Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 152002
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
202 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Cold front passing through the region late this afternoon will
bring an end to the light rain and drizzle now occurring over
much of the area. Skies will then clear fairly quickly from
northwest to southeast tonight as drier air filters in behind the
front. Winds will turn more northerly on Thursday, reinforcing the
seasonably chilly air over the region. Daytime highs should only
reach the mid 40s to mid 50s. After a chilly start well down into
the 30s Friday morning, winds will shift to the south and increase
during the day as high pressure moves off to the east and the
next weather system moves east into the Plains and Midwest. The
brisk southerly flow should help afternoon temperatures rebound
back to near normal levels for mid November.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

The beginning of the longer term forecast period, begins with
approach and passage of a cold front through the WFO PAH forecast
area. The main challenge the last several days has been the timing
and the degree of instability for organized/severe convective
activity.

Although most of the models share modest 0-6km bulk shear, generally
50 knots or higher, across the area late Friday night and early
Saturday, the low level shear at 0-3km is noticeably less and the
convective available potential energy (CAPE) is minimal. The
deterministic GFS 0-1km Mixed Layer CAPE (MUCAPE) is slightly more
robust than the ECMWF low level CAPE and a longer duration from
Friday night into Saturday. At this point, prefer the ECMWF solution
which brings the greatest CAPE into the area toward the late morning
on Saturday. There is a slight displacement of the instability and
shear in the positive tilt Saturday morning, which may work to
mitigate any organized severe potential.

Otherwise, generally dry and cool conditions will prevail Saturday
evening through next Tuesday night. There is a chance for rain on
Wednesday (day before Thanksgiving), but at this time there is a
minimal chance for rain going into Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Surface cold front just west of the WFO PAH TAF sites prior to
18z. The front is progressing faster than previously forecast.
Prior to and for a few hours after the frontal passage, ceilings
will drop in the MVFR category. There will be sharp clearing line
on the back edge of the frontal zone with ceilings becoming
unrestricted by 00-01z Thursday. Some high level cirrus deck will
return late in the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith



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