Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 232334 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
634 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

With high pressure over the region, the weather remains quiet. No
major changes planned to the current forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Clouds have departed through the afternoon, with mostly clear skies
over most of the CWA. Still watching a batch of clouds sliding south
across eastern ND which may affect the Coteau region later this
evening. Lows tonight will largely depend on cloud cover, which
looks to affect mainly eastern areas, but the big question is areal
coverage. With a surface high moving in tonight, winds will go light
and temps will drop nicely. Lowered temps away from SuperBlend, more
towards to colder MET guidance. Only thing that may keep temps up
just a tad is the higher dewpoints/higher low level moisture over
the area. This will also lead to some fog potential as well so have
included that in favored areas.

High pressure will move off to the east on Monday, with increasing
southeast winds through the day. Conditions will become breezy/windy
over central SD and have once again raised winds a bit above
SuperBlend. This was a collaborative effort from surroundings

Will then be watching precipitation move into the region on Tuesday
as low pressure ejects into the central Plains. Models continue to
hit the eastern CWA the hardest with shower potential and POPs are
now in the likely category along and east of the James River for
Tuesday afternoon and evening. With upslope flow over the Coteau
during the duration of event, could see higher precip totals in this
region, and models do hint at this.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Longer range models support similar output for Wednesday and
Thursday, high pressure building over the region and dry conditions.
Beyond that, forecaster confidence takes a large dive as models
become out-of-sync handling the timing/track of s/ws moving through
upper level steering flow days 5 through 7. Presently, Thursday
looks like the warmest day of the period before a strong cold
front(timed differently in the models) sweeps through the region
turning things markedly colder heading into the front end of the


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Some mvfr stratus/fog is again possible toward morning near KATY
and KABR. While model guidance is also hinting at some fog for
KPIR and KMBG this appears less likely due to increasing
southeasterly winds overnight. All sites should be vfr by 16z.




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