Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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644
FXUS63 KPAH 280722
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Above average confidence in the short term.

The short term forecast will continue to be dependent on the
strength and position of a dirty H5 ridge that fluctuates in
strength and position across our CWA through the period. As a
result, precipitation chances will be rather small and more diurnal
in nature with coverage mainly dependent on the location of small
scale/mesoscale focusing mechanisms such as outflow boundaries and
differential heating.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period.
Heat index values will top out in the 100 to 105 degree range over
parts of the area this afternoon and Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

An upper level high will be situated from Texas/Oklahoma eastward
into the western Gulf Coast states, with an amplified upper ridge
extending clear up into central Canada. With time, this upper high
retrogrades westward. As this occurs, the upper flow across our area
becomes more northwesterly. Models still try to bring a weak upper
wave across the area on Wednesday. The ECMWF has been more
consistent with this feature while the GFS have never been too keen
on the idea (much weaker with the upper wave). Nevertheless, see no
real reason to stray from the low POPs we already have going for now.

Looks like dry conditions should prevail for Thursday and Friday,
unless there is a weak disturbance in the northwest flow aloft that
sets off some convection. But, at the surface, high pressure will be
pressing southward into the area and drying us out quite a bit,
especially over the eastern half of the CWA, which should really
limit rain chances. In addition, we should see some relief in the
mugginess factor around here for a little while, along with a few
degree drop in temperatures.

The ECWMF indicates an upper level ridge will start building into
the area as early as Friday. The GFS eventually catches up by the
weekend with the building upper ridge and this should mean a fairly
dry holiday weekend ahead, but getting a little warmer. The GFS
ensembles also suggests dry weather from late week and into the
weekend. Even though eyes are on a possible tropical system or
hurricane approaching the Gulf coast sometime over the weekend, most
of the model solutions as of late do not take the remnants of that
system into our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Little change from the 00z Sunday WFO PAH TAF issuance. Maintain
VFR conditions throughout period. The NAM-WRF guidance suggests
there may be showers close enough near KCGI during the afternoon
to warrant the mention of vicinity showers.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...Smith



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