Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 151908
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
308 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

A cold front will exit the region this afternoon and most
precipitation will diminish in its wake. Gusty west to northwest
winds and steady or falling temperatures into the 50s can be
expected. A few lake effect rain showers are possible this
afternoon and evening. Lows tonight will be in the 40`s. Highs
Monday will be in the upper 50`s and low 60`s. High pressure will
then bring dry and very mild conditions for the rest of the week
with highs generally in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Brief/transient shot of cool/seasonable air the main weather story
into tonight and Monday in wake of potent shortwave lifting
northeast toward Quebec. Steepening low level lapse rates within
strong cold advection wing has resulted in rather raw/windy Sunday.
This shot of cold advection (delta T`s pushing 20C) and veered
northwest flow is eliciting a lake response...with coverage of lake-
effect showers maximizing this evening as convective layer depth
briefly increases to near 8 kft. Bumped up PoPs/Sky Cover a bit for
expected isolated to scattered lake effect shower coverage.

A trailing shortwave will dig through the Great Lakes region Monday
morning. Overall moisture quality is not very impressive, though
likely enough to slow clearing of lake clouds a bit compared to
previous thinking. Dry/cool with skies becoming mostly sunny
otherwise on Monday as backing winds and overspreading subsidence
brings an end to any lake effect activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Flow pattern becomes more high zonal into mid-week, followed by a
more amplified Western US trough-Eastern US ridge configuration late
week into next weekend. The result will be an extended stretch of
dry conditions, mainly clear skies, and above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Cold front was through terminals and winds had become west to
northwest and gusty. This will continue through mid to late
afternoon with gusts around 30 knots possible. Some MVFR Vis
restrictions still possible at KFWA for a couple hours with radar
showing some light showers post frontal. Restrictions at KSBN from
lake effect rain showers as a few have already brought MVFR and
IFR at times. Improving conditions late afternoon and this
evening with optimistic trend toward VFR with rising CIGS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lashley
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Lashley


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