Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 261729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Issued at 1044 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Current forecast looks on track but need to make some adjustments
to pop/wx coverage area as radar shows light showers/rain moving
into the area from the west-northwest. Wind/temp/etc looks fine
the rest of the day.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017
Northwesterly flow aloft continues with high pressure building
into the center of the country. Mild airmass in place again today
with a mostly broken cu field expected in the afternoon with a
cyclonic turn to the flow aloft and mid level moisture still in
place from yesterday. Models show a bit of scattered coverage of
showers with a quick shortwave moving through the region, visible
this morning on wv sat imagery, further assisting an afternoon
diurnal component. HRRR making the showers look rather isolated.
CAPEs are generally limited to under 1000 J/kg, but enough lift
through the column on a larger scale to warrant some iso/sct
thunder this afternoon. Partly sunny and mild temperatures again
today. West/northwesterly winds, less gusty today. Clouds diminish
later this evening and temps drop again into the 50s. With a lack
of pressure gradient the winds will be light once again and will
have to watch this afternoons xover temp for the potential of some
very patchy fog development.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Tuesdays highs climb back into the upper 70s as a start of a
warming period as the wave aloft passes through the Great Lakes.
The trough aloft over the eastern half of the country deepens
briefly before moving off to the east. A more zonal regime settles
into the region and southwesterly flow in the midlevels sets up a
strong warm air advection period...opening up the region to the
deep warm air over the desert SW. 850 mb temps warm from 7-8C on 17-20C by Wednesday evening. Temperatures at the
surface climb a good 7 to 9F on Wednesday and stay warm through
the end of the week. Temperatures would likely look a little
warmer on Thur/Friday if not for the potential for
convection/showers/thunderstorms limiting warming potential in the
grids. Have made adjustments to Thursday slightly...but unwilling
to go too far with the changes just yet. The zonal flow aloft has
several waves past the end of the week, resulting in period
chances for precip through the latter half of the week and into


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A weak front will slide south through the area this afternoon.
Cloud cover will limit heating and instability along and ahead of
the front so will just have VCSH at all TAF sites for this
afternoon and into early this evening at SPI/DEC/CMI. Cloud cover
will remain mostly mid clouds around 8-10kft but some lower
scattered clouds are possible with a passing shower. Once the
front moves through late this afternoon to early this evening,
clouds will quickly scatter out and high cirrus will be left.
Winds will westerly with gusts to around 20kts this afternoon then
become light and variable remainder of the forecast period behind
the front as high pressure builds into the area.




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