Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 030223 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
923 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

TOR WATCH 247 WAS CANCELLED AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE REGROUPING MAINLY ACROSS SERN NODAK. IT`S POSSIBLE
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO SLIP DOWN AND CLIP FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WC MN. A COUPLE UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE
EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS AND THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS THE
SUPPORT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND A VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER /PER 00Z KABR RAOB/. THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION BEING
MONITORED IS DOWN ALONG THE SODAK/NEBRASKA BORDER. JONES/LYMAN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING I-90 CORRIDOR/ COULD BE UNDER THE GUN FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS. ALSO INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN MENTION TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 212 LATER TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

ALSO WORTH NOTING...LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL IS HEADED FOR THE BORDER
OF THE DAKOTAS AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER INTO CAMPBELL COUNTY
WITHIN THE HOUR. CURRENTLY...THIS CELL IS MOVING INTO THE MOST
TORNADO-FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT /ACCORDING TO THE MOST
RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM SPC/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
STORM /WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/. ALSO
MONITORING THE STORMS GATHERING STEAM OUT ACROSS SWRN SODAK/NWRN
NEBRASKA. THE MIXED LAYER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IS
EXTREMELY DEEP /KENNEBEC CO-OP OBSERVATION CAME IN THIS EVENING
WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES/ THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH HEIGHTENS CONCERNS THAT IF STORMS
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE COULD
BE AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT/OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

CONVECTION FINALLY BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OF UP TO 3000 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF UP TO 40
KNOTS AND LITTLE TO NO CAP...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE IN GOOD POPS AT THIS TIME FOR TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. OTHERWISE...THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH/END INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HAVE CUT BACK OR TAKEN OUT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST
LONG AS A WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO WHERE THE PCPN WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES. THE LATEST GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PCPN. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ON
SUNDAY AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY
GIVEN TAF LOCATION IS A BEST GUESS. THUS WILL MENTION A FEW HOURS OF
VCTS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. AFTER 10Z...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING CIGS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR. CIGS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FALL TO
IFR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY IFR MENTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN



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