000
FXUS63 KABR 190842
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ONE WORD CAN DESCRIBE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WET.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF LLM...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL. HOWEVER WITH THE CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BASED ON THE NAM12...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WITH
NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS A BETTER PORTION OF THE CWA. BY
21Z...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE NEAR KPIR...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR. THE
LLM IN COMBINATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTH OF THE
REGION SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AFTER 0Z WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE UNTIL AFTER 0Z.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN MODELS ARE PINGING
ON SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FIRE OFF SOME CONVECTION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BELOW THE RIDGE. WITH ONLY LIMITED SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME THERE IS LITTLE TO SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
LIFTING MECHANISM UNTIL A LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A LLJ IN PLACE. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND
POPS FOR NOW SINCE IT IS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY NEED TO FINE TUNE TIMING AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
RAIN ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF ALL OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS
ALONG WITH SHOWERS. VFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN