Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 231153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
653 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Issued at 630 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Widespread significant flooding will continue over northwest
Indiana and southwest lower Michigan with record crests on
several rivers. Light rain and fog this morning will give way to
dry conditions this afternoon. Rain will overspread the area
again tonight into Saturday morning from south to north, with a
wintry mix possible along and north of Route 6 Saturday morning.
Periods of rain are expected to continue through Saturday night,
with dry conditions becoming established for the Sunday through
Tuesday period. High temperatures today will range from the mid
40s across southwest Lower Michigan to the mid 50s across far
southeast portions of the area toward Lima. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the lower 30s northwest to around 40 far


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Some rivers were still yet to crest from earlier record rainfall
causing extensive flooding. Additional waves tracking along the
front could bring another half inch of rain to the hardest hit
areas; however, this additional rainfall should not have a major
impact on the current situation. Heavier rainfall amounts are
expected to fall south and east of Fort Wayne where about 1.75"
is expected from Portland to Lima. Will update the Hydrologic
Outlook to mention additional rainfall sending several rivers into
flood. Some lowlands are also likely to flood over these areas.

In addition to the rain, a light wintry mix is possible tonight
over far northern Indiana into northwest Ohio. There could be some
minor travel issues in the vicinity of Highway 6 around daybreak;
however, temperatures should warm quickly after sunrise bringing
the end to any travel issues.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

The main upper trof should linger over western North American
through the middle of this upcoming week. Mild weather can be
expected downstream of this system with highs generally in the mid
40s to the mid 50s through Wednesday. Little if any rain is
expected during this time as the main energy with this system
stays west of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

A low amplitude upper level wave and accompanying low level trough
will allow for west to east progression of generally light rain
showers this morning, which should end at KSBN after 13Z, and at
KFWA after 15Z. LIFR cigs are widespread this morning with gradual
improvement to IFR late morning/early afternoon. Confidence in
cigs diminishes mid-late afternoon into early afternoon with some
improvement possible before cigs deteriorate again late in this
forecast valid period, particularly at KFWA which will be in
closer proximity to next low level moisture advection surge
Saturday morning. Rain should overspread KFWA late tonight, but
will keep KSBN dry as stronger moisture advection does not work
until after 12Z Saturday. Did introduce a brief period of LLWS
conditions at KFWA early this morning given stronger low level
southwesterlies atop southeasterly near sfc winds.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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