Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 041736

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1136 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Issued at 338 AM CST MON DEC 4 2017

Stratus will expand across the region early this morning as
isentropic lift and low-level moisture increases, and could also
be accompanied by patchy drizzle or very light rain toward
sunrise. Gusty south southwest winds will continue through the
morning in advance of a well advertised southeastward-moving cold
front currently in central NE/KS, advecting in and mixing down
increasing daytime temperatures despite thick daytime cloud cover.
Have raised highs into the upper 60s to lower 70s CWA-wide given
the starting point in the lower to mid 60s. Winds do not look
quite strong enough for an advisory, but sustained speeds could
brush 30 mph on-and-off both ahead of the front this morning and
behind it this afternoon.

The front will push through the region this afternoon, and will be
chased by a faster-moving shortwave trough that should catch up to
the surface front by late afternoon or early evening. Once the
forcing from the front and the upper wave become juxtaposed, the
light warm-sector and frontal precipitation will become enhanced
and lapse rates will steepen, allowing more robust showers and a
few scattered storms to develop along the cold front. This will
likely happen out of our CWA, but have still kept thunder in the
southeastern half of the forecast area where this transition will
initially occur. Precipitation chances will abruptly end behind
the front as much drier low-level air surges in, dropping dew
points from the mid to upper 50s into the teens by late evening.
This very quick drop in RH combined with gusty west northwest
winds behind the front could result in a several-hour period of
increased wildfire danger, especially in areas with more residence
time behind the front this afternoon and that do not notably
accumulate precipitation today (eastern KS and northwest into far
western MO).

Windy conditions will continue through tonight and increase again
Tuesday after sunrise. Soundings are quite impressive for both
gusty winds and dry conditions Tuesday afternoon, mixing to
nearly 750 hPa and resulting in an inverted-V boundary layer
profile with surface Tds in the single digits to lower teens. Both
wind advisory criteria and red flag criteria seem probable, but
will continue evaluate and highlight with an SPS for now.

Chilly conditions are still expected Thursday through Saturday as
a secondary surge of cold air heads into the central and eastern
Plains. Have lowered highs closer to CONSAll values versus the
superblend, keeping highs in the lower to mid 30s each afternoon.
A few flurries are possible across central or northeastern MO as a
few weak waves clip our area in northwest flow aloft, but no
accumulating precip is expected in the overall dry pattern.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON DEC 4 2017

MVFR conditions to continue for the next hour or so with rapid
clearing expected by 21z following the passage of a cold front.
Strong winds with gusts to 35 kts will continue this afternoon
with a gradual directional change to the northwest expected later
today. Gusty winds to continue through the overnight and much of
the day tomorrow as a dry airmass advances over the region.




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