Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
256 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The primary surface boundary has lifted northwest of the entire
region this afternoon, which has allowed for plenty of sunshine
over the southern half of the area. Temperatures have climbed into
the upper 80s with dewpoints holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s
over most of the area. Besides breaking a few high temperature
records, this will result in more destabilization than previously

The bottom line is that a few severe thunderstorms will be
possible mainly over the northern half of our southeast Missouri
counties late this afternoon and into the early evening.
Marginally severe hail and a few damaging wind gusts will be

Precipitable water values will be near the 99th percentile
climatologically, so heavy rainfall will be a concern tonight and
Thursday. However, the storms should move at a decent clip, so
the primary heavy rainfall/flash flooding concern will be in areas
that experience training late this afternoon and tonight. This
will be most likely along the I-64 corridor in southern Illinois.

The front has pushed farther north than expected today, and
subsequently the 12Z models and later runs of the HRRR are slower
to bring the cold front back through the area. It will not likely
reach KCGI and KEVV until after 06Z tonight. With the primary
convective development tonight expected behind the front, much of
the area may end up dry through the evening. Will rapidly spread
the likely to categorical PoPs southeast through the area late
tonight. Thursday morning should be the wettest period for most
of the forecast area. The models are shifting the precipitation
east of the area by 00Z Friday. The remainder of the short term
forecast is dry.

Temperatures will be rather mild tonight with some cold advection
in the northwest late. However, there will be little recovery
Thursday, so it will feel drastically cooler with highs in the
60s, clouds and gusty northwest winds. Winds will stay up Thursday
night, so lows will be near normal, but the surface high will
settle overhead late Friday and Friday night. Friday will see
below normal temperatures despite full sun, and Friday night will
be see the coolest readings. Most of the area will be near 40,
with some locations dropping into the upper 30s. Dewpoints are
expected to be in the upper 30s throughout the area, so lows may
trend even lower with time. This could be the first potentially
frosty night of the fall.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Above average confidence in the extended period. Recent operational
deterministic and ensemble mean runs are in agreement for the
general synoptic pattern over the weekend and through the beginning
of next week.

An H500 ridge moves in, bringing NW flow early Saturday behind the
deep, departing H500 trough. Daytime temperatures will be a bit
cooler than normal Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. May
see 70 degrees in some locations, depending on how quickly southerly
sfc flow returns.

For Sunday through Tuesday, our forecast area remains in warm
southerly sfc flow and relatively dry northwest flow aloft. With a
clipper passing well to our northeast and high pressure set up in
the Southeast through this period, we will likely see a relatively
breezy Sunday. Overall this pattern means our forecast will stay
mild and dry through this period. Starting in the middle to the end
of next week, we start seeing hints of the next potential rain
chances, but uncertainty is still great as model solutions diverge
significantly regarding a deepening trough along the West Coast.

Temperatures bottom out Saturday morning with lows near 40 degrees.
Temperatures for Sunday through the middle of next week will be
slightly above normal, with highs in the lower to middle 70s, and
lows in the lower to middle 50s.


Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The general trend in the guidance today is to hold off the arrival
of the cold front and any precipitation at the TAF sites. Will
therefore hold off on its arrival and any precipitation until the
overnight hours. Not sure how much TS there will be at this time,
so will maintain the VCTS treatment for 3-4 hours late tonight and
into the morning hours Thursday. Guidance is bullish for IFR
conditions behind the front, but confidence is not that great, so
have limited IFR to KEVV and KOWB in the morning hours. Gusty
northwest winds should develop at all sites through the morning.




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