Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
FXUS63 KPAH 270802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
302 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The cold front is just entering our far northwest counties as of
08Z. Isolated light showers/sprinkles continue across the southeast
half of the area, and according to the latest HRRR runs, they
should progress eastward and out of the area shortly after 12Z.

The main issue for today is how long the low stratus will linger
over the area behind the front. The 00Z NAM and GFS are in
reasonable agreement in clearing the northeast around 18Z, and the
southern portions of the area after 21Z. Tried to show these
trends in the Sky Cover grids. As a result went on the lower end
of guidance for highs today.

There will be decent dry advection behind the cold front today,
but the winds will die off this evening, as the surface high
settles overhead. With the late clearing expected over much of the
area, fog development or the re-development of low clouds will be
a strong possibility tonight. Not sure if the dry advection will
have much of an impact on the fog potential, so for now will just
mention patches or areas of fog for much of the region. A Dense
Fog Advisory may ultimately be needed tonight, but need to get
the clouds out of here before getting serious about that

High pressure aloft will build over the region Friday into
Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will build east of the
area on Friday allowing south winds to return to the region. They
are likely to stay up Friday night and increase and become gusty
on Saturday. All of this will lead to a strong warming trend and
dry weather through Saturday.

Went on the low end of guidance for highs today, then stayed close
to consensus for lows tonight. Thereafter, generally went above
guidance for highs and lows. Much of the region should climb into
the 80s on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Ridging remains dominant across the WFO PAH forecast area through
Monday. Warm air advection increase slightly from the west on Monday
in advance of a shortwave trough in the Dakotas on Monday, moving
into the Western Great Lakes early Tuesday. The frontal zone with
this shortwave never moves into the WFO PAH forecast area, serving
only to increase the ageostrophic response with more warm air

The West Coast closed low finally moves onshore and toward New
Mexico late Wednesday night.  Both the 00z Thursday ECMWF and GFS
guidance hint at an increase in deep layer moisture around the low
level ridge east of the WFO PAH forecast area after next Tuesday.
Although not ideal, both models suggest that there may be support
for pre-frontal, weak warm advection (conveyor belt) shower
activity. Really can`t argue either way from the initialized
regionally blended model guidance output, so left a small chance for
showers in place for parts of the forecast area Wednesday and

Collaboratively adjusted max temperatures up 1 degree Tuesday and
Wednesday in advance of the approaching closed low in New Mexico.
Otherwise, no other significant changes to regionally blended
guidance in the extended period.


Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Scattered rain showers will be spotty early in the period but
should come to an end by 09-10Z. Frontal boundary has yet to
arrive but will do so during the overnight period and into
Thursday morning. Behind the winds shifting to the northwest,
cigs will likely drop to MVFR and remain there for most of the
morning. We should see cigs scatter out/become VFR after 18Z.
Winds will remain out of the northwest aob 10 kts. Winds will
become rather light to calm Thursday night which will likely set
the stage for some fog beyond this TAF period.




LONG TERM...Smith is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.