Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221906
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH STORM
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW WHILE
EARLIER MCS DISSIPATING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NEW
CELLS STARTING TO FORM OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH UPPER JET WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS
DETACHMENT OF UPPER FORCING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR CONVECTION
MAINTAINING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE NW CWA AS DECENT MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...CAPES
AROUND 1500J/KG...SO IF CONVECTION IN IOWA IS ABLE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...HOWEVER FORMING RIGHT ALONG THICKNESS RIDGE WILL HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST LINGERING
CHANCES IN THE FAR SE CWA...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOR THE SE HALF WITH LOWS AROUND 70 WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S NW. COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

COMFORTABLE/FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS THROUGH. MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A FLATTER/SEMI-ZONAL WNW
REGIME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS
VEER MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT TO WORK ENE INTO
THE REGION. LEAD/WEAK SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCREASING MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING
FRONT SUPPORT INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS
TIME...MAINLY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

RE-AMPLIFICATION OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT ON LEADING
EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WX LIKELY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DAYTIME MIXING HAS WINDS STARTING TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER GRADIENT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CARRY A G22 AT
KSBN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MENTION AT KFWA. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SH/TSRA INTO THE AREA...BETTER INSTABILITY TO ACCOMPANY FRONT IN NW
CWA SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO AT KSBN BUT LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NOW. AMPLE LOW LEVEL  MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT COULD MAKE
FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG GRADIENT AS WELL
WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JAL


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