Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 112024
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
324 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

NAM is the big winner for handling this afternoon`s convective
development. GFS and ECMWF overdid QPF this morning, while NAM
held off until this afternoon, and is doing well. Based on the
NAM, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue
through about 00z, fizzling out with the loss of diurnal heating.

The cold front draped across our region will lift north as warm
front this evening.  Conditions will remain mild tonight with
persistent light south winds and some lingering cloud cover. On
Saturday, GFS tries to generate some light QPF, while the NAM and
ECMWF keep us dry.  Based on today`s performance, prefer the NAM
and ECMWF solutions. The pressure gradient tightens up Saturday,
so south winds will increase to 10 to 20 kts with gusts of 25 to
30 kts. Winds will stay up Saturday night and clouds will increase
from the west ahead of our next system. This will again keep
temperatures very mild with lows around 60 degrees.

On Sunday, winds will increase again and become quite gusty ahead
of the approaching cold front. NAM and ECMWF show the front
extending from southern Lake Michigan through central Missouri
into north Central Texas by 00z Sunday. Models show some precip
moving into southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois Sunday
afternoon, and went with some slight to chance pops Sunday
afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread across the PAH
forecast area Sunday night, especially across the west half of our
counties, with front moving into the western half of the fa by 12z
Monday. Went with categorical pops west to good chance east. We
should see some fairly decent QPF amounts, with western portions
of the fa possibly seeing a half inch or more by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing area wide on Monday,
especially over the eastern half of the CWA. At this time the
probability of severe weather with the system does not appear to be
an issue on Monday. Precipitation associated with this system
will taper off from west to east Monday night. Storm total
precipitation should average a half inch or less Monday and Monday
night.

Through the better part of next week high pressure at the surface
and weak ridging aloft should keep the region dry. Temperatures are
expected to start off well below normal, then moderate back toward
normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

With the exception of the possibility of MVFR cigs at KCGI/KPAH
between 15-18Z Saturday, VFR conditions expected at all sites through the
period. Light and variable winds through 12Z, then out of the south
aob 10 knots.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP




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