Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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559
FXUS63 KILX 230449
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1049 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Getting some reports of some light snow with even a report of
sleet with the small area of precip showing up on radar near
Champaign. Sounding is bone dry but some of the precip is
getting to the ground occasionally. Not looking for much in
the way of any accumulation with mainly trace amounts over
east central IL. Have updated the weather in the grids and
should have an updated ZFP out soon.

UPDATE Issued at 835 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The area of high pressure that brought the chilly temperatures to
the area today was shifting off to our east early this evening.
Coldest temperatures early this evening where located over far
east central and southeast Illinois, closer to the surface high.
Further west and north, mid and high level clouds were on the
increase ahead of the next fast moving weather system across
the Northern Plains. The combination of the cloud cover and
southerly winds overnight should help to keep our overnight
lows from reaching the lows we saw over the area this morning.

As the system to our north tracks across the upper Great Lakes
tomorrow, winds will increase out of the south which should
help push afternoon temperatures into the mid 40s to around
50 degrees with a good deal of sunshine, especially by afternoon.
The current forecast has the evening and overnight trends well in
hand, as a result, no update will be needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Holiday travel will not be impacted by the weather in central and
eastern IL as our benign pattern continues. High pressure will be
departing the area this evening, followed by a weak short wave
trough approaching from the northern Plains. The short wave will
be rather rather moisture starved in the low levels, so only an
area of mid/high level clouds will move across tonight. Most of
the clouds should clear central IL Thursday morning, and eastern
IL by late morning. Increasing southwest winds will allow
temperatures on Thanksgiving day to climb into the 45 to 50 range.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The upper level northwest flow will continue into early next week
across the Midwest. A stronger shortwave trough is expected to
move through the upper Midwest late Friday into Saturday, but this
one also will have very little moisture to work with. Most of the
models are indicating the best lift will be north and northeast of
our forecast area, so the slight chance PoPs for Champaign-
Danville have been removed for Friday night.

The main impact of the approaching shortwave will be a breezy
southwest flow so the wind for Friday was bumped up. There should
be plenty of low level mixing and warm advection so temperatures
were also increased above guidance in some areas on Friday. Highs
are expected to range from the lower 60s in west central IL to the
mid/upper 50s along the IN border.

Cooler temperatures are anticipated through the weekend after the
shortwave passes and the NW flow gets re-established. A backing
upper level flow early next week will signal increasing
temperatures again, well through the 50s. The European and GFS
models are also exhibiting some major differences in the upper
level pattern and associated sensible weather by Tue/Wed. The
European is really digging an upper level trough into the
southwestern U.S., while the GFS is more progressive with the
energy. For now will side with the more consistent GFS. Thus, will
only carry some slight chance and low chance PoPs for showers in
southeast IL late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions will continue through this forecast period. A
band of mid level clouds, in the range of 8000-12000 ft AGL,
were drifting southeast across the area this evening and that
should continue into the overnight hours. The clouds will decrease
from northwest to southeast Thursday morning with a light southerly
flow tonight (less than 10 kts) increasing from a south to
southwest direction on Thursday at 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Smith



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