Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 280659
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
159 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH VORTICITY SPOKING THRU
THE MEAN LONG WAVE UPPER TROF AND INDUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
-RW/-SW MAINLY SEMO THIS MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH RIDGES TO
OUR EAST AT THE SAME TIME...AND ANOTHER COLD/RAW DAY IS THE
RESULT.

ON SUNDAY...A FRONT ENTERS/MAKES PASSAGE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT AN ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESP
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY
EVENING. AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MODERATION IN WX/TEMPS.

SATURDAY 40S/20S WILL RECOVER TO 50S/30S SUNDAY AND THEN 60S/40S
TO START THE MODERATING TREND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MEDIUM TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
LONG TERM...THEN DECREASING CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF DUE
TO LONG RANGE MODEL DISPARITY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS RUN
IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND THE DRY ECMWF. THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD CONTINUE TO GROW
FARTHER APART WITH TIME...THEREFORE NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING RETURN MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA...BRINGING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THEN CENTERING OUR AREA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR FEATURES BUT LAGS BEHIND THE GFS AROUND 24
HOURS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO JUST KEEP CHC/SCHC POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WITH TIME MODELS WILL GET
ON THE SAME PAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MID CLOUDS SEMO MAY INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT LIQUID/FROZEN PCPN
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY WEST OF KCGI
TERMINAL SO WE`LL JUST INTRODUCE SOME SCT-BKN MID DECKS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BOTH CIGS/VSBYS THRU THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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