Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 292347
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
747 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO
RETURN...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE FORM OF SOME SNOWFALL. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN AND
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY
BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADING INTO THURSDAY. WITH
CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS DROPPING
OFF...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEMS REASONABLE...LOW 40S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BEFORE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS
APPROACHING THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THIS WILL PRESENT A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
LOOK LIKELY WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE A LIKELY BET ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE DAY BEFORE A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BEGIN MIXING IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ALL SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING AND
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS THE GROUND SHOULD STILL
BE TOO WARM. AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS A TENTH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT COULD SEE MAYBE HALF AN INCH...DEPENDENT UPON WHAT
KIND SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOING BEFORE THE GREATEST MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.

BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BEGIN PEEK THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OUT IN
THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MINOR CONCERN THAT LAKE ENHANCED STRATOCU FIELD TOO DENSE AND
STRENGTH OF 875MB BASED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS TOO STRONG
OVERNIGHT TO YIELD ANY SIGNIFICANT DISSIPATION...FOR MUCH/ALL OF
TONIGHT. REGARDLESS VFR MET CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. PERIOD OF EARLY AM CLEARING POSSIBLE...THOUGH NON
CRITICAL/DOESNT NECESSITATE ADDITIONAL BREAKOUT. MID/LATE MORNING
CU REGENERATION ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH BASED ALTOCU ASSOCD
WITH UPSTREAM NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...MURPHY


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