Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 160301

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
901 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Issued at 901 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Lots of clear skies across the CWA currently and this will likely
continue into the overnight hours. But models continue to show
another short wave trough rotating around the upper level low in
the Great Lakes, into the area late tonight and through tomorrow.
Light snow/flurries will be possible with this next trough. Making
lots of changes to cloud cover to account for the current clear
skies and then will adjust some of the timing of the flurries as
well. Update will be coming shortly.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

A bitterly cold airmass has invaded central Illinois in the wake
of the clipper system that passed earlier today. 20z/3pm
temperatures have dropped into the single digits and teens across
the entire area...with wind-chills ranging from zero to 10 below
zero. While skies have partially cleared across all but the far SE
KILX CWA, additional clouds associated with a sharp trough over
the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest will pivot southward tonight. The
end result will be mostly cloudy skies with a few flurries from
time to time. The clouds will keep temps from dropping as low as
they otherwise would, with guidance suggesting lows around zero.
With brisk northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph expected to last all
night, wind-chill values will bottom out from 10 below to 20 below
zero. As a result, the Wind Chill Advisory will remain in effect
for all of central and southeast Illinois tonight through Tuesday
morning. Clouds and flurries will hang around through the entire
day Tuesday, with afternoon highs only in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Its smooth sailing in the extended. After one more cold day on
Wednesday with high temperatures in the lower 20s, a marked
warming trend will get underway for the end of the week.
Temperatures will climb into the 30s on Thursday...then will soar
into the 50s by Saturday and Sunday. As has been advertised for
the past few days, the next storm system of note will not impact
the region until late in the weekend...resulting in rain chances
arriving by Saturday night and Sunday. In fact, if the GFS low
track across central Illinois verifies, would not be surprised to
see some isolated thunder introduced to the forecast Sunday/Sunday


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Clouds across the area are scattered to broken and with continued
cyclonic flow remaining over central IL, believe scattered to
broken conditions will continue this evening. SPI and BMI are
scattered with PIA/DEC/CMI broken, but satellite loops seems to
indicate that skies should be scattered this evening; however,
will keep tempo group for most sites for 2-3 hrs of broken cigs.
Cloud heights will be MVFR when broken this evening. Some flurries
could be possible this evening but will keep out for now, except
for CMI. Scattered clouds should continue overnight. Then a sfc
trough will rotate into the area from the north and bring lower
MVFR clouds around 1.5kft and light snow to PIA and BMI around
12z and then SPI/DEC/CMI around 15z. Believe these conditions will
continue until afternoon. Winds will be westerly through the
period with speeds of 10-15kts.


Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for ILZ027>031-



LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.