Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 262031
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

ZCZC STLWRKJJW 261928
TTAA00 KSTL DDHHMM

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid-level ridge to the west
which is providing northwest flow aloft over the CWA. Surface high
pressure to the northeast will continue to lead to a drying trend
through Wednesay evening with surface temperatures peaking in the
low to mid 80s. The ridge will give way to a short-wave developing
on the crest of the ridge as it works its way to the east. This will
bring about the chance for mid to late week storms in the short-
term. A surface low is progged to develop over western Nebraska this
evening before undergoing further development as it approaches
eastern Nebraska through Thursday. Warm air advection will accompany
the approaching system, with weak isentropic ascent across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri setting up by early Thursday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected within this region, though will need
to overcome dry air near the surface for measurable precipitation
Thursday morning. The aforementioned wave will continue to develop
Thursday, while at the surface, a cold front will sweep through
western Missouri late Friday morning. The best chance for widespread
convection during the near-term forecast will occur along the
boundary through the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. At this
point, with limited moisture and instability, severe weather is not
anticipated along the boundary. The cold front will slowly push
through the CWA with measurable perception across the boundary
through Friday. Heavier precipitation amounts are likely within
northern Missouri, as the greatest forcing for storms will reside
primarily over Iowa. By late Friday and into Saturday morning,
cooler air behind the front will bring about a temporary cooling
period before mid-level ridging once again develops to the west.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

By the end of the week, into the weekend influence from the mid
level ridge will once again become rather dominant, which will yield
above normal temperatures for next week. Expect temperatures to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through at least mid week. Will
continue with a dry forecast, as there does not appear to be any
obvious lifting mechanism for rain chances. Mid level flow looks to
remain rather weak through mid to late next week, which should even
diminish any chances for ridge-rider type systems. All in all, it
looks rather warm and dry for next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the forecast period.
There will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms across far
eastern Kansas and into perhaps far western Missouri. Terminals look
to remain a bit east of the better rain chances, but will be close
enough to warrant some concern of VCTS.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Welsh
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton



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