Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221650 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1050 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
A COUPLE OF CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
FIRST...AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED...MAINLY IN THE HON/MHE/MDS
REGION...BUT DOES EXTEND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN SPINK AND CLARK
COUNTIES. THEREFORE ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION INTO THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. SECOND...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS EVEN MORE IN
THE LEE OF THE SISSETON HILLS TODAY. WITH THE FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THE PEEVER OB ALREADY HAS HAD GUSTS NEAR
40 MPH THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH FOR THE MOST PART WEBCAMS ARE NOT
SHOWING ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES. REGARDLESS...ADDED A PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION INTO THE FORECAST AND ISSUED AN SPS TO GIVE
TRAVELERS A HEADS UP. DID NOT MODIFY THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THE DIURNAL TREND IS MAYBE A LITTLE SLOW...BUT BELIEVE
AS WINDS GAIN A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THREE CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BRING A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THIS CWA.

THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAW
WARMER AIR OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S AND
40S. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE A DOWN SLOPE WIND EVENT ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS WHICH
COULD CAUSE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES. HOWEVER A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE RECENT SNOWFALL SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING SNOW.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOWING A DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB. THAT SAID A
FEW HI-RES MODELS...INCLUDING GEM...ARE SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF
QPF FOR OUR TWO MINNESOTA COUNTIES. BASED ON THE HI-RES
MODELS...WILL ADD SCHC POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA WITH THE P-TYPE
BEING FREEZING RAIN.

THE LAST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS LACK A DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS SUPPORT A RAIN EVENT AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL EARLY ON BUT SHOW SOME IMPORTANT
DISAGREEMENTS LATER ON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT ANY RATE...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
US INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THUS...MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WE WILL STILL
HAVE SOME LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION FROM THE EXITING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO WARM WITH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE SNOW COVER GONE. THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS GUIDANCE
WAS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE EC GUIDANCE. BASED ON
THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...IT WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE EC GUIDANCE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAYED WITH ALLBLEND AT THIS TIME AND
WILL LIKELY SEE THESE TEMPERATURES PUSHED UPWARDS QUITE A BIT IN
LATER FORECASTS. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED
IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH SOME 50S OUT WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR STRATUS/FOG WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF ATY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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