Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 091726 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1126 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1012 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Still some cloud cover lingering over mainly the James River
Valley region, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. No changes made
to winds or temperatures at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Continue to watch stratus deck slide south across the eastern
Dakotas and MN. Have been adjusting sky cover accordingly based on
satellite trends and expected gradual erosion of clouds through the
morning and afternoon. There are also quite a few flurries within
the stratus, as evidenced by upstream obs and radar. Had already
inserted chance/likely flurries for eastern areas of the CWA last
evening, and recently extended this until 18Z today. Only very minor
reductions in visibility have been noted, with no accums expected.

For later today, will be watching a warm front move into the western
CWA with mixing winds turning northwesterly. With 925mb temps rising
into the lower single digits above zero Celsius, we should see some
mild temps moving into the western counties. 21Z 925mb temps are a
couple ticks warmer across central SD compared to 21Z yesterday, so
took yesterday`s highs for MBG and PIR and added a couple degrees.
Over the eastern CWA, low level temps stay on the chilly side, with
less favorable mixing, so cooler upper 20s to lower 30s will be all
that`s reached.

The warm front continues marching east across the rest of the CWA
overnight, with northwest breezes being maintained. 925mb temps stay
on the mild side as well, so not expecting much of a drop off in
lows tonight, with readings mainly in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Highly amplified long wave pattern is expected to persist through
much of the period, but should start to de-amplify toward the end of
the forecast period. It still appears the main threats for pcpn will
come in two rounds. The first is Sunday night and Monday, the next
Wednesday night and Thursday with more chances for pcpn over next
weekend. GFS continues to indicate a pretty robust looking PV
anomaly moving through early Monday. Most of the pcpn associated
with this energy will be over the far northeast part of the CWA.
Gusty winds will also accompany the system, likely stronger than
the in-house blend. Next decent wave blows through Wednesday
night with another chc of pcpn over the northeast CWA. The rest
of the period looks fairly uneventful. Temperatures overall will
favor near to above normal, especially the western parts of the
state which will be closer to the influence of mid level ridging.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

An area of MVFR cigs will remain over parts of the eastern CWA
through mid afternoon or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the area through midday Sunday.




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