Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 260357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1058 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The 12Z Models suggest the developing/incoming cold front will be
a little slower with its entrance/passage, and our collaborative
efforts will reflect that, particularly with regard to
POP/WX/Sky. These changes will be small and generally massaged
from the blended approach. We still call for a northwest Pop
appearance Wed pm, just a little further north and west.
Similarly, we still call for a Wed night fropa and associated peak
Pop period. We linger the sky cover a little more over the
north/west and a little longer, however, than the blend. Same for
Thursday morning, with a slightly delayed clear-out east vs
previous forecast/run. Otherwise, much of the remainder of the
forecast is little changed. The instability modeled present is
mainly for Wed pm/evening, but we do go ahead and linger a slgt
chance overnight east, where a sliver of a couple hundred J/KG
MUCAPE persists along/with the front until its complete passage.

Expect warming pre frontal temps tmrw to rise thru the 70s, with
an 80 in the south/east not out of the question. Mild 50s tmrw
night will spill back into the 40s again in the post frontal
airmass Thursday night, as will Thursday highs be tapered off back
into the 60s and lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Much improved confidence considering the models reflect the previous
ECMWF dry solution for the weekend.

Very low confidence in precip chance Friday night. Otherwise medium
confidence on other parameters. Low confidence in next weeks precip

The models are in much better agreement on a dry cold fropa Friday
into Saturday. Upper level ridging over TX will slowly drift
eastward into the Gulf states along with a surface high. This
will keep the Gulf shut off with very limited moisture over our
area. This is why confidence has increased from yesterdays wet
fropa some of the models were advertising. Even without the high
the short residence time from tomorrows fropa would not allow
adequate moisture back into the area for Friday nights front. Next
week the ECMWF brings yet another dry front through the region.
In contrast the GFS brings a wet front into the mid Mississippi
Valley and stalls it over the area keeping rain chances in for
most of next week. Will lean toward the more consistent ECMWF
solution for next week but will wait and see what the extended
init and collaboration produce before final thoughts on the

As for temps, highs will roller coaster up and down through the
70s for most areas. Likewise with lows ranging mostly in the 50s
for the extended.


Issued at 1058 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Vfr conditions will continue through the taf period. Extensive high
cloudiness will gradually lower and thicken on Wednesday, but cigs
will remain near or above 10k feet. Some patchy shallow ground fog
is likely again around sunrise at the kcgi/kpah sites, similar to
early Tuesday morning. Winds will be from the south to southwest on
Wednesday, averaging 5 to 10 knots. Some isolated showers or storms
are possible Wednesday evening as a weak cold front approaches,
however the probabilities at each taf site are too low to include
in tafs at this time.




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