Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 191133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
633 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Issued at 1255 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Cloudy skies and mild temperatures will persist for the next
several days. It will remain dry today, however low pressure will
approach later tonight with rain that will likely linger into
Friday. Highs today will be in the middle to upper 40s. It will be
even warmer this weekend with highs well into the 50s Saturday and
Sunday with a lingering chance of rain.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 314 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Moist near surface layer beneath a strong inversion has allowed low
stratus to linger over the area early this morning. There remains
some slight hope for a few breaks in this low cloud cover by early-
mid afternoon as low/mid level ridge axis lifts through...though
increasing mid-high clouds likely to offset regardless resulting in
a cloudy sky forecast for most of the day. Some thinning of low
stratus and warm advection should support a warmer day otherwise
with highs into the 40s for most locations, although confidence in
temps/sky lower than usual again for a near term forecast.

An upper low over the Central High Plains will shear/open northeast
sending a nw to se oriented frontal boundary through the local area
tonight into Friday morning. Excellent moisture feed from the
Equatorial Pacific and Gulf of Mexico should support a solid 8-10
hours of rain into the area by tonight-early Friday morning given
good moist isentropic upglide/fgen into the ne lifting frontal
slope. Models are in decent agreement in most locations receiving
0.40-0.80", highest south of US 30 in IN. This could create some
minor flooding on rivers/creeks/poor drainage areas.

Unseasonably mild/cloudy in wake of initial front then into Friday
afternoon with lingering areas of drizzle/light rain possible,
especially into Friday night with renewed surge of moisture as the
next system lifts from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Positive temp anomalies will become even more extreme into Saturday
and Saturday night as southwest flow deepens in advance of an
amplifying Western US upper trough. There may be a few showers
around during these periods given ample moisture return (sfc
dewpoints nearing 50F) and weak low level trough in the vicinity.

Better ensemble clustering on a more southerly track of low pressure
center through the TN Valley/Mid Atlantic later Sunday into early
next week may allow the lower Great Lakes to escape the heavy rains
and additional hydro concerns. Latest model consensus has really
backed off on PoPs as a result, though confidence low at this range
given initial cut-off nature. Otherwise, Sunday another spring-like
day with gradual cooling (still above normal) thereafter.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Difficulty in discerning back edge of stratus in vicinity of KSBN
though suspect any breaks to likely afford br formation and
stratus to resolidify. Similar excursions into LIFR as turbulent
mixing surface-2kft wind flow relaxes next few hours. By midday
scour of IFR ceilings expected in advance of substantial upstream
shortwave and deep moisture over Lower Mississippi Valley lifts
north-northeast towards Ohio Valley. Slight adjustments to
rainfall timing with continued confidence for LIFR conditions to
develop by end of forecast period amid high near surface
saturation within cool/backed easterly flow developing as rainfall




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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