Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 160645
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
145 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Nice, dry, seasonally cooler airmass will continue to settle
across the FA as High pressure strengthens its hold on the lower
Ohio river valley. Dew points already in the lower half of the
40s, will continue to plummet into the 30s by tonight. That sets
the stage, with clear sky/light wind, for some patchy frost to
possibly develop, mainly across the northern half of the FA and
other low lying/cooler terrain locations. We inherited a little
patchy frost mention, massaged the low temp forecast just a tad,
and continue with the overall theme inherited (patchy frost
north). At this time, do not see any collab or chatter on headline
mention, so will likewise continue the outlook in the HWO, as
inherited.

Daytime highs running in the 60s Today-Tuesday, will
climb toward climo norms each day, and be in the lower 70s for
Wednesday. This occurs as the high pressure shifts slowly
eastward, and return flow slys develop by mid week. Similarly,
tonight`s lows in the upper 30s/near 40 will be the coolest, with
40s commonplace both Tue and Wed nights.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

High confidence continues for the extended.

Models continue to be in good agreement with the extended and are
starting to show better continuity outside or past the extended. A
surface high pressure will slowly drift to the east allowing a
southerly flow to return to the area. This will allow a warming
trend to take place through the extended. As the surface high drifts
toward the east coast ridging aloft will take place. The end result
should be a dry forecast through the week and into next weekend. We
will be between 5 and 10 degrees above normal through the extended
forecast. The models are hinting at another cold front to approach
the area late Sunday into Monday but moisture seems to be very
limited if the front actually does arrive at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Incoming high pressure will overtake the few lingering/remaining
clouds we have in the east, and continue to strengthen its grip
across the lower Ohio river valley through the remainder of the
forecast. Time/height column cross sections suggest a very dry
atmos/devoid of most if not all clouds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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