Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 260529 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1229 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Forecast is in fair shape. Not sure if storms will be able to
maintain themselves overnight given somewhat meager moisture.
However, a LLJ is expected to develop and stretch from sw SD to
nc/ne SD so will, for now, maintain low pops through the night
within the LLJ axis.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Shower and thunderstorm chances will be good through most of the
short term as the westerly upper level flow early on turns northwest
towards the end of the short term. This flow will continue to bring
one short wave after another over the region. At the surface, a
frontal zone stretched across North Dakota late this afternoon will
make its way slowly south through Tuesday night/early Wednesday. As
this occurs, the warm, moist, and unstable south winds will become
northeast into Wednesday and Wednesday night as Canadian high
pressure pushes in drier and less humid air. Severe weather does not
look to be a great possibility over the next few days as the deep
layer shear does not look good except southwest in the region.
Tuesday looks like another very warm/hot day with highs in the mid
80s to the lower 90s. Wednesday will cool down some as Canadian air
pushes in on northeast winds with highs in the upper 70s to the mid
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

The upper level long wave pattern will feature low pressure over the
Hudson Bay Region and high pressure over the southwest CONUS. This
leaves the Northern Plains under northwest flow through Friday.
Several shortwaves will influence the region, however models are
pretty conservative on moisture/instability through this time frame.
Very mild temperatures as well, with highs in the low 80s.
The upper level pattern begins to transition for the weekend as the
high pressure ridge slides over the central US. This should result
in a drier and warmer conditions (highs nudging back into the upper
80s and 90s) through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through Tuesday. TSRA
is possible at KMBG late tnt and again on Tuesday aftn.  KABR may
see some TSRA toward morning.  KATY and KPIR should stay mostly dry
through the rest of the dark hours.  All terminals could see some
convection on Tuesday aftn and night.  The highest chance for severe
weather looks to be around KPIR Tuesday aftn/evening.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Wise



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