Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 271724
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1224 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY. WITH DAYTIME
WARMING AND AMPLE SUNSHINE...ANY RESIDUAL PATCHY FOG HAS BURNED
OFF.  UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RATHER COOL
TEMPERATURES. IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH THE LARGE FAIR
WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING WITH THE MERCURY ALREADY DOWN TO 48
DEGREES HERE AT THE OFFICE IN LINCOLN WITH A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 50 DEGREES. TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS DECREASING AS WELL
SO SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANY
FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RAPIDLY THRU THE
MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING
AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AS
MUCH CLOUDINESS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
MORE UNIFORM OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S FAR EAST TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.  WAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS SLIDING THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE DOING BETTER
WITH THE TIMING OF THE WAVE, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BETTER
PRECIP COVERAGE IS STILL BEING CALLED INTO QUESTION. A DRY AIRMASS
OVERALL ON ILX SOUNDINGS IS PART OF THE PROBLEM.  ALTHOUGH THE SFC
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS LIMITED BY LIGHTER WINDS TO THE SOUTH.  THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING THE WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH IN THE LATEST RUNS AS
WELL.  STILL CONCERNED THAT THE PRECIP WILL STILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT THAN WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WEAKER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  GFS AND NAM STARTING TO TREND THAT
WAY, LINGERING THE PRECIP INTO SAT NIGHT AND IN THE EAST FOR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

WAVE MOVING THROUGH EFFECTIVELY SHIFTS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PAC COAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...AND RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY AFTER THE WEEKEND. HOT TEMPS UNDER THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DIFFUSE INTO THE REGION WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT
AND TEMPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMALS WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING THE 90 MARK BEFORE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES TO NORTHEAST IOWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. EAST/
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT THEN
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
TO 10KTS OR HIGHER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 10-15KTS ALONG
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SCT/BKN CU IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT AS IT SCATTERS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT/SHALLOW GROUND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW
WIDESPREAD IT MAY BECOME IS LOW SO NO MENTION WITH THIS FORECAST.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KREIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...CMS



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