Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 200442
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1141 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 845 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Temperatures falling quickly this evening before the mid-level
clouds increase over the region. Made some minor adjustments to
the temperature trends, but the overnight trends should be ok.
Really don`t see enough lift or instability with the system late
tonight and early Monday to overcome the dry air in the low-
levels, but will leave the slight chances in there for now.
Sprinkles may end up being the best forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

The persistent lower clouds from this morning have almost vanished,
with higher clouds now the rule, ahead of a compact vort moving
across SW MO. This feature will continue to result in mid to high
clouds through the night. Focus overnight, turns to mid level
energy diving SE from the Upper Midwest. As the resultant mid
level trof axis swings across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
regions late tonight through midday Monday, the respectable
forcing with it may be enough to develop isolated very light rain
showers or sprinkles late tonight through Monday morning. Will
keep PoPs at a minimum given the lack of depth in columnar
moisture at any given time with this system. Most areas may see
nothing at all. Basically no change from what we had before.

In the systems wake, high pressure will build in, with dry weather
the rule Monday afternoon right on through Tuesday night. We did
increase cloud cover a bit for Tuesday. We could be looking at
another round of decent strato-cu, given the cyclonic influence
with the upper low just off to our east, and moisture evident
around 925-900mb again with northerly flow. Temperatures will
continue to be a blend of MOS, previous numbers and base model
output.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A tranquil weather pattern is expected to continue through much of
the week. An upper level ridge is forecast to build east into the
Mississippi Valley through Thursday as the core of surface high
pressure gradually shifts south from the Great Lakes. Models diverge
somewhat late in the week, as the GFS takes an approaching shortwave
trough north of the region, while the ECMWF continues to deflect the
feature to the south as it runs into the ridge overhead. However,
the end result is essentially the same--a prolonged period of dry
weather through next weekend.

A gradual moderating trend is forecast through the late week. Highs
will slowly warm from the lower 60s Wednesday back to near 70 by the
weekend. A gradual moderation of lows through the 40s is anticipated
as well. Guidance continues to suggest little concern for frost
during this time. However, Wednesday night will need to be closely
monitored with lows currently forecast near 40.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mid clouds are already beginning to develop across the region, as
a mid/upper-level storm system approaches from the north. The
clouds should become solid enough to prevent fog development
overnight. A light south wind at daybreak will veer to the west
southwest and pick up a bit, possibly up to 10kts with some gusts
into the teens. The strongest winds are likely to be at KEVV and
KOWB. Cannot rule out some more sprinkles at KOWB near the cold
front straddling 00Z Tuesday. A wind shift to the northwest at
under 5kts is expected with the front just after 00Z at all
sites. Skies should clear out behind the front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS





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