Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 251900
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO STAY FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECT TO SEE
PATCHES OF FOG FORM...GENERALLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


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