR A LARGE
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WARMER AIR FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA
AT 12Z SUNDAY. 12Z GFS SHOWS FRONT INTO MINNESOTA AT THAT TIME
WHEREAS THE 12Z EC STILL SHOWS THE FRONT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
NONETHELESS IT WILL STILL BE RATHER WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT THERE
COULD STILL BE LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA.

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES AS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GET BACK INTO SOME WARMER AIR. ASIDE FROM THE
PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST...THERE WILL BE
SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY GLANCES THE REGION. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS SHOWING
UP IN MODELS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
DAKOTAS WITH PRECIP...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WARM
ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE IN
AND INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND
SUB-VFR CIGS AND/OR VISBIES AT THE KMBG AND KPIR TERMINALS. THE
PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOK TO TRANSITION TO THE KABR AND KATY
TERMINALS LATER IN THE PERIOD AT OR AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN






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