Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 311754
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A line of showers is marching across the remainder of the
southeastern tier of counties at this writing, and should be gone
by press time. Visible imagery shows clearing has worked its way
into the western tier of counties at this writing, and it will
spread eastward as well. However, cylone induced low clouds will
follow the upper Low and impact our far northeastern, and eastern
counties, into the overnight hours.

Dew points have already plummetted into the lower 20s for some of
our northern counties, and this too will spread southward and
eastward overnight. Lows will be just below freezing, but with the
parent Cyclone rotating across our eastern counties, and the High
still to our west, the gradient will maintain some wind through much
of the overnight hours. We will let the freeze warning remain, as
temps will be below freezing, but with the dew point depression
likely remaining in the 5-10F range for the bulk of the night, and
winds staying up for most, if not the entire night, we`ll back off
on the frost wording for tonight.

The better hard freeze/frost will be tomorrow night, as the
surface High moves overhead, winds die early, and skies are clear.
It will be an ideal night for a widespread hard freeze/frost Sat
night. Then lots of sunshine Sunday will allow a diurnal warmup of
25 degrees, but that still means 50s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

South winds will increase across the region on Monday ahead of an
approaching cold front.  Temperatures will continue to moderate back
up to near normal readings for Monday and Monday night.  ECMWF
brings the cold front across the PAH forecast area Tuesday into
Tuesday night, while GFS is about 6 hours slower. GEM solution is
now really slowing the front down and tries to hang it up over our
area, so focus of forecast will remain on an ECMWF/GFS blend.
ECMWF brings some light precip into west/northwest portions of the
fa late Monday night, while GFS holds off until Tuesday morning, but
model consistency leans toward keeping some small pops in before 12z
Tuesday. Bulk of precip will be late Tuesday into early Wednesday,
and went likely pops for our west/northwest counties on Tuesday, all
but our far southeast counties Tuesday night, then across our
southeast counties Wednesday.  Although timing is still a little bit
in questions, do feel pretty confident all area will receive
measurable rainfall within that time frame. Behind the front, dry
conditions will return as a weak upper level ridge moves over the
area.  Near to a little below normal temperatures can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Visible imagery time lapse shows clearing on track, working in
from the west, arriving at terminals in 18-21Z time frame.
However, it also shows cyclonic flow clouds in the low VFR-MVFR
range that are poised to rotate southeastward and impact our
northeast terminals (KEVV/KOWB) shortly thereafter. Clouds will
linger longer in the northeast (KEVV/KOWB), due to the influence
of the Low. Winds/gusts will stay up longer there as well.
Improvement is noted during the planning period, though the
gradient wont altogether loosen until beyond the valid forecast
time this issuance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$






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