Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 201835
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A rather quiet weather pattern will persist through Tuesday night
with a steady moderation in temperatures through the period. The
weak upper level trough that has lingered over the region the past
several days will finally be shoved east by a building ridge
centered over the Central and Southern Rockies. This should help to
decrease the abundant cloud cover that continues to linger over
portions of southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky.

As far as temperatures are concerned, prefer a bias-corrected
guidance blend during the day with a lean towards cooler MOS at
night. The NAM remains too cool, so the forecast is more
representative of a GFS/ECMWF blend. All in all, temperatures
will warm from the mid 80s today into the lower 90s by Tuesday.
Increasing humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index
readings in the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Models in decent agreement in their handling of two separate weather
systems in the long term period, so forecast confidence above
average.

The long term period starts off with the approach of a cold front
which will tap into deeper moisture and produce showers and
thunderstorms. Due to lack of deep layer flow, the boundary will
take its time crossing the area, consequently precipitation chances
continue Wednesday night into Thursday. However, with the passage of
the front, precipitation chances will taper off from northwest to
southeast on Thursday.

High pressure at the surface in the wake of the front should keep
the region dry Thursday night and Friday. Precipitation chances will
return Friday night as an area of low pressure developing over the
plains lifts the aforementioned front back to the north and east as
a warm front. With the front lingering across the area, the approach
of surface low pressure, and a series of upper level disturbances
diving southeast through the flow, precipitation chances should
continue through the end of the period.

With the exception of Thursday and Friday, temperatures and
dewpoints will be near normal through the rest of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

High pressure to remain in control throughout the period. May
experience another bout of patchy fog late at night thru sunrise.
Should be shallow and patchy...but locally dense at times.
Otherwise, possibly some vfr cigs in the afternoon hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GM






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