Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 172016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
316 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Rain showers will continue to slowly push eastward over the eastern
half of the CWA this afternoon, with additional shower and
thunderstorm development occurring across the west in association
with a frontal boundary over the area. For the most part, do not
expect any severe weather with this, but as the storms progress
eastward later this afternoon, they will encounter higher
instability, which may lead to a stronger, or possibly severe, storm
or two. The convective activity will come to an end around or
shortly after sunset, with quiet conditions the remainder of the
night and into Sunday morning. High pressure will drop over the
western half of the state on Sunday, but the east will still be
under the influence of the exiting low pressure system, so may see
some additional shower or weak thunderstorm development in the

Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s, with highs
on Sunday in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

The long term portion of the forecast begins with the Northern
Plains under northwest flow aloft. This pattern will keep
temperatures on the cool side in our eastern CWA, while the west
should climb into the 80s on Monday and Tuesday.

An area of low pressure crossing North Dakota on Wednesday will
spread warm temperatures over the region. Thunderstorms will be
possible in eastern SD Wednesday afternoon as a very pronounce dry
line interacts with an unstable airmass. That said, models are not
very enthusiastic with QPF amounts. A stronger system with an upper
level trough will cross the region on Thursday. This system seems to
be trending north with a low chance for thunderstorms in eastern SD
and western MN.

Beyond Thursday, models disagree with the upper level flow pattern
and additional chances for pcpn.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

VFR cigs will prevail across the area this afternoon and through
much of the overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the area this afternoon into the early evening,
with the precipitation coming to an end around or shortly after
sunset. An area of MVFR cigs may develop across the east late
tonight into early Sunday morning, affecting KABR and KATY.




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