Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280548 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1248 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Issued at 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2016

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1003 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

No major changes in the forecast for overnight.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

Main points covered in the short term are the warm temperatures
followed by a weak system Saturday.

Southerly flow ahead of a low pressure area that will move across
North Dakota will draw 850mb temperatures close to the 99th
percentile across the forecast area with the peak core of warm air
moving overhead overnight tonight. Mixing will improve Friday with a
surface trof shifting winds around to the northwest. The gradient
will weaken in the post trof airmass so winds are not expected to be
strong but the degree of mixing will counter any weak cold advection
and thus we should see widespread temperatures some 15 to 25 degrees
above average for Friday, falling shy of records however.

An area of high pressure will move south out of Canada over the
course of Saturday, but we will also see a weak wave traverse the
area. Despite weakening, there will be enough broad-scale lift from
a right entrance region, around 10 microbars, to result in some
light rain. Daytime heating will generate some shallow strato
cumulus thanks to cooler mid level temperatures, which will
inhibit heating, but dissipate in the late afternoon allowing for
ideal radiational conditions Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2016

The long term looks to be mainly dry across the region along with
above normal temperatures. The long term begins with upper level
ridging across the central part of the U.S. with a large low
pressure trough off the west coast. A piece of energy will come off
of this trough and across our region Sunday night and Monday. It
looks like the track will take most of the light rain showers with
it to our north. The main trough off the west coast will then move
into the southwest U.S. Monday night through Tuesday night leaving
our region in the dry northern branch of the jet stream through
Thursday. With the mild Pacific flow through the period,
temperatures will be from 5 to 15 degrees above normal with highs
mostly in the mid 50s to the mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2016

Patchy MVFR fog remains a possibility in the east through sunrise.
There is a low level jet just off the surface streaming from the
southwest while surface winds are light from the southeast,
resulting in some low level wind shear potential. Otherwise it
should be VFR at all terminals through the valid taf period.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Dorn is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.