Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250520
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
120 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 758 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

a cold front will move slowly south and east across the Great
Lakes region late tonight and during the day Monday. Ahead of the
front very humid, and unstable air will favor the development of
thunderstorms late tonight and early Monday. After the front
passes...slightly cooler and much less humid air will settle into
the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Clouds continue to linger over NE corner of the CWA this
afternoon in the wake of multiple convective complexes that moved
across Michigan earlier. Southwest CWA has remained relatively
cloud-free and has become increasingly unstable as surface based
CAPEs have reached over 4000J/kg. Surface analysis has low
pressure centered over western Ontario with cold front extending
down through the mid/upper MS valleys and trailing back to frontal
wave in the plains. Surface low will move eastward across Ontario
and bring cold front to our western CWA this evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected as front moves through
as decent mass convergence along front will act on unstable warm
sector. Severe threat will be limited in a weakly sheared
environment as upper support remains detached to the north...but
remnant outflow boundary from earlier convection may serve as a
focus for stronger storms as front moves in. Cold front expected
to move through much of the CWA overnight...but may linger over
southern CWA into Monday morning as it takes on a slight E-W
orientation. Surface high pressure will then build into the region
providing a break from the heat and humidity mid week. Upper flow
becoming more zonal bringing temps back close to normal with highs
in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Zonal flow will have a series of weak disturbances moving across
the area and combine with stalled surface frontal boundary to
bring multiple chances for precip. Low confidence pattern as
models struggle to agree on timing/placement with these weaker
features. Best agreement among the medium range models is with
first short wave expected on Thursday. Beyond that model blend
yielding small chances into the weekend. Temps expected to remain
near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Band of rain with embedded ts ahead of a cdfnt movg through ne IL
will impact the terminals early this morning. Flight conditions
generally vfr but may go briefly to mvfr/ifr in ts due to vsby
restrictions. This activity will likely move e-se of the terminals
by daybreak as cdfnt moves across the area with drier airmass movg
in behind the front today providing vfr conditions with decreasing
cloudiness.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lewis
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...JT


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