Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 151204
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
604 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Models indicate we should see widely scattered showers across the
region this morning. Chances will increase from north to south
this afternoon into this evening with the approach of a cold
front. GFS and ECMWF show the front bisecting the PAH forecast
area from northeast to southwest by 06z Friday. Ahead of the
front, based on SPC guidance and forecast LIs near 0 to -1,
included a slight chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon into
early this evening for our north and northwest counties. Much of
the precipitation will be post frontal, so our highest chances
across the area will be this evening into Friday morning. Our
entire area will have likely to categorical chances at some point
during this time period.

Ahead of the front we will see temperatures climb into the 68 to
73 degree range. Much colder air will be filtering in behind the
front, with lows tonight in the middle 30s northwest to upper 40s
southeast. Highs Friday will only warm to 3 to 5 degrees above our
morning lows across north and northwest portions of our areas, but
our southeast counties will see readings hold steady or continue
to fall a few degrees through the day. The low temperatures may
lead to a few snowflakes mixing in with the rain early Friday
morning in our northwest counties, but it should be brief.
Rain will taper off from northwest to southeast through the day
Friday, with a return of dry and chilly conditions Friday night.

On Saturday, models show some impulses moving along the front to
our south, and this will bring the front back north along with
some moisture. Just how far north any precipitation will spread is
in question, with the ECMWF and Canadian spreading precipitation
across our entire area, while the GFS keeps it focused across
southeast Missouri and southern portions of west Kentucky.
Consensus is to lean toward the more aggressive ECMWF/Canadian
solutions, with much better chances across our southern half of
counties.  With cold air in place in the morning, any
precipitation should be in the form of light snow, and we could
see a couple of tenths of accumulations mainly in southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois. Temperatures will climb into the
lower to middle 40s, and with rain on top of snow, any snow on the
ground should not last too long. By Saturday night, models push
any precipitation off to our east, so dry conditions will return.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

A very wet pattern will continue next week. As 500 mb troughing
develops over the western states, an anomalously strong sub-tropical
ridge will develop off the Carolina coast. The result will be a
strong and persistent southwest flow of moist air.

A surface cold front will move southeast across the mid Mississippi
and lower Ohio Valleys next week. The 00z model runs indicate
Tuesday/Tuesday night would be the most likely timeframe for the
frontal passage. There is a chance of some thunder and heavy
rainfall along and ahead of the front, primarily Monday night into
Tuesday night. Both the 00z gfs and ecmwf indicate 2-meter dew
points will be in the lower 60s with marginal surface-based capes on
Tuesday.

The front will be shallow in nature due to the strong southwest flow
above 850 mb. Therefore, an overrunning situation with periods of
rain could occur Wednesday. The amount of shallow cold air that
penetrates this far southeast is a bit of a forecast challenge. The
00z ecmwf is by far the most aggressive with the cold air Wednesday.
It is 10 to 20 degrees colder than the model blend that will be used
in the forecast. Forecast highs will be in the 50s for Wednesday,
but the potential error is higher than normal at 7 days out.

The potential for flooding next week is worth noting. Ohio River
levels are already near flood stage. Although parts of southeast
Missouri remain in a drought, soil moisture east of the Mississippi
River is considerably higher. The flooding potential will become
more clear once the details of the rainfall duration and amounts are
known.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 604 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

MVFR to IFR cigs expected through the TAF period. Scattered
showers possible in the morning, the widespread showers expected
late this afternoon into the overnight with the passage of a cold
front. MVFR vsbys expected with showers. Winds will be from the
southwest at 12 to 20 kts with gusts of 25 to 30 kts, becoming
northwest between 04z-09z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RST



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