Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 280820
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
320 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

As the low pressure area that brought rain to the CWA yesterday
moves off to the east, a brief period of dry weather is expected as
a high pressure ridge slides across the area today through tonight.
Winds will remain north to northeasterly through tonight, which
should keep cloud cover over the area the whole time. This cloud
cover and northerly-northeasterly winds will keep temps down as
well. Expecting highs mainly in the 50s, with lower 60s in the
southeast. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

An active weather pattern is expected to persist across central and
southeast Illinois over the next several days. While not every day
will see rain in the area, there will be a frequent risk. Expect
mostly cloudy conditions to persist as well, along with the
precipitation risk. Temperatures through the period will average a
little warmer than normal, with the warmest readings expected ahead
of each system to impact the area.

Quiet conditions will persist into early Wednesday as upper/surface
ridging slowly drift east of the area. Then, increasing
WAA/isentropic ascent ahead of a slow moving upper low/trof
(currently pushing into the Four Corners region) will return the
threat of showers to the area. However, most of the heavier/more
widespread rainfall should hold off until late Wednesday night into
Thursday evening as the system moves through the area. Instability
increases as the system draws closer, peaking around 1000 j/kg over
the southeast 1/2 of the forecast area Thursday afternoon, and
supports at least scattered thunderstorm development. Rainfall
chances should be tapering off on Friday as the system moves east of
the area. While model guidance is pretty good that the main upper
wave will pass through the area Thursday into early Friday, there is
still spread with the exact track of the system, individual short
waves moving through the mean trof, and how quickly the system
departs. Expect current forecast to need additional adjustments as
model consensus hopefully builds around the details.

Quiet weather returns for Friday night into Saturday night, but it
will not last for long as another system should be in our vicinity
for Sunday into Tuesday. However, model agreement during this period
is quite poor with the specifics, resulting in low forecast
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

MVFR and local IFR cigs are expected across our area for
the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. Still seeing some
breaks in the overcast with cigs up in the VFR category. However,
satellite data indicates widespread MVFR and IFR cigs to our west
and northwest as the storm system to our southeast continues to
move away from the region. Forecast soundings suggest we may start
to see cigs improve tomorrow afternoon and satellite data does
indicate some clearing taking place to our north late this evening
which may get into our area later tomorrow. North to northeast
winds will continue tonight at 5 to 10 kts, with mostly northeast
winds at 8 to 13 kts on Tuesday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith



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