Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 092314
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
714 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER OVER THE
REGION INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

EXTREMELY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD ASIDE FROM ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

REMNANT COLD FRONT/SFC TROF REINFORCED BY LK MI BOUNDARY LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT AN ISO RAIN
SHOWER MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS DIGGING S/W ACROSS LWR
MI TRANSLATES EASTWARD W/ LARGE SCALE TROF.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY VALUES.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS DOES OPEN THE DOOR BACK UP FOR SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS COMPLEXES DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA FUELED BY SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL ANCHOR SOUTH OF JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FIRST SUCH SETUP
OCCURS AS CONVECTION FIRES IN EASTERN IOWA/WEST ILLINOIS AND TRACKS
EAST. NAM/GFS VARY ON TIMING OF FEATURE (NAM FASTER WITH SAT AM
ARRIVAL TIME FRAME VS GFS MORE AFTERNOON). BOTH MODELS SHOW DECENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX WITH 30 TO 50 KTS 850 MB WINDS.
ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTENING WILL NEED TO TAKE PLACE...DO THINK THAT
CHANCES WILL STILL STARTING LATE FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE
DECREASED POPS A BIT FRI EVENING WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE OF NOTHING
MAKING IT HERE PRIOR TO 6Z SAT. POPS RAMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN WEST LATE
FRI NGT AND HAVE WENT MID RANGE CHC FOR SATURDAY ALL DAY AS MOST
MODELS (ECMWF THE OUTLIER) SHOWING CHANCES SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA.
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STALL OUT OF THE AREA SAT NGT INTO AT LEAST
SUNDAY ONE OR MORE WAVES AND POTENTIAL COMPLEXES TO MOVE ALONG IT.
AS NOTED BY OVERNIGHT SHIFT BETTER CHANCES SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE
AND LL FLOW SUPPORTS EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED YET BUT STILL
WARRANTS A SLIGHT NUDGE UP IN POPS. FOR THIS PERIOD. BEYOND
THAT...EFFECTIVE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION
WITH BEST FOCUS POSSIBLY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE TIME
MONDAY ARRIVES. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD FOR NOW ALTHOUGH ECMWF DOES HINT AT ADDITIONAL CHANCES
EVEN INTO TUESDAY. PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THINGS IN LATER
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPR MIDWEST MOVES SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE WRN
GRTLKS. ENHANCED CU FIELD AND SCT SHRA SE OF FWA EARLY THIS EVE
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVE. ANOTHER CONCENTRATED CU FIELD OVER NRN MI/LM/WI APPEARS TO BE
A RESULT OF A WK SHRTWV WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NRN INDIANA THU
MORNING AND COULD ENHANCE CU DEVELOPMENT HERE AS WELL... BUT WORST
CASE SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A SHORT LIVED VFR CIG.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


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