Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 010810
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
410 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT STILL FEEL PLEASANT AS THEY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
60S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 70S COURTESY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND KEEP EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THAT IS AFTER TODAY. POST FRONTAL INVERSION HAS BEEN
QUITE STUBBORN GIVING WAY TO DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE N AND NE. HIGH EARLY JUNE SUN ANGLE SHOULD HOPEFULLY HELP
WIN THE BATTLE AND ALLOW FOR RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY
NW HALF OR SO FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE DEEPER MSTR
TO THE SOUTH. KEPT STATUS QUO FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT DID
INCREASING SPEED OF CLEARING SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON PER ABOVE
REASONING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEEN IN SE AREAS
ACROSS PARTS OF NW OHIO (LOW 60S) DUE TO THE LENGTH OF THE CLOUD
COVER LINGERING. IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT GENERAL FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE
SHORELINE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INLAND EXTENT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD END UP MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INVERSION SETTING UP BUT DESPITE THE
RECENT RAINFALL...OVERALL MSTR HAS BEEN MIXED OUT FAIRLY WELL.
NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE A DECENT SETUP FOR SOME GROUND FOG BUT ANY
THAT MAY DEVELOP SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED AT BEST SO NO MENTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...A TOUCH
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO EAST TX THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SE BY TUE PROVIDING DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DECENT EASTERLY
GRADIENT MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE L70S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA TUE. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TUE NGT THOUGH SOME
EASTERLY GRADIENT MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR WITH
LOWS FCST THE U40S/L50S.

ON WED THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND AS A WK
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SE AND SUBSEQUENTLY WK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. INVERTED TROF ASSOCIATED WITH CUT-OFF UPR LOW
OVER TN EXPECTED TO LIFT N-NW UP BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY THU PSBLY TRIGGERING SOME AFTN CONVECTION OVER SERN
PORTION OF CWA WHILE THE WK CDFNT CONTS TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND INTO OUR AREA ON FRI PROVIDING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS/ROCKIES WITH WK SHRTWVS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING SEWD
ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE SYSTEMS IN COMBINATION WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THESE WK
SYSTEMS CONTD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WARMING TREND EXPECTED TUE-FRI WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK... FOLLOWED BY JUST A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND WK CDFNT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF MVFR DECK WAS ATTEMPTING ERODE AS DRIER AIR
WAS SLOWLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE THUS
FAR WITH KBEH CLEARING OUT FOR A FEW HOURS AND NOW SOCKED BACK IN.
TRENDS LOOKING LESS THAN FAVORABLE TONIGHT FOR SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING AT KSBN...BUT HAVE CAUTIOUSLY LEFT VFR CONDITIONS
STARTING AT 9Z AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT.
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO LEAVE KFWA GIVEN PROXIMITY TO CUT
OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ENOUGH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
SHOULD OCCUR BY 18Z TO ALLOW FOR VFR CEILINGS WITH TRANSITION TO
THICKER CIRRUS SHIELD REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FISHER


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