Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS63 KEAX 122344
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 223 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2017

The remnants of IRMA over the southern Mississippi River Valley has
brought a mix of high clouds over the region and kept the winds out
of the NE.  These two elements have helped to keep our temperatures
well below normal with most high temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.  These widespread high clouds could make for a very nice
sunset tonight before they exit the area to the south overnight.
Upper level ridging will build into the region on the backside if
IRMA creating a beautiful day Wednesday.  Winds will return to a
southerly flow Thursday allowing some higher temperatures to mix
down with highs in the upper 80s Thursday and possibly 90 degrees
Friday.  The upper level ridging will keep precipitation to the west
and northwest through Friday but will start to weaken and move east
Saturday as shortwave enters the Rockies.

Leeside cyclogenesis will occur over the northern plains which will
eventually develop a cold frontal boundary down through Kansas
Saturday night.  The GFS has some very high based showers popping
off Saturday afternoon along a mid level convergent boundary, but the
majority of the precip will fall as virga and not reach the ground.
This shortwave will progress eastward bringing a cold front into
northern Missouri Saturday night into Sunday.  This will be the
areas best first chance for scattered showers and non-severe
thunderstorms north of the MO river.  The GFS has more of a
connection with the tropical moisture over the Pacific showing a
better chance of precipitation than the ECMWF so some uncertainly is
still in play with this feature.  This boundary will stall over the
region Monday creating the possibility of showers over northern
Missouri.  If that tropical moisture does make it into the region as
the GFS suggests the possibility of isolated flooding along that
boundary is possible with steering flow parallel to the boundary.
PWAT values are showing above 2" with a very moist adiabatic skew t
profile in place.  This boundary will lift back north as a warm
front Tuesday, but there is uncertainly on how significant the
rainfall will be as GFS has possible tropical storm remnants moving
through while ECMWF shows weak to no tropical connection.  This
uncertainty will keep only Chance PoPs in the forecast for this
period. The extended forecast will have to monitored closely as this
could be a decent rain event if GFS solution pans out.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2017

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at the terminals
throughout much of the TAF period. The exception to that is STJ
where light fog could develop in the pre-dawn hours. Look for UL
clouds to continue streaming overhead as Irma`s remnants brush
past, along with light, variable winds to dominate through
tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...lg



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.