Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 220830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The ridge axis associated with a large surface high currently cuts
across the forecast area from the southwest to the northeast. As the
ridge axis slips further to the southeast during the period,
southerly return flow will cause temperatures to warm. Today`s
expected highs in the 60s, and tonight`s expected lows in the 40s,
are closer to normal than they have been the past couple of days.
Otherwise, a dry airmass is expected to be in place through the
period. This will keep our quiet weather going with minimal cloud


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Pleasant fall weather will continue Sunday across central and
southeast IL with even milder temperatures as surface high pressure
settles over the southeast states. Sunny skies and breezy southwest
winds gusting 20-25 mph should push highs into the 70-75F range on
Sunday afternoon, with warmest readings from Springfield sw. 850 mb
temps elevate to 12-14C on Sunday and supports these milder readings.

1009 mb surface low pressure to track across the upper MS river
valley Sunday morning, into the southern great lakes on Sunday night.
This will push a cold front southeast across central IL Sunday
evening and existing southeast IL overnight Sunday night. This front
has very limited moisture to work with and should come through dry
which models have been consistent on. Lows Sunday night in the mid
to upper 40s, with Galesburg reaching the lower 40s. A fair amount
of sunshine expected Monday as 1030 mb high pressure settles into
the Midwest behind the cold front, with more seasonable highs in the
low 60s central IL and mid 60s southeast IL with NNE winds 5-10 mph.
High pressure ridge passes east of IL into IN by Monday evening with
fair skies and a seasonably cool night in the low to mid 40s
(coolest readings near IN border). Another dry day expected Tue with
highs again in the low to mid 60s, with clouds increasing over
northern CWA ahead of next approaching wx system.

IL is in a nw upper level flow early next week, and transitions to a
semi-zonal and progressive upper level flow by middle of next
week. This to bring mid level short wave and associated surface
low pressure east into western IA by 12Z Wed and into
central/northern IL Wed night. Have 20-40% chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving into areas from the IL river nw
overnight Tue night. Showers then likely spreading eastward across
the rest of central and southeast IL during Wed and Wed evening
with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs Wed range from lower 60s
northern CWA to upper 60s in southeast IL with Lawrenceville near
70F where showers arrive later in the day. Showers to diminish
from west to east after midnight Wed night with just slight
chances of showers near the IN border Thu morning. Clouds to
decrease from west to east during the day Thu. Cooler highs in the
lower 60s Thu with some upper 50s northern CWA.

Extended models differ with wx pattern later next week and stayed
close to consensus with dry conditions Thu night and Friday and
highs in the 60s. Upper level heights to stay above normal late
next week, keeping colder Canadian air locked north of our area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

High pressure will keep VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. The
only clouds of note appear to be a band of mid-level clouds
that look to affect our area through around 09z. Little to no
cloud cover is projected for tomorrow.

The surface high pressure axis will pass across IL the rest of
tonight, and reach near the Indiana border by 12z/7am. That will
set the stage for wind directions to change from light and
variable overnight to SW tomorrow morning. Wind speeds will
gradually increase in speed from the southwest after sunrise.
Sustained winds could climb to 10-12kt for the afternoon on
Saturday, as the surface pressure gradient tightens in the wake of
the ridge axis. Winds speeds will weaken with sunset tomorrow.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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