Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 291733

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1133 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Issued at 300 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

Main item today will be the passage of a secondary cold front late
this morning and afternoon as primary surface low continues to spin
across the Northern Plains. Passage of this feature will mark the
beginnings of a decent cooling trend which will persist through much
of the forecast period. Highs today will range from the upper 40s up
towards the NE/IA borders...with upper 50s/low 60s expected across
southern sections of the forecast area. Beginning tomorrow
however...highs will struggle to make it out of the lower to mid 40s
with this trend continuing for the foreseeable future.

Speaking of the weekend...eyes will be drawn upstream across the
southern High Plains on Saturday as long awaited upper low begins to
move through southern Texas and northern Mexico. What happens
afterwords remains up in the air this morning as ECMWF and GFS
continue to disagree on the degree of phasing between an incoming
northern stream energy and the aforementioned upper closed low. If
the ECMWF solution were a perfect prog...precip would begin to work
back into the area Saturday night with a continuation through the day
on Sunday as main storm system tracks north through the Mississippi
Valley. It should be stated up front that if this scenario comes to eastward shifting storm track would provide our area
with just a glancing blow as main precip shield would remain east of
our area. Meanwhile the operational GFS continues to be the less
progressive model solution...holding off the bulk of precip until
the Monday/Monday night timeframe when the upper closed low finally
begins to phase with northern stream energy arriving from the
northwest. With this solution however...main push of precipitation
looks to be prefrontal...suggestion warm air in place ahead of the
storm system which would significantly reduce the likelihood of
wintry precipitation. So while they look somewhat interesting from a
causal view...overall prevailing through this morning is that either
solution should result in fairly small impacts across our region.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

Just a few high clouds are expected thru 08Z when cigs around 4kft
are expected to move into the terminals. Cigs lowering btn 2-3kft
is possible aft 15Z however, diurnal lifting may keep cigs VFR thru
the remainder of the TAF pd. Winds will be generally out of the WNW
btn 5-10kts today before backing to the west tonight while remaining
around 5-10kts.




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