Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 262332
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
732 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST AIR STILL
RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND
OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS
THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN EXTRA
FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM GUIDANCE COLDEST
WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 20S. RECORD DATA
IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT.

                                       SBN             FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)    25 IN 1955      26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH AM)       -9 IN 1934      10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS IS MODELED TO CREST
MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS
FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM.
PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL
TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR A
TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HAVE OPTED FOR VFR CONDITIONS THIS PACKAGE AT BOTH TAF SITES.
LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUD DECK GENERALLY IN THE
4-5KFT RANGE. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME
LOWER CIGS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IMPACT MAINLY KSBN. WITH FLOW
VEERING THOUGH MOST OF THIS COULD BE JUST WEST OF TERMINAL.
THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP LOW END VFR CIG FOR NOW AND OBSERVE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CLOUDS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL PICK BACK UP FRIDAY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20-24 KNOTS
POSSIBLE OUT OF NORTHWEST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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