Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 190520
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
120 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu May 18 2016

High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather and gradual
warming through Friday. Highs will reach near 70 degrees Thursday
and Friday. A weak upper level system may bring increasing clouds
and a few light showers to areas mainly southeast of the Route 24
corridor late Friday into early Saturday. Dry conditions and
continued warming can be expected otherwise this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed May 18 2016

Short term period begins tranquil as a ridge of high pressure sinks
south across the lower Great Lakes. After some diurnal cumulus this
afternoon, especially along lake breeze boundary in the western half
of the forecast area, skies will clear out overnight and winds will
calm as ridge axis approaches. Main change to forecast is overnight
low temperatures being dropped several degrees from previous
forecast. With relatively dry boundary layer and optimal radiational
cooling setup, opted to lower min temps to near or below cooler
EC/MET guidance.

Quiet weather then expected through Friday as high pressure
dominates the region. Gradual warming trend expected with highs near
70 by Friday. Also, cut PoP`s significantly Friday night associated
with ejecting southern Plains energy through the Ohio Valley. Models
continue to trend further south with forcing and moisture, with
fairly dry forecast sounding. Therefore, cut PoP`s to slight chances
during the Friday night period, mainly along/SE of US-24.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed May 18 2016

Central CONUS ridging will slowly advect eastward through the Great
Lakes during the long term period. This will usher in a return flow
regime, with gradual warming temps Saturday through Tuesday, with
highs in the mid to upper 70s by midweek. This moisture return will
allow dewpoints to creep up to near 60 degrees by next Wednesday.
With the return of warmer temps and more humid conditions, quasi-
zonal "dirty" flow with several weak shortwaves will bring shower
and t-storm potential back to the area by late Tuesday, but quiet
and dry conditions are anticipated Saturday through at least
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

Strong high pressure/subsidence and dry air will remain over the
Great Lakes this period. A few diurnal cu possible but should
remain SCT with bases well above 3 kft. Given lack of
impact...opted to keep the TAF simple. Winds will also remain 6
kts or less.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...AGD


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