Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180812
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
312 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AT ABR...ATY AND POSSIBLY MBG.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. OTHERWISE...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. EXPECT
THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO ADVECT NORTH/MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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