Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 300833
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKE MICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SFC PATTERN WILL PREVENT AN INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA...SO ANY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE FROM WHAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE OR FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM THE FAST GROWING CORN/BEAN FIELDS. EVEN
THOUGH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AS WELL...STILL THINK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL WEST WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ACTUALLY THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES IN THIS ROUND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR A COUPLE OF DRY PERIODS THIS WEEK...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.  IN THE SHORTER TERM, TONIGHT WILL SEE THE
DWINDLING OF ANY ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND DOWN ALONG THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY.  MODELS SLOW THE WAVE AND
CONTINUE ITS IMPACT INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. PRECIP ALMOST SKIRTING THE
BUILDING SFC RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE POPS CLOSE.
HOWEVER, THU-SAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR A BIT WITH THE
POPS AND PUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL IN A DRY SPOT WITH THAT SFC
RIDGE BUILDING.  GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH TRENDING DRIER...EVEN
PUSHING THE FRI SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF
NOT QUITE AS DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY OUT THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS
THE SUPERBLEND IS STILL WORKING OUT ITS PREV GUESS AND DEALING WITH
THE WETTER ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS TIME, ANOTHER WAVE IS
SHOWING UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND POPS RETURNING SAT
NIGHT/SUN.  WITH A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS SHIFT AS WELL. BUT FOR NOW...STARTING THE DRIER TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS KCMI-KPIA NORTHWARD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. INITIAL BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS BY CENTRAL IL TERMINALS BY 11-14Z SO
HAVE INCORPORATED A BREAK IN VCTS AT THAT POINT...BUT SHOULD
RETURN WITH AFTERNOON HEATING SO HAVE BROUGHT VCTS BACK INTO TAFS
17-18Z. EXPECTING LOW VFR CEILINGS WITH MOST
SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARD TO
STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...SO NOT
MENTIONED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS SW-NW 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...VEERING SLIGHTLY NW AND INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS AFTER
17Z. WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER NORTHERLY AROUND 00Z AND WEAKEN TO
5-8 KTS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON



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