Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 060452
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEAST CO/CENTRAL NEBRASKA SURFACE LOW...BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH VARIATIONS IN THE
RADIATIONAL LOSS CLOUD COVER AND ANTECEDENT CANADIAN FOREST FIRE
SMOKE PLUME ALOFT...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT DROPS WILL BE SLOWED TO THE POINT
THAT OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCTION WILL BE DELAYED OR BECOME NON-
EXISTENT IN SOME AREAS. ANY FOG WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...THE EASTERN PENNYRILE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY
AND IN FAVORED PROTECTED AREA OF CROWLEY`S RIDGE AND THE SHAWNEE
HILLS...WHERE SHARP ELEVATION CHANGES WILL FAVOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MODIFY THERMAL LAYER HUMIDITY PROFILES TO
GENERATE PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE. UNTIL THEN...WE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAINFREE
CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING TROF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE RAMPED UP SOME MORE MONDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS. AS STATED EARLIER...WILL
NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHCS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THINKING IS STILL MAINLY
NON SEVERE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL ON
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ADDED
SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO
KEEP DECENT SHOWER/STORM CHCS IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME. STILL LOOKS
AS THOUGH BEST CHCS WILL BE UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL START WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN OF LATE. BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE MID WEEK TRANSITIONS TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BY LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING IN A DRIER
DIRECTION AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN STARTED TO
INDICATE THIS A FEW RUNS BACK...AND THE CANADIAN HAS ADDED SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WAS THE
ECMWF...AT LEAST AS OF ITS 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO
TRENDED DRIER BY LATE WEEK AS THE MAIN ENERGY SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA.

UNFORTUNATELY...THERE WAS LITTLE COLLABORATIVE STOMACH TO REDUCE OR
ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MUCH FROM THE INITIALIZED
BLEND. SO WE ENDED UP LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
EVEN THOUGH OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD MAY WELL END UP DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOW VFR CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DECIDED TO PLAY THE FOG FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. LIMITED IFR VISIBILITIES TO KPAH OVERNIGHT WHERE THEY WERE
ALREADY 3SM BR AT 0445Z.

ANY ROGUE SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR KPAH AND KCGI TOWARD MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND
THEREFORE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A WEAK MID
/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS



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