Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 262143
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
343 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 343 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2016

Deepening low pressure over the High Plains is causing the surface
pressure gradient over the area to strengthen through the day. As a
result, winds have increased through the day, with sustained winds
around 15 mph and gusts approaching 25 at times. Clear skies will
give way to clouds through the overnight hours as the warm/moist air
advection kicks in. The low level jet overnight will be rather
impressive, with 850 winds expected to be in the 40 to 50 knot
range. Forecast soundings through the morning hours indicate little
mixing, so while there may be some gustiness to the overnight winds,
the boundary layer is generally expected to be decoupled through the
overnight hours. While the low level increases to 60-70 knots by
Sunday evening stable air above a very shallow mixed layer will
likely prevent these strong winds from reaching the surface. Expect
breezy/gusty conditions through the day on Sunday, but the
aforementioned shallow mixed layer induced by the widespread cloud
cover should mitigate any of the strong winds aloft from reaching
the surface. That being said, it will only require a minor increase
in mixing to translate those stronger winds to the surface, and/or
the light precipitation occurring through the day may aid in downward
momentum transfer of these stronger winds. Due to the strength of
the stable layer where the strong winds reside will not put out any
hazards for wind. As for precipitation, the atmospheric profile will
saturate from the bottom up with the moisture return. Initially
skies will just be cloudy, with perhaps some light rain or drizzle
by the early morning hours. As the column saturates rain will become
more widespread, but again should be rather light through most of
the day. Some very modest elevated instability builds into the area
as the trough ejects through, but only a minimal amount of elevated
CAPE will bring isolated rumbles of thunder. Given the very strong
wind field as well as the elevated nature of these showers expect
them to be rather progressive as they move through the area. Perhaps
there could be as much as a quarter inch of rain along and south of
the KC metro and I-70 corridor, but the higher amounts will likely
be near the IA/MO border, where a quarter to half inch of rain could
be. Rain showers should be able to hold on across central Missouri
through parts of Monday as the system depart, then thereafter dry
conditions will prevail for the remainder of the forecast period. A
fairly strong cold front (at least for 2016 standards) will move in
for the middle part of the week, which will effectively knock
temperatures back into the 20s/30s for lows and the 40s/50s for
highs through the rest of the week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2016

Gusty winds will pick up through the day on Saturday before gradually
diminishing after sunset. Through the overnight hours strong low
level winds around 40 kts at FL015 to FL020 AGL will bring some wind
shear concerns to the terminals. Should the boundary layer remain
mixy and gusty conditions persist at the terminals then LLWS will be
minimal, however should winds go light/calm at the surface LLWS will
be a more prevalent concern. Low clouds roll in around sunrise on
Sunday morning and conditions will gradually deteriorate through the
day. Light rain/drizzle could begin as early as 15z, and could
persist off-and-on through the remainder of the day. IFR conditions
are definitely possible, perhaps as early as 15z, but more likely
thereafter. Decided to mention low end MVFR CIGs as opposed to
committing to IFR this early. Will reassess IFR CIGs with upcoming
issuances.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton



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