Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KPAH 231855
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1255 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST EARLY AS IT MOVES PAST PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO 1032-37 MB SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
IN THE INTERIM OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD DIP DOWN TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOW TEENS AGAIN TONIGHT...AND TOMORROW...EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE...WITH STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK.

ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL PASS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TUE NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. WE`LL EXPERIENCE TEENS AGAIN TUE NIGHT
AND FOLLOW THAT WITH MOST IF NOT ALL THE REGION EXCEEDING 32 FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IN THE FARTHEST NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IT
WILL BE CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THU/THU NIGHT ON STEADY NRLY WINDS. BY DAYTIME FRI...THE CENTER OF A
1040 MB SFC HIGH WILL BE NEAR OUR REGION...YIELDING SINGLE DIGIT
DEWPOINTS AND MORNING LOWS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

STARTING FRI NIGHT...DETERMINISTIC MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGAN
TO DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND THE ONSET OF SSWRLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH EROSION OF THE HIGH AND ESTABLISHMENT OF DEEP
MOIST RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MEASURABLE PCPN MAY NOT BE ACHIEVED IN
OUR REGION UNTIL SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME OF THE MO OZARK
FOOTHILLS. THIS IS BASICALLY WHAT THE INITIALIZATION BLEND
PROVIDED...AND SEEMED PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE NOT BEEN REAL STABLE IN THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION...A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SAT NIGHT...PROVIDING MORE FOCUS
FOR LIFT.

CURRENT MODEL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WERE DIFFERENT ENOUGH (ECMWF MUCH
WARMER THAN THE GFS) TO CALL IT RAIN AND SNOW FOR SAT NIGHT. TEMPS
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN BY SUN. IN
THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY THE
LOWER 50S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY MID AND HIGH COVER
TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CIGS MAY LOWER THRU VFR BUT SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLY ABOVE RESTRICTED FLIGHT RULES CATEGORIES. LATE
TONIGHT-INTO TMRW...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CLOUDS SHOULD THIN IF NOT DISPERSE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.