Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 221147
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
647 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 416 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

Today - Saturday:

While the upper low which has dominated our weather for the past
several days has moved into IL we`ll still have to deal with some of
its` residual after effects in the form of cloud cover. The leading
edge of a swath of stratus has entered northwest MO with the cloud
cover extending north through MN. 00Z models didn`t handle this
very well but the 06z NAM run looks more reasonable and spreads the
low clouds across the northern third of the CWA this morning before
lifting and eventually scattering out by mid afternoon. This will
likely negatively impact temperatures over northern MO. Didn`t get
overly aggressive on knocking temperatures down as only a few hours
of sun should send temperatures back up close to model guidance.

Otherwise, the next couple of days will be dry, uneventful with a
noticeable warmup for Saturday. Upper ridging now over the Rockies
will translate east with the ridge axis passing through early
Saturday. Once on the west side of the axis we`ll see the benefit of
increasing warm air advection, resulting in temperatures about 10
degrees above average.

Late in the period increasing moist isentropic ascent accompanied by
a fast moving but weak shortwave trough will probably generate
scattered elevated convection over NE/northern KS which could graze
far northwest MO after midnight Saturday.

Sunday - Thursday:

As noted in the previous forecast discussion this will be a rather
unsettled period with several good chances for convection and much
needed rainfall. The first chance comes Sunday afternoon/evening as
another closed upper system lifts northeast out of the Central
Rockies. Scattered convection is probable along a pre-frontal
convergence zone/surface trough. While low-level moisture will be
increasing northward the resulting instability will be on the low-
end for a severe threat. But 0-6km shear around 50kts may be
sufficient to generate strong/marginally severe storms. Best chance
for convection will be across the northwest 1/3 of the CWA.

Will likely see a dry window Monday/Monday night as the first closed
upper low opens up and passes well north of the region. A second
larger upper low, similar to the one which brought rain to the
region early this week, will push into the Central High Plains
Tuesday night. The ECMWF and GFS are similar in swinging a
negatively tilted shortwave northeast and through the CWA Tuesday
night. Should the GFS with its noticeably more negative tilt end up
being correct we could see severe storms. However, it`s certainly
too early to jump aboard that train.

Temperatures should remain above average with highs well into the
70s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

IFR stratus has overspread much of northern MO and northeast KS with
MVFR ceilings further upstream over IA. This extensive area of low
clouds will spread further south through 14-15Z before stalling. Then
the rest of the morning will see ceilings gradually improve with the
southern edge mixing/scattering out. Far north central/northeast MO
could remain in MVFR ceilings into mid afternoon before clearing.
Otherwise, expect clear skies after sunset and light winds during the
entire forecast.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...MJ



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