Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 022007
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
307 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

The majority of the WFO PAH forecast area remains sandwiched
between a shearing/elongated zone of weakening lift to the
northwest part of the area (Southeast Missouri and Southwest
Illinois) and broad lift and weak/neutral warm air advection along
and north of the surface boundary in northern Mississippi and
Central Tennessee. With the cirrus shield overhead, the
temperature differential has slowed significant cold air cumulus
development, with the exception of the boundary areas. Therefore,
precipitation chances have and will remain minimized across most
of the area through the overnight hours.

The degree of moisture and lift is more uncertain for Tuesday, so
have low confidence on measurable precipitation, even with a
diffuse lift with the progressive trough.

The best lift and instability still continues to be targeted for
Wednesday (just before daybreak) as the Great Lakes trough
sharpens and moves the primary axis past the WFO PAH forecast area
Wednesday afternoon. Introduced a morning mention of differential
thunderstorm PoPs to the pre-existing Wednesday afternoon
thunderstorm mention.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Deep upper low will drift east from the Ohio Valley toward the Mid
Atlantic seaboard on Thursday, and gradually allow a high amplitude
Omega blocking pattern to take shape over the middle of the country
by Friday. Initially, cyclonic flow on the back side of the upper low
could lead to more in the way of cloud cover than is advertised by
many of the models. Therefore, will bump up cloud amounts somewhat
on Thursday into the partly sunny category, esp over eastern
portions of the forecast area. Would not be surprised if it turns
out mostly cloudy Thursday in some of those locations, but will half-
step it for this package. If we end up with more clouds, this would
also, of course, have an impact on max temperatures for the day.
Some of our eastern counties may struggle to break 60 degrees if
clouds end up hanging in there.

Things will be warming up dramatically as we end the work week and
head into the weekend. The high amplitude ridge will build farther
east and then become nearly stationary. Winds will gradually shift
around to a more southerly direction, esp as the weekend progresses.
Thinking is many locations will see high temperatures into the lower
half of the 80s by that time, under mostly clear conditions.

The blocking pattern may begin to break down a bit early next week,
though models can be too quick in breaking down this type of high
amplitude pattern. Because of this, will limit POPS to generally 20
percent or less on Monday with above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

The combination of diurnal mixing and the proximity of the mean
frontal boundary near the WFO PAH TAF sites will keep ceiling
near upper MVFR and/or lower VFR category. As cold air advection
and drier air eventually builds in, any MVFR ceilings over KPAH
and KCGI should become more scattered cloud bases overnight. KEVV
and KOWB should maintain MVFR ceilings through the remainder of
the forecast.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...Smith



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