Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 221102
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
602 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Both 00z model suites and more recent CAMs show a speed up
of the precipitation ending across the forecast area. This seems
reasonable given the progression of the energy moving across
western Missouri this morning. As it interacts with the digging
trough and help to intensify it. Will be ending the precip from
northwest to southeast.

Due to training nature of some of the storms tonight, soil
moisture should be high in some areas. Will have to watch for the
potential for fog tonight. Will leave it out for now and let day
shift analyze precip reports and wind forecasts to determine if
mention is warrented.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Cool northwest flow will persist at least through the first part
of the weekend. Several waves will rotate through the trough
during the period, but with limited moisture available the biggest
impacts may be a brief increase in clouds and a reinforcement of
the cool air in place. Temps should be 5-10 degrees below normal.

There are several differences in the way the models are handling
the tropical moisture associated with the remants of Harvey and
its interaction with the longwave trough over the eastern U.S. For
now will keep rain chances low Monday given the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Widespread pcpn across terminals this morning is producing
occasional IFR restrictions in CIGs and VSBYs. Conditions should
improve this morning as rain ends from northwest to southeast
across terminals. By 17z any lingering precipitation should have
moved out of KCMI and KDEC. A cold front will move across the area
today switching variable winds to a more consistent 280-320
degrees.

Will have to watch tonight for the potential of BR given the areas
of heavy rain this morning and diminishing winds. Will introduce
some reduction in VSBYs but since there is uncertainty and would
be within the outlook period will keep them in the MVFR range for
now.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Barker


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