Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 161156
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
555 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. Also updated the forecast
to reflect continued improvement in visibility early this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Primary near term forecast concerns include lingering patchy dense
fog early this morning, followed by our next chance of showers
and thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday.

Patchy dense fog has been slow to clear overnight, especially
across far southeast Missouri and the Purchase area of western
Kentucky. However, drier air in the wake of a cold frontal passage
has been slowly working its way into the region and should continue
to do so through the early morning. As a result, we expect the fog
should continue to slowly dissipate from northwest to southeast.
Will let the SPS and graphical nowcast highlight the extent of
remaining fog unless conditions deteriorate towards daybreak.

The rest of today into tonight should be dry as the southern
extent of a Canadian high pressure ridge shifts east across the
Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Expect a fair amount of high
clouds to start the day, but these should manage to thin out as
the day progresses and reveal more sunshine by afternoon.

Shortwave energy progged to enter the Pacific Northwest tonight
is forecast to move swiftly east across the Plains into the
Mississippi Valley Friday night and Saturday. At the surface, low
pressure is forecast to develop in the lee of the Rockies on
Friday then rapidly move northeast into the Great Lakes region on
Saturday. A cold front accompanying this low should pass through
the forecast area on Saturday. As this occurs, the potential for
showers and even some thunderstorms will exist until the front
makes passage.

While a few showers cannot be ruled out across northern and
western portions of the forecast area Friday and Friday evening,
the main focus for showers and thunderstorms remains late Friday
night into Saturday. Wind profiles associated with this system
remain impressive, but instability still looks to be a key
limiting factor. Nonetheless, given the passage of the cold front
during daytime hours, even a small amount of destabilization could
lead to the enhancement of thunderstorm updrafts. At this time,
the main concern would be strong to locally damaging wind gusts.
Even outside of thunderstorms, strong and gusty winds are expected
on Saturday, with sustained 15 to 25 mph winds occasionally
gusting as high as 30 to 40 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

A period of quiet weather is anticipated in the long term. We will
use a blend of the EC and GFS through Tuesday given respectable
model agreement. The GFS seems to be phasing northern and southern
stream energy too much through mid week vs. the ECMWF depiction of
split flow energy evolving to our west and north. The ensembles are
still showing respectable spreads. But overall even that flow
difference will have little impact on what should be a mainly dry
period.

High pressure will be the dominant feature Sunday, moving slowly
from west to east across the region. Temperatures rebound some
Monday on the back side of the high as southerly flow develops. The
models move a dry front across the area Tuesday, followed by return
strong high pressure and cooler, dry weather for Wednesday. We went
slightly higher than blend of temps, closer to MOS Sunday and Monday
given low cloud percentages forecast during the day. After that, the
blend values were in line with MOS and persistence, and followed.
Lows were computed in a similar fashion.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 555 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Most of the patchy dense fog has diminished from the northwest early
this morning. Other than a temporary restriction to MVFR ceilings in
the Evansville area through mid morning, VFR conditions are forecast
through tonight with nothing more than high clouds expected. North
winds will average around 5 knots today, then veer to the east and
southeast tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP



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