Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

725
FXUS63 KIWX 291745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

A weak upper level trough and stalled front will keep chances for
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the forecast
through Saturday...best chances during the afternoon and evening
hours. Partly to mostly cloudy otherwise into the weekend with
lows generally in the 60s and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday providing dry
conditions. A warm front will then bring renewed chances for
storms and humid conditions into the region for the middle to end of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Chaotic pattn sfc and aloft this aftn. Old synoptic fntl zone had
mixed into swrn zones w/composite outflw/wk cdfntl zone through
srn MI. Meanwhile aloft...w-e vort channel and wk mid lvl
frontogenesis overhead conts to persist ewd of fractured sw
disturbances extending fm se NE into wrn IL. Given stg
heating/destabilization ongoing xpc dvlpg convn ovr w/sw areas in
proximity to old synoptic bndry will expand ewd inadv of apchg
wave coming out of wrn IL and build ewd acrs nrn IN lt this aftn
and into OH by evening.

Otrws activity contg within composite bndry ovr srn MI into nw OH
likely to persist until lead sw disturbance pivots through this
evening. In all most areas esp nwd of the highway 24 corridor shld
see a more generous coverage of shra/tsra this aftn evening as
this sys works through the area. Contd wk flw aloft within an
appreciably moist airmass again points to localized heavy rainfall
yet without a more coherent focus aloft nor sig ll mass flux no
water related headlines needed.

Ltl chg xpcd on Sat as pattn aloft persists w/primary mid lvl trough
axis finally making a push east lt Sat night. Will expand prior pops
while emphasizing nrn half for btr implied chc both Sat aftn and eve
tied to diurnal heating cycle and persisting mid lvl convergence.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Ridging aloft to build sigly and spread ewd into the wrn Lakes
this pd as east Canada troughing breaks down although that appears
likely to redvlp twd dy8. Regardless lg scale pattn suggestive of
conv complexes dvlpg within nrn periphery of growing
heat/instability dome acrs the plains as erly as lt Tue yet deemed
moreso twd Wed and then persisting through Fri pending degree of
ridging that blds newd into the Grtlks. Regardless at this range
will truncate fallacious blended pops to lwr bound chcs given lack
of model based temporal consensus on both upr ridge placement and
intensity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Fog mainly staying south and west of the terminals this morning,
but close enough to mention mvfr vsbys in tafs through 13z. Apchg
shrtwv and rather moist airmass should result in cu dvlpg by
midday with shra and a few tstms psbl this aftn. Convection
coverage expected to be limited enough for just vcsh mention in
tafs attm. Diurnal cooling should lead to low level saturation
across the area late tonight with mvfr conditions or psbly lower.
With stnry front remaining over central Indiana, light e-ne winds
expected through the period.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...JT


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.