Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 110217

917 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Issued at 915 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Primary first period update was made to account for faster
reduction of surface winds and attendant changes in temperature
and dewpoints overnight. Added a mention of fog into the grids
overnight. The majority of the fog that develops should range
between three and five statute miles. The SREF suggests a slightly
higher potential for lower visibilities near Lake Wappapello in
Southeast Missouri, near Fort Campbell and Owensboro Kentucky
between 4 am and 7 am CDT. Most of the fog should be shallow in
nature and variable in visibility. Unless the fog develops quicker
than expected, will hold off with respect to any statement.

UPDATE Issued at 436 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Spectacular fall weather will continue through the weekend as high
pressure prevails. The high will pass through the area tonight.
With clear skies and calm winds, excellent radiational cooling
should allow temperatures to plunge this evening. Lows by daybreak
Sunday will average in the mid 40s, though some lower 40s are
certainly possible, especially in the valley regions of southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois. A few degrees cooler and frost
would be a concern, but we think that should not be the case at
least for tonight.

As the high shifts east of the region, a return to southerly low
level flow will result in a substantial warming trend Sunday into
Monday. Temperatures tomorrow are forecast to warm well into the
70s, with readings above the 80 degree mark across much of the
area on Monday. Monday should be quite breezy given the enhanced
pressure gradient in the vicinity of a passing cold front. Due to
limited moisture, the main impact from this feature appears to be
an increase in clouds. However, a few sprinkles or light showers
cannot be completely ruled out by afternoon, especially along and
southeast of the Ohio River. A clearing sky and cooler temperatures
will take hold Monday night as the cold front sweeps east of the

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Fairly high confidence in a dry and eventually cooler extended
forecast. The 12Z GFS and GEM, and the 00Z ECMWF are in very good
agreement in the overall scenario through next Saturday.

A ridge west/trough east pattern will become more amplified through
the week and into next weekend. A couple of impulses in the
strengthening northwest flow aloft will bring mostly minor
windshifts through the region. However, a stronger cold front should
move through the area Thursday night or Friday. Behind it a cool
Canadian surface high will overspread the entire region, leading to
a cool down for next weekend.

The only fly in the ointment is the recently arrived 12Z ECMWF. It
is not quite as amplified with the flow with the Thursday night
system/cold front, and holds the front over our region and generates
some decent QPF with it late Thursday night and Friday morning.
Given that this is the first sign of noteworthy precipitation with
this system, will discount it for now. As for temperatures,
conditions will be near normal Tuesday through Thursday before
dropping below normal for Friday and especially Saturday.


Issued at 436 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

High pressure will settle itself southward and eastward from the
Ohio valley to the Tennessee valley and beyond over the course of this
forecast package. Clear skies/light winds tonight may allow patchy
fog to develop. And by tmrw, a light southerly return flow will




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