Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221535 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1035 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

Quite a bit of drizzle occurring across the region late this
morning shown on obs and webcams. Thus, added areas of drizzle into
the forecast into the afternoon. Otherwise, lowered highs for the
day also with the thick cloud cover and caa. May have to lower
them even more.

UPDATE Issued at 626 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 411 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

Southwest to slight ridging remain at 500MB across the
Northern Plains as a 500MB low moves across the Pacific Northwest.
Plenty of moisture stuck below 800MB will result in a cloudy day,
with just a low probability of light showers and possibly even a
thunderstorm. No severe weather is expected, and the trend is to
limit the shower potential overall compared to model output. High
pressure over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will keep a ridge
extended over much of our area through tonight. Temperatures will
likely end up 5-10 degrees below normal today, topping out in the
60s.

A sfc low becoming better organized across western NE on Friday will
slowly push increased moisture into our region tonight into Friday.
Warmer air and breezy east to southeasterly winds will surge in
Friday into Friday night as a warm front crosses. With some improved
mixing as the lower clouds exit, we could mix into the 30 to near
35kt 900MB winds. The low level jet will strengthen Friday night to
40-45kts above the inversion. The Pacific Northwestern 500MB low
will be able to sink across UT Friday morning, before ejecting
northeastward across WY Friday evening.

The sfc low will shift across ND Saturday, allowing a cold front to
swing over eastern SD. This will bring our best chance of strong to
possibly severe storms to eastern SD and west central MN. Drier air
will slide in from the west during the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

A mid level trough and associated shortwave energy will track across
the Northern Plains Saturday night through the day Monday. Northwest
flow then dominates until ridging builds over the central part of
the country Tuesday night and Wednesday.

When the period begins, surface low pressure will over south central
Canada/North Dakota, but there is little agreement on how strong the
low will be at that time. The GEM and ECMWF are then in better
agreement with the low pushing eastward fairly quickly, while the
GFS only takes the low to Minnesota, then keeps in nearly stationary
there until late in the period. The first two solutions would result
in a dry forecast after Saturday night, while the GFS brings wrap
around precipitation over the central and eastern CWA and keeps it
there into the day Tuesday. After discussion with surrounding
offices, have made some adjustments to pops and weather. From Monday
night on, will keep a small pop going across the east, but have
removed pops across the central and west as it was agreed upon that
the GFS solution is likely overdone.

Temperatures will be below normal through the period, with highs in
the 60s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Saturday night, then in the 40s through the remainder of the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

IFR/MVFR cigs currently in place across the entire CWA, and are
expected to stay through the the day. The cigs will become IFR
across the entire area this evening and remain that way through
the overnight hours. Scattered rain showers are possible across
the west late in the TAF period. Have opted to not mention in the
TAFs at this time due to timing uncertainty.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin



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