Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180558
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1158 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

High pressure will continue to build in across the region tonight
into Wednesday. The high is NOT of arctic or Canadian origin.
Thus, we can expect rain-free and seasonably mild conditions
through Wednesday night. Biggest question is whether we will get
any clearing under the dome of high pressure. Even if we finally
were to get rid of the lower clouds, high clouds ahead of the next
storm system will likely be streaking northeast into the region
later Wednesday.

Another potent upper level low pressure system and its associated
surface low will dig slowly eastward into the southern and
central Plains on Thursday. Deep southwesterly flow ahead of this
system will also be feeding in from the s/w as large scale ascent
associated with decent mid level diffluence commences. This will
set the stage for another fairly widespread rain event across the
lower Ohio Valley region. Similar to this past event, expecting
highest rain totals close to an inch to occur over western KY.
Amounts northwest of the Ohio river may stay closer to the 1/2 to
3/4 inch range by the time precip ends late Thursday night.

Once again, MUCAPES are expected to bounce up into the 100-300
J/KG range as a negatively tilted H50 trof rotates around the
base of the closed low Thursday afternoon/evening. Therefore, will
need to go with at least a mention of isolated thunderstorms
during that time frame. Severe risk is quite low though given the
meager instability levels expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Looks as though we will get another short break in the action
Friday into the day Saturday as a H50 short wave ridge builds
into the region. Low level flow will remain southerly though ahead
of another low out in the Plains. This will result in a
significant warm up as we head through the Fri/Sat time frame. In
fact, we could be flirting with near record warmth up in the 60s
to near 70 in some locations by Saturday afternoon.

Then we get to deal with the next in a series of storm systems
later in the weekend into early next week. A strong upper low is
expected to trek slowly east out of the southwest U.S. Saturday
night through Monday. Where (and how far south) this upper low
travels is still uncertain at this time. There are some
indications that this system will take a more southern track into
the lower MS Valley Sunday night. What seems a bit more certain is
that this system will likely have a lot of Gulf moisture
associated with it, so will need to monitor for another wave of
heavy rain in, or somewhere close, to our region. Thunderstorm
chances would increase if the system turns northeastward a bit
sooner.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1158 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

As an area of high surface pressure moves into the region by
morning, westerly winds will become light and quite variable
overnight. MVFR cigs may flirt with the IFR threshold near daybreak,
mainly in southeastern MO. MVFR vsbys in fog are possible at some
locations around that time. By midday Wed, cigs are expected to go
VFR as the flow aloft turns southwesterly, but VFR clouds will be on
the increase again from the southwest.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...MEFFERT
AVIATION...DB



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