Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 031919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WIDESPREAD SMOKE /FU/ CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. VSBY IS GENERALLY 3SM TO 4SM ACROSS
THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH VSBY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING KATY AT
THE MOMENT. THE SMOKE IS ALSO CREATING A CIG LAYER BUT IT IS VFR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTUAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT CAN EXPECT SMOKE TO ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT



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