Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 250821
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
321 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Developing/approaching cold front makes its passage, wind shift,
Tuesday night. Cooler/drier air lags some, with Wednesday
transitioning thru the 80s/60s, and smallish pops associated with
mainly diurnal instability in cata-frontic environ Wed pm.

Prior to the front`s passage, we remain in the uber heat/humidity
airmass, largely influenced by the predominant Ohio river valley
High pressure system. However, weak low pressure aloft along the
Gulf Coastal/lower Mississippi river valley interplays and muddies
the firmness of the High`s far side grip, particularly this pm,
with some of the short res modeling suggesting isolated
showers/storms possible. Even so, there appears to be no
collaborative consensus to add a Pop at this writing, so we`ll
retain silent Pops and brief the coming shift for a 17-23z
isolated potential pop.

We still like Highs a degree or two above guidance Today, similar
to past days, with Highs around 90 and lows in the mid-upr 60s to
start out the week. These will transition to 80s/60s Wed, as
mentioned, after the cold front passes.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Surface high pressure building over central Canada at mid week will
slide over the Great Lakes region by early next weekend.  This will
put our region in persistent cool northerly flow through Saturday.
Temperatures will drop to near seasonal readings by Thursday into
Friday.  Readings will be several degrees below normal by Friday
night through Sunday.   Dew points in the middle 40s to around 50
degrees will keep humidity levels low.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Patchy morning fog will again be a potential offering for flight
restrictions to vsbys. Diurnally drive cu bases will develop in
the 4-6K FT AGL Range. Short res modeling suggests these may
become broken at times during the pm hours/with isolated
showers/storms, however the Pop is too low for inclusion at this
writing. A return to benign conditions will come as the daytime
fuel is lost during the evening and early night time hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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