000
FXUS63 KPAH 161833
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
133 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MODELS HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THAT CONVECTION JUST NOW
INTO SRN IL/SW IN/AND SE MO WOULD BE DECREASING WITH TIME.
GENERALLY WILL STICK WITH LOWER POPS GIVEN THERE IS NO SPECTACULAR
SIGNALS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN FACT...NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...THE SREF AND NAM SUGGEST CHANCES LOWER FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS WELL...SAVE FOR MAYBE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SEMO INTO WRN KY. PLAN ON LOWERING POPS BUT MAINTAINING
LIKELY POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. USED A BLEND OF SREF BIAS CORRECTED/NAM-GFS MOS AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY..THEN UNTIL THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK PLACING US IN AN EVER STEEPENING NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY. HOWEVER
THEY WANT TO STALL IT OUT OVER US. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF IS EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP. THE GFS
STALL IT OUT RIGHT UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND GIVES SOME QPF ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF STALLS IT OUT MORE
OVER THE TN VALLEY THEN NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KY AND HOLDS THE
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. THEN SATURDAY THE THE ECMWF INDICATES AN MCS
TRAVELING ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW GIVING OUR NE AND GLANCING BLOW.
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN MCS COMING OUT OF MO AND PHASING WITH THE
STALLED FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING QPF TO THE AREA. THE GFS
HOWEVER MIGHT BE CONTAMINATED WITH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PAH CWA. AT THIS TIME PREFER TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL A LITTLE BETTER CONTINUITY CAN BE ESTABLISHED. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TOO WET AND IT SHOULD BE RAINING RIGHT NOW IF YOU BOUGHT INTO
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF MODELS RUNS BUT YET MID CLOUD DECKS ARE THE MOST
WE HAVE ATTM.

AS FOR TEMPS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARMING
TREND TAKING PLACE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED AND PLAN TO FOLLOW THAT
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO THE WNW SUGGEST A DIMINISHING ASPECT.
OTHERWISE JUST SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND HIGH AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$