Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 230844
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
344 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

Large high pressure will slowly shift east today, but still control
the weather over the area. So skies will remain sunny to mostly
sunny and winds will continue to be light. Afternoon high
temperatures will be a tad warmer than yesterday, only reaching into
the lower 70s by this afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

First half of the forecast remains quiet and rather benign with high
pressure building into and remaining in control of the Midwest.
Surface ridge dominating much of the eastern half of the CONUS
actually as the pattern stagnates with the best upper level dynamic
and height gradient at h5 to the north.  Thermal ridging out to the
west slowly leaking some waa into the region in addition to
increasingly southerly flow as the ridge axis slips to the east.
Max temps continue to go up a couple of degrees each day and
eventually slightly above seasonal normals by late in the week. A
weak trof brings some precip to the Plains Wednesday, but the ridge
remains in place and dry air eroding the activity before impacting
Central Illinois. In the extended, the GFS and the ECMWF still in
conflict over dealing with the pattern shift towards the end of the
weekend and beginning of next week.  GFS brings a diffuse wave into
the picture Sunday/Monday.  Where the ECMWF was previously dry, it
is starting to pick up on a wave as well, starting as a retrograde
aloft and reorganizing a bit late in the weekend in the southern
Plains.  Overall, the models are having some major issues with when
and how to break up the substantial ridge.  Keeping the forecast
conservative for now with only slight mentions until the models
become a little more cohesive.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

Mainly VFR conditions and light winds expected for the next 24
hours. High pressure crossing the region tonight will bring light
and variable winds until morning...becoming S-SE 4-7 kts after
14Z. Until 12Z...Light fog possibly causing local IFR/MVFR vsby KPRG-
KTAZ southward where slightly higher dewpoints and lower
temperatures shown in surface observations. Skies SKC-BKN200 as
high clouds gradually spread across central IL through the period.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON






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