000
FXUS63 KILX 061737
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1137 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

High pressure centered on a SW to NE axis just to the southeast of
Illinois will remain nearly stationary today. A low pressure
system moving across southern Canada will drag a warm front across
Iowa/MN today. We will see gusty southerly winds in Illinois as a
result of that approaching warm front and a tight pressure
gradient between the high pressure and the frontal zone. Any cloud
cover will be minor today, with mostly sunny skies prevailing.
There should be enough insolation today to overcome the very cold
start, pushing highs into the mid 30s in the west and upper 20s in
the east. Only minor updates were needed to sky and temp grids to
match expected trends. Updated grids are available. No formal zone
update will be needed this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Despite a very chilly start to the day (with much of forecast area
near or below zero), temperatures are expected to warm nicely today
across central and southeast Illinois. A ridge of high pressure will
pull away from the area today. The surface pressure gradient will
become much stronger as the ridge departs, allowing gusty southerly
winds to develop. These southerly winds will begin to transport much
warmer temperatures into the area, a welcome trend that will persist
for at least the next several days. Weak upper level disturbances
will produce some mid-high level cloudiness as they move through the
region today, but the local air mass is too dry to support any
precipitation with these disturbances locally.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Not much change in this part of the forecast, with the warming trend
the dominant theme. Temperatures may be held down initially across
the southwest/southeast parts of the forecast area where the snow
cover is a bit deeper, but 40s should still be widespread much of
the weekend, and 50s follow for Tuesday-Thursday. Longer range
models are in general agreement with the upper pattern into the
middle of next week, with a broad SW-NE trough across the Plains
into the Great Lakes. Any fast-moving waves would be more along the
northern tier of states, and would largely bypass us.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 18Z TAF valid time, under high
pressure. A tighter pressure gradient between high pressure SE of
IL and a warm front NW of IL will produce gusty south winds the
rest of today, with gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon into early
evening. Winds will diminish tonight to at or below 10kt, then
increase again toward 15kt tomorrow morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon