Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 161645

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Issued at 1145 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Dry and warm conditions will continue through the short-term
portion of the forecast. Winds will be on the gusty side each day,
as low-level southerly flow averages around 30 knots at 850 mb.
Mostly clear skies are expected for much of the period. A few
intervals of mid-level cloudiness are expected, especially today
due to a 500 mb shortwave passing by to our north. The clouds
today should not have a big impact on temps, and model forecast
highs in the mid 80s will be followed.

850 mb temps are forecast to hover in the mid to upper teens
Monday through Tuesday. Afternoon mixing heights are forecast to
reach about 850 mb based on gfs soundings. These 850 temps should
translate to highs in the upper 80s, which is in line with
available mos guidance and the model superblend. Record highs are
in the mid to upper 80s both days.

A 500 mb shortwave will emerge into the western Plains Tuesday
night. A surface cold front could sag as far southeast as
southern IL and southeast MO late Tuesday night. A slight chance
of showers and a few storms will be included for that area. The
higher chances of precipitation will hold off until the shortwave
gets closer to our region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Confidence has increased with respect to the long term. 4
consecutive EC runs have held steady with a progressive movement
with the upper trof moving out of the Rockies into the Plains and
eventually across our area Wednesday through Thursday. The 00z OPS
GFS has come in line. The ensemble spreads are not as great as 24
hours ago, though there is still some uncertainty with respect to

Therefore, we will abandon the blend grids too slow to react
forecast, with PoPs more aligned with the last 4 EC runs and latest
GFS run. Chance PoPs for convection will increase Wednesday
especially NW of the Ohio, the chance will shift SE Wednesday night
and peak. Decreasing shower chances Thursday from west to east with
the passage of axis of deepest moisture and surface cold front off
to the east. Friday and Saturday will now be mainly dry. Kept a
token 20 percent chance of light showers east 1/2 of the area Friday
until the effects of the upper trof are far enough east.

Wednesday will be warm pre front, though there will be increasing
clouds. Noticeably cooler Thursday through Saturday.


Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

The main aviation concern will be gusty southerly winds during the
daytime hours. During the afternoon hours today, gusts up to 20
knots are expected, especially in southern IL. During the night and
early morning hours, winds will subside to below 10 knots. Today,
VFR clouds will decorate the sky from time to time as a mid level
impulse moves through. The pressure gradient tightens more on
Monday, yielding higher winds than today`s.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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