Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 240557 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 859 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Cold front was moving south in the cwa this evening. Aberdeen has
fallen 20 degrees since 630 pm with breezy northeast winds at 15
to 25 mph. This front will stall out and push back north some
tonight. Showers out west will also be moving into our cwa tonight
as an upper level low pressure trough moves in.

UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The surface map currently consists of a low near Rapid City with a
warm front stretching along the ND/SD border. Temperatures south of
the front are in the 60s and lower 70s with breezy south to
southwesterly winds. Of course temperatures are much cooler north of
the front with readings only in the low to mid 40s. It`s even colder
further north. With the front pushing further north than expected,
along with clearing skies, high temps this afternoon may need to be
adjusted up some more.

The surface low will track across the region later tonight and
through the day on Monday. This system, along with an upper level
trough will bring showers to most of the CWA. With the trough over
southern California, it should be a while before showers begin to
impact this CWA. Eastern SD may not see showers until after 12Z
Monday. Limited instability, have kept the mention of thunder out of
the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A wetter and cooler pattern is in store for the extended period. An
upper trough will settle over the Plains and intermountain West.
Shortwave activity will lead to unsettled weather with periodic
showers. The trough will draw down cooler air and when combined with
clouds will result in max temps well below average. Temps will only
top out in the 40s mid week with weak recovery into the lower 50s
for the last part of April. Lower temps will mean mixed precip
overnight and early in the morning. Any showers could be light snow
or a rain and snow mix before changing to rain during the day. Best
chances for precip will occur early Friday across the south and
early Sunday. Confidence is low as to timing due to model


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the night and Monday for
all locations except MBG where MVFR ceilings are expected into
Monday. An upper level low pressure trough moving into the region
from the west will bring some scattered showers tonight and Monday
to the region. These may affect the airports at or in the




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