Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 140522
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1122 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.Short Term...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)

It was a cool and cloudy day over western Missouri and northeast
Kansas. Temperatures struggled to warm into the lower 50s, while
light south breezes persisted.

Fast zonal flow aloft was gradually becoming anticyclonic. This
broad ridging pattern will keep temperatures mild over the next
several days. However, our next chances for widespread rainfall
will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the west. This feature will interact
with increasing moisture to produce showers and even a few
thunderstorms.

Despite a highly sheared airmass in place, instability levels are
expected to remain too low for any organized thunderstorms.
Therefore, no severe storms are expected at this time. Rain will
exit central Missouri by late morning Wednesday.

Wednesday night will be chilly, with readings in the low to mid
30s.

.Long Term...(Thursday through Monday)

Southerly flow will quickly return by Thursday, helping to warm
temperatures into the 50s. Highs in the 60s are expected Friday,
however, our next cold front will also shift through the region
Friday afternoon. This feature will trigger a few showers and
thunderstorms, however, many locations could miss out on rain and
stay dry.

This frontal system will bring cooler air with it, causing
temperatures to drop into the upper 20s and low 30s Saturday night
and again Sunday night. Highs on Sunday may only reach the middle
and upper 40s.

Overall, it looks to be a dry weekend once Friday evenings showers
exits to the east of the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST MON NOV 13 2017

IFR CIGs a little later than anticipated, but still should move in
during the overnight hours. Upstream observations indicate the
presence of IFR CIGs, so have bumped back the timing for those
ceilings for another couple hours. Off and on drizzle or light
rain will persist through around sunrise. Low clouds will stick
around through the rest of Tuesday, with perhaps a few isolated
pockets of drizzle or light rain.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...Cramer
Long Term...Cramer
Aviation...Leighton



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