Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 290640
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
140 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisecting our CWA from NW-SE
should begin to dissipate through the evening hours.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain in the same general area
overnight, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front during
the day. This will place our region in the warm sector, but widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
northern and western sections where capping will be weakest.

Precipitation chances area wide increase starting Friday night as a
weather system approaches from the plains. As this system draws
closer to our CWA Friday night, precipitation chances will increase
from the west. Unfortunately precipitation coverage will be highest
Saturday and Saturday night which will likely put some what of a
damper on plans for the holiday weekend.

Through the short term period and beyond, even though heat index
values are expected to remain below advisory levels, persons across
the lower Ohio valley still need to take all of the necessary
precautions to mitigate the effects from high heat and humidity
over the upcoming holiday weekend and through at least the middle of
next week as temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through the period along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR fog expected at all sites by 09z, with drops to IFR possible.
Light to calm winds overnight will become south around 6 kts by 15z
with VFR conditions through the day. Isolated shra possible in the
afternoon, with shra/tstm chances increasing from the west after
00z, but chances are too low to include in TAFS at this time.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





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