Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 200218 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
918 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. AM BANKING ON MID/HIGH
CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE IMPACT OF CLOUD-COVER ON LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS WELL AS WHERE PRECIP-NO PRECIP LINE ENDS
UP BEING DRAWN TONIGHT BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF NORTHWARD MOVING
PRECIP SHIELD LIFTING UP OUT OF NEBRASKA.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND CLOUD-COVER IS
INCREASING STEADILY FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE RUNNING GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH. THE FORECAST AREA
IS DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT THERE IS A RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTH OUT OF
NEBRASKA...HEADING TOWARD THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
NEBRASKA...THE PRECIPITATION ITS GENERATING IS STILL FORECAST TO
PUSH UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FREE FALLING INTO SUB-FREEZING RANGE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. INTRODUCED SOME
PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS VERY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS
THAT WOULD REQUIRE A FROST ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ASIDE FROM LIGHT RAIN TERMINATING
OR SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY REBOUNDING TO A DAY/NIGHT TIME RANGE CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WITH THE UPPER TROF
DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS...EJECTING ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INITIALLY WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA...BUT THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH
DEPICT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOISTURE THANKS TO ONE OR TWO WAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE TROF BEFORE THE MAIN LOW MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THESE SYSTEMS...SO
MUCAPE VALUES ARE LOW...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO OR A TAD BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PLENTIFUL
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO KPIR
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CIGS AT KPIR SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...TDK



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