Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 270658

National Weather Service Northern Indiana
258 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Cloudy skies and cool temperatures expected today as low pressure
lifts out across the eastern Great Lakes. Highs today will range from
the upper 40s over south central Michigan to the mid 50s over
central portions of Indiana and Ohio.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Cold front associated with sw disturbance cutting through nrn
lower MI lagging back across ne IL/nw IN yet will accelerate ewd
through daybreak as system lifts out through the ern lakes.
Prefrontal trough still continues to drive sct shower development
over ern third of CWA although with a diminishing trend as low
level jet and attendant moisture flux shift east out of nw OH by
daybreak. Thus will drop prior lingering pops across the east
after daybreak.

Otherwise shallow but intense low level cold advection wing to shift
se behind departing sfc cyclone this morning. Even so delta t`s
marginal within shallow moisture layer underneath strongly subsident
regime aloft and will refrain from entertaining any pops. That said
extensive closed cell stratocu expected to result and will side with
colder guidance temps.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

High zonal flow continues southward of active nrn stream flow stuck
along and north of the US/Canadian border this period. Series of low
amplitude disturbances and accompanying sfc boundaries will
generally be devoid of significant low level moisture return not to
mention northward track of appreciable dynamical forcing. However
exception exists late Sat night into Sun morning tied to
frontogenetical response developing within coupled jet structure
aloft over the western lakes northward of stalling OH river frontal
zone. Deterministic run continuity not the best but consensus
signals good enough to follow blended pop bump. Other than brief
cooling Sun remainder of the period to feature well above normal
temps...especially Sat and Tue.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

LIFR/IFR conditions are expected to persist at KSBN overnight with
IFR conditions overspreading KFWA. Near surface moisture
convergence associated with sfc low pressure tracking across
northeast Illinois will allow LIFR conditions to continue to
spread across northern Indiana overnight. Eventual improvement to
cigs at or above 1k feet is expected after daybreak, but could be
slightly delayed from current forecast as near surface moisture
wraps back to the northwest. Dry air advection should eventually
dominate enough to take cigs back above fuel alternate conditions
this afternoon. Winds will be chaotic overnight as sfc low passes
eventually becoming northwest, with gusts increasing into the 15
to 20 knot range for late this morning/afternoon. Mainly dry
conditions expected post-12Z, with better focus for any lower
coverage light rain showers/sprinkles with weak lake response
expected to remain west of KSBN.





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