Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 150852
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
352 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

High pressure has begun to nose down out of Canada into North
Dakota. This will send a backdoor front across the CWA, stalling
along the NE/SD state line around the early afternoon hours. With
northeast flow, high temperature forecast has been lowered,
especially along and north of highway 14. Will continue the trend of
favorable mixing out of low level humidity, particularly across
central South Dakota.

The edge of the high will skip across northeast South Dakota
tonight, and with low humidity we should see fairly pleasant
temperatures.

As the high continues on its path southeast, a gradient forms across
the state, about 10mb. This, combined with pressure falls around 7mb
and environmental winds through 10kft around 20-30kts will result in
some gustiness, though mixed winds fall short of 25mph. We should
mix fairly deeply as well, so will go a few degrees warmer and drier
than blended guidance. This will put us close to Red Flag
conditions, and the grassland fire danger shows Very High for
several counties.

We will see warm temperatures overnight with the flow becoming more
southwesterly as a low moves across central Canada. As such, have
also increased temperatures for Monday above blended guidance as
flow remains southwesterly ahead of a slow moving cold front.  This
front will provide the focus for convection.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

The long term looks to be more active across the cwa with
temperatures near to around 5 degrees above normal through the
period. Upper level high pressure will cover most of the southern
U.S. from Monday night through Friday with the upper level flow over
our region varying from southwest to west northwest with troughing
off the west coast. At the surface, after a boundary pushes through
Monday night, the winds across the CWA will be mainly from the east
to northeast until Thursday night into Friday as they turn south.
These winds will be bringing in the slightly cooler air. After
Monday night, the surface boundary will be moving back and forth
across the region during the rest of the period as one short wave
trough after another moves in from the west. Thus, expect several
rounds of scattered showers/storms from Monday night through Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Light rain showers (and an occasional rumble of thunder) at KMBG
should be dissipated by 07Z. Radar trends suggest convection could
reach all the way to and impact KPIR for a couple of hours, early
on, in the 06Z TAF cycle. Otherwise, dry and VFR describes weather
at all four terminals over the next 24 hours.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr



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