Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 242053

253 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

Issued at 252 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Tonight/Sunday...Confidence remains for chances of light
precipitation to overspread portions of the forecast area tonight
through Sunday. As of early this afternoon, water vapor imagery
showed a shortwave trough over eastern Montana into the western
Dakotas. This upper disturbance will rapidly drop southeastward,
reaching our forecast area by sunrise Sunday, and remain the
catalyst for the uptick in active weather during the next 24 hours.
Initial precipitation may develop in advance of strong PVA over east
central Kansas, sliding into west central Missouri before expanding
in coverage to the east. An additional area may also be initially
focused closer to the surface low pressure in northeast Missouri.
The initial coverage of precipitation prior to 09-12Z may be
somewhat spotty, with all precipitation falling in the form of rain,
per forecast soundings showing a notable warm layer several kft
above the surface. As the upper disturbance moves through with the
remaining area of deep ascent, a broader area of light precipitation
is expected to move through the region beginning Sunday morning. The
best chances will be across the northeast half of the CWA, with
decreasing chances with southwest extent. Upon the cold frontal
passage, colder air will advect into the area. Forecast soundings
show a cold/saturated enough profile to support snow or a mix of
rain/snow over portions of northern and northeastern Missouri during
the day on Sunday. Where snow can occur, considering light/meager
snow rates, relatively warm ground temperatures, and 2m air
temperatures above freezing, little to no accumulation is expected,
with any dusting reserved for grassy, insulated-type surfaces. All
precipitation is expected to exit from west to east by sunset Sunday.

The cooler weather on Sunday will be short-lived as the upper
pattern remains highly amplified, with a large ridge over the
Intermountain West Monday into Tuesday. Warm H85 temperatures on the
order of 10-13C will overspread much of the Central Plains Monday
through Wednesday, yielding afternoon high temperatures well above
seasonal levels for the region. The warmest day for the forecast
area should occur on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front as the
upper pattern begins to break down, with highs in the middle 50s to
lower 60s. Otherwise, cooler weather is expected to through the
remainder of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1058 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Will see a gradual
lowering of ceiling heights in advance of an oncoming storm system.
This activity will mainly affect areas to the northeast of the
terminals with light rain showers toward the latter half of the
forecast period. KMCI and surrounding terminals may see a sprinkle or
two between 06Z-12Z, though not enough evidence present to include in
forecast for now. Otherwise, winds will turn to the NW with gusts up
to 25kts once the cold front pushes through the area.




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