Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 011209 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
709 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN AND THE ODD THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AM
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER OF THESE WEAK WAVES. ONCE THIS WAVE IS
THROUGH...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH NAM PROFILES SHOW A
DEGREE OF WEAK INSTABILITY SO CANT RULE OUT A FEW HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TYPE STORMS IN NEUTRAL FLOW ALOFT. IT MAINLY JUST DEPENDS
ON THE DEGREE OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THE NEXT WAVE...TOPPING THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE NOW...WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
VERY LIMITED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
MUCAPE AVAILABLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. NAM
INSTABILITY IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...AND CONFIDENCE IS ALSO REDUCED AS
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
BULLSEYE...NAM WEST...GFS EAST. IT DOESNT HELP THAT THE GEM SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE...SO HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE CWA WITH 50 TO 60 POPS.
EVEN AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...PROFILES REMAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO CHANGES FROM SUPERBLEND MADE THIS MORNING TO THE EXTENDED.
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING STILL APPLIES. THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURE PROGS LOOK WARMEST SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EARLY MORNING SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH HAVE INTRODUCED WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOME RATHER SHORT-LIVED /MAINLY/ MARGINAL VFR
CONDITIONS EITHER FROM LIGHT GROUND FOG FORMING OR BKN STRATUS
CAUGHT IN THE MORNING THERMAL INVERSION. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO RETURN /AND PREVAIL/ TO VFR. STILL
A FEW MORNING SHOWERS TO POTENTIALLY MOVE OVER THE KABR/KATY
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...PROBABLY WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MUCH LATER
IN THE DAY TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER TERMINALS IN THIS CWA.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN


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