Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 241053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN HOT...HUMID AND AT TIMES STORMY
CONDITIONS TO THE WEST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MUCH MORE TRANQUIL SHORT TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS DRIER EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE TO PUSH THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE AREA.

FOG AND STRATUS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...LIKELY
LENDING TO SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS AND 5 TO 8 KT WIND FROM THE EAST.
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP INTO THE 4 TO 5 MILE RANGE AND
WOULD EXPECTED A BIT MORE OF A DROP WITH TIME. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
PATCHY FOG THROUGH 12Z BUT LEAVE ANY DENSE MENTION OUT.

DURING THE DAY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LINGERING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS) SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CU START TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA.
GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL LIKELY BE IN FAR SW AREAS CLOSER TO
BETTER MOISTURE. IF TEMPS JUMP INTO THE 80S AS PROGGED...SURFACE
BASED CAPE IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THESE
SAME AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY EAST OF US 31. WHILE A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON FAR
WEST...NO CLEAR TRIGGER OR SIGNAL THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH MOST OTHER OFFICES AND REMOVED SLGT CHC OF STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK SLOWLY TO THE
EAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO PAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OH VALLEY SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH CONTD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY. LESS CLOUDINESS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE U80S/L90S. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AS SE CANADA SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD ADVECT L70S DWPTS BACK INTO THE AREA RESULTING
IN HEAT INDEX READINGS MONDAY 5-10DEGREES HIGHER THAN ACTUAL TEMPS.

A CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS MONDAY
NIGHT...PSBLY CAUSING SOME TSTMS TO REACH THE NRN PORTION OF OUR
CWA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME E-W ORIENTED AND SAG SLOWLY
SOUTH INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA TUE-TUE NGT. RATHER
WK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS LIMITED SVR RISK DESPITE THE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A PROBLEM AS PWATS
AROUND 2" POOL ALONG THE FRONT WITH SMALL MBE VECTORS SUGGESTING
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CELLS A POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WITH ECMWF/GEM
CONTG TO CUT-OFF LOW IN OVER WRN U.S. BY WED WHILE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE MOVG THE WRN TROF EAST INTO THE PLAINS. GFS SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTS A GOOD CHC OF TSTMS MID-WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY THE
WEEKEND... WHILE SLOWER ECMWF/GFS OFFER UP THE OPPOSITE SCENARIO.
GIVEN LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT AND POOR MODEL RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY...
STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH A CHC OF TSTMS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AND DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

STRATUS/FOG OVER THE AREA MAINLY IN MVFR AND LOW VFR RANGE ATTM
BUT OF SOME CONCERN IS LIFR CONDITIONS IN NW OH WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. DOUBT THIS WILL REACH FWA BEFORE MIXING OUT SO JUST
FCST MVFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING... WITH VFR THIS
AFTN. EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVELS REMAIN MOIST... BUT AGAIN EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT THE
TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


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