Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 190155
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

Another quiet night weather-wise as high pressure off to our east
will continue to dominate our weather thru the weekend with a day
to day warming trend. In addition, surface dew points will gradaully
increase as well, especially when the surface flow becomes more
southerly on Sunday. Forecast soundings off the RAP model and the
last several runs of the HRRR model suggest the potential for some
fog to form just before dawn Saturday, especially across the east
and southeast. However, it still doesn`t appear to be widespread
enough at this time to warrant including in the zone forecast this
evening. As a result, our current ZFP is handling the evening
trends well, so an update is not warranted at this time.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 610 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

Except for the possibility for a period of MVFR vsbys in ground
fog between 09z-13z, VFR conditions are expected for the rest of
the forecast. High pressure continues to dominate the weather over
our area and should be with us right thru Saturday night. Any
diurnal cumulus should gradually dissipate this evening with a
mostly clear sky expected overnight. Cumulus clouds should form
again late tomorrow morning with cloud bases in the 4500-6000 foot
range. Surface winds will once again be a non-factor this forecast
period with light easterly winds tonight, less than 5 kts, and an
east to southeast flow on Saturday at 5 to 10 kts.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

SHORT TERM...

A shortwave trough is currently tracking ENE along the Ohio River
Valley away from Illinois with mid and high cloud cover
decreasing. Another day of scattered low level cumulus cloud
cover has developed as a result of a capped shallow convective
layer from around 6000-9000 feet and this will dissipate overnight
with the loss of surface heating. Dewpoints this afternoon are a
bit below forecast minimum temperatures overnight and look too
marginal for mention of fog in public forecasts...although some
shallow localized fog isn`t completely out of the question. For
Saturday...a very similar day is expected except a few degrees of
increase in both temperature and dewpoint are in store as the cool
air mass of the past several days moves off to the northeast.

LONG TERM...

A high pressure ridge will build over the Rockies and Western
Plains through early next week. This will yield a stable
atmospheric profile over central Illinois for dry
conditions...and an increasing trend in temperatures and
dewpoints. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to around 90
degrees while dewpoints reach the lower 70s. By Late Tuesday or
Wednesday...models continue to bring a shortwave over the top of
the ridge to the west. This will likely bring a cold front through
the region for chances of precipitation back to Illinois. A
cooling trend with less humidity will likely accompany this
pattern as well Wednesday through Friday.

Onton

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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