Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 121802
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
102 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

High pressure will keep the weather quiet today for the Midwest.
Northerly winds generally less than 10kts for the morning and
temperatures already into the lower 70s. Expect some cu later this
morning in the southeast and the north and temperatures climbing
into the upper 70s/lower 80s. No major updates anticipated at this
time...just some minor adjustments to the hourly grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Quiet weather on tap in the short term, as high pressure settles
across the Midwest through tonight. Some diurnal cumulus should
develop across mainly the eastern CWA, associated with the
shortwave currently pushing across Wisconsin/northeast Iowa, but
skies will still be mostly sunny. Temperatures will be fairly
uniform across the area, mainly reaching around 80 degrees today
and falling to the mid 50s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

The area of high pressure will slowly edge eastward early in the
week, preventing any meaningful moisture return into our area.
Thus, although a shortwave will be passing on Monday, dry
conditions will continue, although temperatures will start edging
upward.

The mid/late week precipitation trends remain the primary issue. The
latest ECMWF is a bit more amplified and faster with a shortwave
moving out of the Plains on Wednesday, with the associated rain
shield as far east as the Indiana/Ohio border by midday, while the
GFS and Canadian models focus on a shorter WAA-type wing of
precipitation over the eastern CWA and the main thrust across the
northwest. However, enough agreement exists to warrant some likely
PoP`s Wednesday afternoon and evening across the northern and
central CWA. This marks the start of a series of shortwaves that
will be moving across the Mississippi Valley through late week.
This may have the ultimate effect of tempering some of the heat
and humidity late in the period, but for now, will maintain the
mid 80s for highs Wednesday-Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

VFR throughout with high pressure dominant. Cumulus clouds across
the area during the day, diminishing around sunset. Winds
generally less than 10 kts and out of the north. Other than that,
there will be minimal cirrus and winds becoming more
east/northeasterly tomorrow morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...HJS



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