Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 241730 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1130 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Forecast in fine shape overall. Band of rain/showers are moving
quickly southeast, and should be out of the cwa by early
afternoon. Temperatures are already near highs in many locations,
but caa behind the front will likely keep temperatures from rising
much today. Winds will be gusty but solid advisory criteria looks
iffy. Will continue to monitor winds and the potential for
possibly axing the advisory early.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

A fast moving front will push across the forecast area this morning.
This front will bring about a 6 hour period of stronger winds to the
area starting around 8 am and continuing through early afternoon. A
wind advisory is in effect. Will keep the advisory in place, but the
strongest winds look to be fairly brief with the frontal passage
then tapering off fairly quickly.

Watching the radar trends and latest model runs, feel any
precipitation should stay in ND. However, will keep some small pops
going mostly across the far northeast portion.

Temperatures today again will be very mild with good mixing along
the front. This front however is not bringing in very cold air, but
high temps should be generally a bit cooler than Thanksgivings
record setting day. Do not expect any records today, but temps will
still be running 15-25 degrees above normal.

Mostly clear skies expected tonight along with wind speeds less than
10 mph as high pressure settles in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The large scale upper level pattern will feature a western CONUS
ridge that gradually slides over the central CONUS by early next
week. This pattern will feature above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. In fact, as Monday rolls around a strong southwesterly
flow/warm air advection pattern sets up and temperatures are again
expected to rise to into the 50s and 60s (some 20 to 25 degrees
above normal for this time of the year). It looks like a bit of a
pattern change Tuesday through the end of the week. Late
Monday/Tuesday, models suggest a large scale upper level trough will
slide across the region, the best forcing however, will remain north
of our area so a dry forecast persists. RELATIVELY cooler air will
filter in behind the front with highs topping out somewhere in the
40s Tuesday (still around 10 degrees above normal for this time of
the year). A closed low pressure system develops over the southwest
CONUS and tracks across the southern plains states Wednesday,
quickly followed by a long wave trough dropping in from the
northwest on Thursday. Still, very little chance of any accumulating
precipitation is forecast for our CWA at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Showers will exit the region early, but winds will continue to be
gusty for the afternoon. Vfr cigs/vsbys are expected through the
entire valid period at all terminals.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST /3 PM MST/ this afternoon for
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Scarlett
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...TDK



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