Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 220545 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BE SPINNING OFF A COUPLE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST BRINGING US CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL
THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE CWA WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER
THE CWA. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 TO 75 DEGREES. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE EC...WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE/WAA AREA LIFTING INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE MUCAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST LIFT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME ACROSS
THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS AREA MAY STAY DRY AS THE EC
SHOWS. OTHERWISE...THIS FIRST WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTH WHILE THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE/WAA MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
MUCAPE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT. THUS...HAVE BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH
CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES THOUGH...MODELS STILL
BRING QPF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH APPEAR TO BE THE
TWO DAYS WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE
PERIOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
VALID TAF TIME PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
KPIR AREA FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN


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