Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 021610
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1110 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Mid-morning update to reflect concentration of rain/qpf toward the
southern Pennyrile region of West Kentucky during the afternoon.
Also added a differential mention of thunderstorms along the KY/TN
border counties.

Both short and medium range guidance, as well as short term
sensible weather trends appear to limit the extent of measurable
precipitation within a majority of the WFO PAH CWA. Will not rule
out a stray sprinkle of rain elsewhere in the forecast area, but
do not believe it warrants a measurable PoP mention.

May need to make a secondary adjustement for temperatures as well,
but needed to make an interim downward adjustments on PoP and
Weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Only average confidence in the short term due to subtle model
differences regarding multiple light precipitation events.

With the approach of an H5 short wave out of the central plains and
a surface low tracking northeast across the deep south,
precipitation is forecast to develop over the area today, especially
the southeast half of the CWA. There may be just enough instability
over the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky for thunder,
so mentioned it there only.

Until the passage of said H5 short wave this evening, scattered
showers will be possible mainly over the northeast half of the CWA.
As another short wave drops southeast across the region as it
rotates around the southwest flank of a huge upper low just north of
the Great lakes region on Tuesday, small precipitation chances are
possible over parts of southeast IL, southwest IN, and northwest KY
where deep layer moisture will be greatest. Tuesday night should be
dry in the wake of this feature.

On Wednesday another short wave rotating around the big low will
push a cold front southward across the region. Again precipitation
chances should be limited to mainly the northeast half of the CWA
where moisture is expected to be deepest. Small precipitation
chances may linger over the far eastern sections of our CWA
Wednesday evening, then dry after midnight.

Temperatures will average at to just below normal through the short
term period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

We will start out the long term period with strong northwesterly
flow over the region as a closed low over the Appalachians
eventually moves out to the eastern seaboard. Sfc high pressure to
our northwest will steadily build into the area by Thursday night
and into Friday providing dry weather. Lingering low level moisture
will likely mean will have some cloudiness to deal with on Thursday
as this upper low departs, mainly in our eastern sections. This will
keep temperatures cool there and in the 60s while most of SEMO will
be seeing around 70 degrees.

While we will remain in northwesterly flow aloft into Friday, we
will begin to see upper heights rising as a highly amplified upper
ridge in the central part of the CONUS steadily moves eastward.
Therefore, with that said and hopefully less cloudiness, we should
be able to get everyone into the 70s by Friday. Upper 70s should be
no problem to reach by Saturday as upper heights rise even further,
and the sfc high over the region sags southward allowing our winds
to finally shift to the southwest.

Our next chance for rain may arrive as early as Sunday/Sunday night
but models are differing on the speed of our next frontal system.
The ECMWF brings the front south into northern parts of the area on
Sunday and then lift it back north as a warm front Sunday night and
Monday. The 00Z GFS indicates the front never really makes it into
our CWA before the parent system shifts eastward and brings
precipitation into the area for Monday. Still too many details to be
ironed out to warrant getting carried away with anything more than

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Winds will generally be from the northwest at or below 10kts
through the period. A series of upper-level disturbances will
attempt to bring some light showers to the area today and through
the evening, but nothing that would impact aviation. A lower VFR
ceiling is expected to develop by afternoon and continue through
the evening. The main concern will be if cigs will drop at any of
the sites to MVFR. Best chances might be during the evening and
overnight when better low level moisture is available. However, a
band of MVFR cigs will threaten KEVV this morning as well.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith



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