Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 160521 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1121 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Issued at 837 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Some fairly minor adjustments to cloud cover and temperatures
have been made this evening as the mercury is falling a bit
further than originally progged. However, the temp fall should end
shortly as pressure falls invade the plains, and a batch of
stratus drops into the northeast part of the cwa. No other changes
expected overnight.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 321 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

A broad area of high pressure will sink southward across the eastern
portion of the region tonight. As winds become light and variable,
temperatures should plummet fairly quickly. A developing low
pressure system west of the region will strengthen the pressure
gradient after 6Z with winds becoming southerly over the western
CWA. The southerly winds should spread eastward by 12Z Thursday with
temperatures likely warming before sunrise. The low pressure system
will reach western SD by 18Z with strong southerly winds expected
for this CWA. The highest winds should occur between the Missouri
and James River around 15Z, then the James Valley eastward between
18-21Z. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph
will be possible. Based on half KM winds of 37 knots, will hold on
issuing a wind advisory with this forecast package. High
temperatures across the forecast area will vary greatly on Thursday.
With 925 mb temps around 0Z in NE SD should produce temps in the
upper 30s, to the lower 40s. Central SD will see 925 mb temps of
+17C should yield highs in the upper 50s, to the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

The long term models show good agreement from Thursday night through
Sunday and then diverge with their solutions early to mid next week.
The largest differences occur between the GFS and EC in the middle
of next week. Until then, the models show an upper level low
pressure trough off the Pacific Northwest coast Thursday night. This
will move east southeast and across our region through Friday night
along with its associated surface cold frontal boundary. This looks
to be the only chance at this time for any precipitation through
most of the long term. Although, with weak lift with this system
along with little moisture, any precipitation amounts should be
light from Thursday night into Friday night. Upper ridging builds
out west and moves east into our region through Sunday and Monday.
For Monday through Wednesday, the models again show upper level
troughing moving in from the west and northwest with each model
showing its progression/development to the east and southeast
differently. The EC and Canadian agree fairly well come Wednesday
while the GFS has much cooler heights over our region along with
some snowfall moving in. Therefore, the consensus pops at this time
look good with slight chances for Wednesday until models come into
better agreement.

With mainly Pacific flow through the period and weak systems, don`t
expect any big cool downs at this time. Highs are expected to be
mainly in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday with some lower 50s on
Sunday and Monday across the southwest CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

A deck of mvfr cigs over katy/kabr should gradually lower into
ifr. Also, patchy mvfr fog is possible along the edge of the
stratus late tnt, as depicted by several cams. Improvement in the
cigs will commence mid to late morning. At this time kmbg/kpir
are expected to remain low cloud free, but it will be close at
kmbg as the deck settles in just east of the terminal.




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