Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 212339
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
639 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Average confidence in the short term due to model discrepancies on
Tuesday.

High pressure overspreading the region in the wake of Saturday`s
cold frontal passage will keep the area dry through Monday night and
continue to provide plenty of sunshine and below normal temperatures
and humidity levels through most of the period.

Not sure how things are going to play out on Tuesday. By then the
high will be centered over the mid atlantic coast with all models
showing an increase in 1000-700MB moisture from the southwest as a
warm air advection regime kicks in. The NAM12 brings precipitation
chances across the southwest half of the CWA, the Canadian/ECMWF
only bring precipitation into the far western sections, and GFS/SREF
keep it completely dry. In light of so many solutions, decided to go
with a compromise and just bring pops into southeast MO.

Tuesday night models build the nose of an H5 ridge across the
eastern sections of the area which would serve to deflect
precipitation chances to the western and northwestern sections of
our CWA.

Temperatures will remain below normal through most of the short term
period, then moderate back toward normal by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

In the long term, we are still watching the progression of a cold
front. At 12Z Wednesday, the frontal boundary will be poised from
the Texas Panhandle northeastward into MN/WI. With time, this front
inches closer and closer to the CWA.

On Wednesday, we will definitely be situated in the warmer and more
humid air mass but with no real focusing mechanism, chances for
showers and thunderstorms appears low to none, with the best chances
along our northwestern periphery counties. As an upper level low
moves along the Canadian border and eventually opens up, this
frontal boundary will continue to slowly but steadily move southeast
into the area.

However, the front really weakens as it tries to impact us.
Meanwhile, an upper level high really stays pretty stationary near
our region and a lot of the deeper moisture associated with this
front tends to be shoved east and around this upper high. So, the
ECMWF might be on to something with its mainly dry analysis for
Wednesday and Thursday. Models have not been consistent on where the
upper high will be situated by then though. The GFS tries to
indicate the possibility of activity advancing our way from the
north or at least developing way out ahead of the front on Wednesday
night into Thursday, with its past couple of runs. The GFS precip
ensemble mean suggests a similar approach. Still too early to know
for sure how things will play out, therefore POPs will remain fairly
low.

It appears the front or whatever is left of the front, moves through
Thursday night into Friday. By that time, the upper high moves a
little bit further east. Not a whole lot of convergence to work with
at this point so chances for rain stay on the low side. As we get
into the weekend, additional moisture advances northward along the
western periphery of the upper high which may mean a chance for more
rain but it is unclear how much of it slips east into our counties.
Continue with low POPs at this time.

As far as temperatures, we should stay in the 80s for the most part
during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Aside from possible MVFR BCFG vsbys between 08-13Z, VFR
conditions should prevail at all sites through the period.
Northwest winds nearly calm tonight will become light easterly on
Monday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...GM



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