Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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172
FXUS63 KEAX 162334
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
534 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 337 PM CST FRI FEB 16 2018

The short term will feature a warming trend through the weekend
with a chance of a rain/snow mix on Saturday morning. CAA has
brought cooler temperatures into the region today with temperatures
this afternoon running generally in the 30s. High pressure is
building into the region late this afternoon but will quickly
traverse the CWA shifting east of the area by midnight. This will
lead the low temperature tonight to occur around midnight as winds
will pick up out of the south after midnight. Expect lows in the mid
20s to lower 30s. Saturday morning two shortwaves are expected to
bring precipitation to the region. The first will be a shortwave
that will remain north of the area moving through the Upper Midwest,
the second is a upper shortwave which will move through the southern
plains tonight and into southern Missouri and Arkansas tomorrow
morning. This will introduce the chance for light rain/snow to areas
south of I-70 tomorrow morning. Little to no accumulation would be
expected with temperatures hovering right around freezing.
Conditions will clear tomorrow afternoon and will downsloping
westerly flow highs are expected to reach the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Sunday, strong WAA with southwest flow aloft will help temperatures
rise into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The best chance for precipitation will come in the Sunday night
through Monday. This will come courtesy of a upper level trough
digging through the northern and central Rockies. This will push a
cold front towards the area however, models suggest it will get hung
up across central Iowa/southeastern Nebraska/north central Kansas as
the upper level trough digs through the Rockies. WAA out ahead out
the cold front will produce showers for the region Sunday night. On
Monday, the upper trough begins to push east into the western plains
and the cold front is expected to push through the CWA. Temperatures
out ahead of the front are expected to be very mild with highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s (and in the mid 40s across NW Missouri
where the front will pass earlier in the day) this will actually
help provide enough instability to allow a few thunderstorms to
develop during the day. As CAA behind the front is usher in
temperatures will quickly drop and there may be a brief change over
to snow with little to no accumulation expected.

Model differences between the GFS and EC regarding how deep the
trough across the eastern Rockies/western Plains is affecting the
solution given by the forecast builder. The EC is much deeper with
the trough and thus slower to move it out into the western Plains
than the GFS which is more progressive. The EC solution would slow
the progression of the cold front through the area and would prolong
precipitation chances into Tuesday amd Tuesday night before exiting
the area on Wednesday morning. The GFS exits precipitation out of
the area by Tuesday morning. Considering the lack of precipitation
across the area this Winter and that the 12Z NAM has come into
agreement with the GFS have sided with hat solution. Consequently,
PoPs in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe are probably well
overdone. As a additional consequence of these model differences,
temperatures are mostly likely too cool.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST FRI FEB 16 2018

Increasing high clouds are expected this evening and overnight
with winds becoming southeasterly. Forecast becomes a little more
challenging Saturday morning as KC terminals expected to be on the
edge of saturation/MVFR cigs and light precipitation chances.
Latest model guidance has given a short window of rain and low
clouds during the mid-morning as far north as KCI, before clouds
rapidly clear to mostly sunny skies by early afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Blair



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