Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 250911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
311 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Only real forecast challenge is the winds today. Not much of a
gradient, however 1/2km winds are close to 30kts. A westerly
component will aid in mixing, but at the same time we will
experience widespread weak warm advection. Additionally, our snow
cover will limit mixing. Mixed winds in BUFKIT only top out
around 20kts. Additionally, downslope conditions will also aid in
enhancement in the lee of the Coteau. Will continue to mention
blowing snow today, but appears the main issue will be drifting
onto road surfaces warmed by the sun, but still below freezing
resulting in slick spots. Otherwise the next 24 hour period will
be uneventful.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

The region will be between surface high pressure to the south and
low pressure to the north Monday morning. A weak frontal boundary
will track across the CWA Monday night, with high pressure settling
in on Tuesday. The models are beginning to come into closer
agreement with a low pressure system set to track across the Central
Plains on Wednesday to near the Great Lakes on Thursday. As far as
precipitation with this system, the GFS and ECMWF continue to keep
it south and east of the area, while the slightly further north
Canadian brings some light snow to the far eastern CWA Wednesday
night into Thursday. High pressure will bring quiet conditions
Thursday night through Friday night. Another low pressure system
approaches on Saturday, but for now, there is pretty good agreement
that most of the precipitation associated with it will remain north
of the CWA, so will just go with small POPs across the northern part
of the area.

Mild temperatures will be the rule throughout the extended period,
with highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s, and overnight lows in the
upper single digits to the teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

VFR conditions will continue across the west at KPIR and KMBG. An
area of IFR stratus is sitting over the lee side of the coteau and
will affect KATY until the system that has been affecting the
region this evening finally exits. Before the west winds increase,
there could be some patchy MVFR fog near KABR and KATY. The other
concern is some patchy MVFR cigs currently in western ND. Though
not forecast to do so, they could make it far enough south to
impact KMBG.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
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