Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 201458
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1058 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

WK SHRTWV OVER SRN WI/NRN IL WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...
LIKELY JUST RESULTING IN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAUSING PATCHY STRATO CU OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING... AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY FOR CU TO DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING TODAY. E-W
ORIENTED SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH A VERY WK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING A LITTLE BLO H85 TODAY... YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE U70S/L80S ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD
CONT TO SLOWLY MOISTEN/WARM WITH STAGNANT AIRMASS AND GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES AS SWRN CONUS RIDGE EXPANDS NEWD... LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN
TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BEFORE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF RACES SOUTHEAST DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM. ALSO...THE GFS
HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST 6 RUNS WITH NEARLY ALL LOW AND
HIGH FORECAST TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 90S. THESE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE GFS CAPE VALUES HAVE TRENDED MUCH LOWER LATE
TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONCERN WITH
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION PRESENT AND A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER FROM
850 MB TO 700 MB...IT MAY BE HARD FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE...EVEN
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
THE HIGHEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT. COOLER AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY. LOWS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST GFS/MEX. KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHALLOW FOG ACROSS MUCH OF NRN INDIANA
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY TO VFR WITH
PREDOMINANTLY SCT CLOUDS THE REST OF THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SSE WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW BR/FG TO FORM ONCE
AGAIN BUT WITH GRADIENT A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THIS MORNING EXPECT
VSBY RESTRICTIONS SIMILAR OR LESS THAN TODAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


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