Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 230910
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 303 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

Low pressure will eject from TX across TN valley today-tonight. It
will lift moisture bullseye with it, and yield chance to
categorical pops across PAH FA. Temps are warm for liquid til
getting on the backside of the Low Wed, as it departs the
Commonwealth. Will include chance of snow on backside lift out,
but any amounts will be minor/negligible.

May see return of sunshine Thursday as parent upper low ejects
system more fully. 50s today replaced by 40s next two days, while
lows in 40s drop to 30s same time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

The long term period is looking more and more unsettled as the
models are trending toward an active southwest flow pattern aloft.
The ecmwf has been leading the way with this moistening trend. The
gfs is still relatively dry, but not as dry as it was 24 hours
ago.

As far as the daily details...
A cold front will move southeast across our region late Friday night
and Saturday morning. Ahead of this front, Friday looks dry and mild
with highs in the 50s. Rain showers will develop Friday night as the
front enters our region and a deep upper-level trough emerges into
the Plains.

Over the weekend, the deep upper-level trough will lose amplitude as
it shears northeast into the Mississippi Valley by late Sunday. The
models are actually in good agreement on this 500 mb trough
progression. The differences center around the strength of a surface
high over the central Plains. The gfs has been showing a stronger
high passing east across the upper Mississippi Valley, while the
ecmwf has been showing a weaker high further north near the Canadian
border. The result is that the ecmwf spreads widespread qpf
northward across our region on Saturday, which continues into Sunday
night. The 00z gfs is much lighter with its qpf, which is confined
mainly to southern counties on Sunday.

Until model agreement improves, the forecast will continue with
chance pops through the entire weekend. The ecmwf is the warmer of
the two models since it keeps the surface high weaker and further
north. Therefore, it precipitation does occur as the ecmwf shows, it
would be rain on Saturday. There could be enough cold advection
Saturday night and Sunday for a mix of snow and rain, or possibly a
change to snow in northern counties.

The outlook for Monday is for an arctic cold front to approach from
the Plains. The models indicate dry conditions ahead of the front
with highs mainly in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 303 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MVFR cigs will occasionally restrict to IFR, while VFR vsbys
restrict to MVFR at times. Daytime should see increasing rain
chances while similar flight restrictions continue for both
cigs/vsbys. Nighttime will likely lower to IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys
for the duration.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







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