Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 210845

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
245 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Issued at 244 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Rain, mixing at times with snow, will taper off across western MO
over the next few hours and across central MO through sunrise as a
cold front pushes into southern and eastern MO. Further north, most
precipitation is tapering off across north central MO with only trace
amounts of additional snow accumulation expected. Will therefore let
the winter weather advisory drop early.

Clouds will stick around through the morning then rapidly clear from
west to east as high pressure quickly builds in from the west.
Despite the afternoon sun, cold air advection through the day will
keep temperatures in the 30s, with parts of northern MO staying below
freezing for the entire day. This will make it the coldest highs
we`ve seen since the beginning of March.

Low-level ridge axis will pass to our east tonight allowing winds to
return from the south after midnight. This will keep temperatures
from bottoming out as low as they otherwise could have with lows generally
in the 20s. This flow pattern will allow temperatures to rise back
into the 40s on Sunday and into the 50s through the beginning of the
week. Broad upper ridging will maintain mostly sunny skies through

The next chance for rain will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday
ahead of a deep upper trough digging into the Rockies. A stream of
moisture ahead of this system could make for a rather soggy
Thanksgiving across much of the Plains and Midwest. As of now the
track of this system and placement of any cold air look to keep any
threat for wintry precipitation well to our north across the Dakotas
and Minnesota. Models are trending more progressive with this system,
tracking a fast-moving cold front through the area Thursday night and
scouring out most moisture before rain has much time to changeover to
freezing rain or snow. Will keep an eye to make sure these trends
hold and that no additional waves cause the front to stall or cause
any additional precipitation behind it.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1101 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

The anticipated IFR ceilings are knocking on a few of the terminal`s
doorsteps and should be only a matter of time before they arrive and
impact the sites. Wind shifts and a notable increase in wind speeds
has already been observed at STJ, MCI, and MKC with IXD to follow
suit. Local observers have reported snow and/or a rain/snow mix
across portions of northern MO and eastern KS so STJ and MCI still
appear to have the potential to have some snow mixing in before the
precipitation clears out. Can`t rule out a few flakes mixing in at
IXD and MCI as well. Ceilings will rise as dawn approaches with
clouds largely clearing out by midday Saturday. Winds will finally
subside around sunset Saturday.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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