Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
221 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Still looks like a fairly wet night for the eastern cwa. Upper low
over the Great Basin will lift northeast tonight, and should in the
process spread showers northeast across much of the cwa along and
east of the Missouri River valley. H3 progs indicate a jet streak
traveling across the region, along with a fair amount of progged H7
omega.  So, have no real problem with sct/likely pops overnight as
available moisture should be sufficient.

It should start to slowly clear off on Tuesday from southwest to
northeast across the cwa, as the upper low tracks away from the
region. Lows tonight should be relatively mild given all the clouds
across the region. Tuesday will be cool with again plenty of clouds
continuing across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The extended period looks to remain dry until the latter half of the
weekend into early next week, when models show a system moving into
the region. With timing and track issues still to be resolved, left
the inherited SuperBlend POPs as is until better model agreement is

As for temperatures, a cool surface high will be over the area
tomorrow night. Will need to see what cloud cover does, but if
conditions clear out, readings are likely to drop a bit below
SuperBlend. For right now, did drop ABR a few degrees as signs do
point towards eventual clearing. Otherwise, the extended period
features pleasant temperatures with highs generally in the 60s and


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Expansive deck of MVFR CIGs will persist across the region through
the TAF forecast period. At times, KATY may sneak into IFR. KPIR
may begin to get back into VFR by late morning Tuesday, but
conditions will largely remain MVFR through the forecast period.
Another area of precipitation will move northward into the region
this evening with VSBY possibly going into MVFR.




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