Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 311738 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR WHERE WEB-CAMS SUGGEST 1/4
MILE OF VISIBILITY. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR SQUEEZING OUT THE
LLM IS PRODUCING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON IS SLOWER ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.
THUS HAVE TRIED TO REMOVE POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL
CLOSER TO 0Z.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE CONVERGING ON THE REGION
TODAY...ONE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL ON OUR CWA TODAY...HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL ONLY
SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING...BUT THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER
BECOMES VERY DEEP AS THE COLUMN COOLS OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE QPF
VALUES ARE LOW...SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH. FOR
THE MOST PART STILL FORECASTING SNOW TOTALS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH
RANGE /SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA/...ALTHOUGH
TRIED TO BACK OFF ON AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.

COLD DRY AIR QUICKLY TAKES OVER. COMBINED WITH A STIFF NORTHERLY
WIND...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE TWENTY BELOW
ZERO RANGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A
WEAK...FAST MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN THE REGION
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT DURING THE PERIOD. AFTER NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY...WILL SEE A COOLER DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL THEN SEE WAA
RETURN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...WITH
STEADILY IMPROVING VSBY IN LIGHT FOG. THE CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BRIEFLY...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM 3Z TO 10Z
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ENDING FAIRLY
QUICKLY AT KABR/KATY. IN GENERAL...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AS NORTH WINDS GUST TO 25
KTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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