Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 141945
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
245 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

A period of wet snow across the east this evening, followed by a
hard freeze over a good portion of the area tonight, and across our
east Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Large and slow moving 500 mb trof axis across the Missouri Valley
early this afternoon should gradually work its way across our area
this evening producing a period of light snow and rain. As darkness
sets in this evening, our chances for seeing some minor accumulations
increases, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area where
the precip will linger a bit longer. Still not looking for much more
than a half inch to one inch of slushy snow, mainly on grassy areas
with the precipitation shutting down as the 500 mb trof axis shifts
to our east just after midnight. Models are insistent of scouring
out the low level moisture late tonight with clearing from west to
east late this evening with our far southeast the last to clear around
dawn. 850 temperatures forecast to drop to around -10c later this
evening and based on the upstream morning low temperatures west of
the Missouri River, will continue to advertise mid 20s north to the
lower 30s southeast by dawn Tuesday. Lightest winds will be out west
and southwest late tonight and will be the area where skies will
clear out earlier than in the far southeast. The recent warm temps
over the past several days has resulted in quick green up and
rapid flowering of many trees, especially in areas along and south
of a Rushville to Springfield to Marshall line. Will issue a Freeze
Warning for the above area tonight, except for Clark, Crawford
and Lawrence counties as it appears they will have the cloud cover
for the longest period of time overnight with clearing not expected
over the far southeast counties until just after sunrise.

After the cold start to the morning on Tuesday, high pressure will
drift across the area bringing quiet but chilly conditions during the
afternoon. Forecast soundings showing the potential for some cumulus
development during the late morning hours but most of the soundings
showing the moisture depth decreasing in the afternoon. Freezing temps
likely again on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, especially east of
Interstate 55 which will be closest to the ridge axis. Further west,
the return flow is already setting up late in the evening so we expect
a quick fall in temps during the evening and then temps to remain
steady overnight. South winds to increase on Thursday ahead of the
next weather system taking shape out over Iowa which should result
in much warmer air advecting north into the region with most locations
warming into the 60s. Rain chances start to increase ahead of the
upper wave Thursday night with overnight lows quite a bit warmer than
the previous nights lows due to the cloud cover and a light southeast
flow.

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Rain chances the main forecast concern Friday and again Easter Sunday
as models have come around to a more consistent solution on both systems.
Upper pattern initially deamplifies allowing more of a zonal flow across
the lower 48 early in the period before both the GFS and ECMWF suggest
the upper wave on Sunday will dig more into the lower Great Lakes
increasing the chances for showers starting Saturday night over the
northwest. Models depict a weak surface reflection, more of an inverted
trof, shifting slowly across the area with the deeper moisture and better
instability remaining to our south, similar to the wave moving across
the area on Friday. Temperatures this period are expected to average
out below normal, although not nearly as cold as what will occur over
our area early this week.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Expect scattered light rain showers to redevelop across the
central IL airports this afternoon. The light rain will mix with
and change to light snow during the afternoon and early evening with
MVFR vsbys possible at times. MVFR ceilings will also continue
across the central IL airports through this evening and then
scatter out from west to east between 05Z-09Z starting at western
taf sites of PIA and SPI and last at eastern taf site of CMI.
Blustery NNW winds 14-18 kts with gusts 20-28 kts this afternoon
will diminish to 10-15 kts after sunset and be NW 7-13 kts later
tonight and Tue morning. Strong cold front over central IN into
far nw KY has passed se of IL by midday. Strong upper level trof
and embedded northern stream short wave over the upper Midwest
will settle into IL this evening, then shift east of IL by dawn
Tue as surface high pressure ridge shifts into the eastern plains
Tue morning. Nearby upper level trof could still produce at least
scattered cumulus clouds around 3k ft Tue morning especially in
eastern IL and broken cu/stratocu ceilings by midday Tue may be
near or just east of CMI.

07
&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Here are some record low temperatures for Peoria, Springfield and
Lincoln for tonight and Tuesday night (April 15th and 16th)...

Peoria for tonight:        23 degrees set back in 1928
Peoria for Tuesday night:  24 degrees set back in 1962

Springfield tonight:       25 degrees set back in 1928
Springfiled Tue night:     26 degrees set back in 1962

Lincoln for tonight:       21 degrees set back in 1928
Lincolh for Tue night:     25 degrees set back in 1962

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ040-047-
049>052-054-056-061-062-066-067-071-072.

&&

$$




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