Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 211125 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Issued at 624 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

500mb ridge will be overhead through Saturday. The warm up begins
today, with highs around 10F warmer than yesterday. A few gusts
nearing 18kts will not be out of the question this afternoon,
especially far east, where the tightest pressure gradient will exist
between the sfc ridge sliding over eastern IA and the sfc
trough/warm front moving over the western half of the cwa.

Another sfc ridge will build in tonight, with a few high clouds.
Saturday will be marked by a low nearing from western SD. Increased
southerly winds, temperatures up another 5F, and increased fire
concerns will be the theme. RH values will fall to around 25 percent
or less over our 3 most southwest counties. The sfc low will swing
across our area 00-09Z Sunday. Also Saturday night, a 500mb low over
central Canada will drag a weak trough across ND early in the
evening, and the eastern Dakotas after 06Z. This trough will exit to
our east during the day Sunday. Dry weather should prevail. Cooler
air will slide in Sunday, with highs in the mid 50s northeast to the
low 60s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

Mid level ridging will be dominant over the region Sunday night into
the day Tuesday, then breaks down as a shortwave trough approaches
and tracks over the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Northwest
flow returns toward the end of the period as a strong ridge builds
over the Rockies.

At the surface, high pressure will be over the Northern Plains when
the period begins, but pushes quickly to the east by Monday morning.
Precipitation chances return late Monday night, mainly across the
eastern CWA, and look to continue into the day Wednesday as low
pressure tracks across the Central Plains. High pressure moves back
over the area on Thursday behind the exiting low.

Temperatures will be near to above normal through the period, with
highs mainly in the 50s to mid 60s. Sunday night will be cool with
the surface high overhead, mainly in the lower to mid 30s. Lows will
generally be in the upper 30s to mid 40s through the remainder of
the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

Other than some patchy MVFR fog around KATY early this morning,
VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.




LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.