Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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304
FXUS63 KILX 110944
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
344 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Surface high pressure will drift over central IL today as a
fast moving  clipper system currently over the international border
in MT approaches. Deep long wave trough over the eastern U.S. will
continue today...promoting strong northwest flow which will rapidly
move the MT system toward central IL. Through late afternoon...main
impact of the system will be increasing high and mid clouds but dry
conditions after mostly sunny skies to start the day. The surface
high pressure will bring weak pressure gradients causing north winds
to become progressively lighter through the day...in fact light and
variable underneath the high center by late afternoon as it becomes
centered roughly over Springfield. Cold temperatures to remain
entrenched over the area with highs mainly low 20s but ranging up to
the mid 20s from around Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A major change in the shorter term on track for tonight. Trouble
expected with the timing of the shortwaves moving through the nwrly
flow has materialized. Models have sped up the approach of the quick
clipper-like system out of the NW and into the long wave trof over
the eastern half of the country. Starting the snow in the west
before midnight, spreading across Central Illinois before sunrise
tomorrow morning. Snowfall totals could range from a half an inch to
an inch. Higher snowfall totals slated to be in the southern half of
the state...but this is a quick moving system and not expecting much
overall either way.  Concern will be for the morning commute,
particularly east of the I-57 corridor, where the snow may still be
falling. Other than that, forecast only some minor changes.  Deep
trof over the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate
the weather through the end of the week, keeping the colder air over
the region.

Lighter winds today will become more northwesterly towards the end
of the day, bringing colder air into the region.  Whereas Friday
highs may reach into the upper 20s, this cold air will knock
Saturdays highs back down into the teens. Winds pick up a southerly
component for Sunday as the upper trof finally starts to shift
eastward as another storm system takes shape moving into the
Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the extent of the
snow, but with a diffuse area of lift moving into the region, the
snowfall totals are starting to take shape for potentially 2-3
inches across Central Illinois.  Majority of the snow will be in the
Sunday/Sunday night time frame, slowly wrapping up for the morning
commute on Monday. With this being a major pattern shift over the
country...expect changes to the details with this system.  So far,
the forecast is warming on the back side of the snow...so what snow
does fall, will likely be melting rather quickly into the first half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail most of the period with mid and high
clouds still prevailing into the early evening hours tomorrow.
Then a clipper system will move quickly toward the area and bring
lower cigs and some light snow, beginning at 03z at PIA, 04z at
SPI, and 05z at BMI and DEC. Will have cigs still at VFR levels
around 3.5kft but vis will drop to 5sm at PIA and SPI, and 6sm at
BMI and DEC. Snow will likely hold off til around or after 06z at
CMI. Winds will be light and variable overnight then become
northerly during the early morning til late afternoon. Then light
and variable again during the evening hours.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten



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