Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281144
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
644 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A minor PoP and weather adjustment made along a line stretching
from Southwest of Paducah to northeast of Evansville to account
for pre-dawn shower activity along gradient of mid-level moisture
and instability. This activity should diminish in coverage within
an hour or two after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Although small, rain chances will still exist for the Pennyrile
Region of West Kentucky mainly this afternoon, along and east of
the Land Between the Lakes. The slowly ejecting low from Texas
moving northeast toward Arkansas and Louisiana, combined with the southeastward
moving low opening into a shortwave will lead to a slightly
enhanced zone of baroclinicity over Tennessee and Kentucky this afternoon.

The greater instability will be along the edge of this zone, but
the greater layer precipitable water, between 1.2-1.4 inches,
remains fixed mostly over West Kentucky. Originally considered the
potential for greater coverage of isolated thunderstorms, but
given marginal updrafts, limited mention of any thunderstorms
where combined updrafts may support more robust convection with
marginal instability.

Short term guidance suite was 1-2 degrees cooler than surrounding
NWS CWA on-going forecasts, so adjusted max/mins slightly upward for
collaboration purposes.

The evolution of the shifting lows signal a pattern chance to a
low amplitude ridge developing over the area through Tuesday.
Beyond that time, a more dramatic shift in energy will take place
impacting weather conditions in the long term part of this
forecast package.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Above average forecast confidence in the long term as latest
model runs in decent agreement.

With the area being on the back side of a surface high and under a
weakening ridge aloft, Wednesday should remain dry. Due to a good
surge of sfc-850 MB dewpoints over our southeast Missouri counties
Wednesday afternoon, the GFS cranks out a tad of QPF there. However,
after looking at soundings, a bubble of warm air between 800-700 MB
should produce just enough inhibition to prevent convection.

Latest long range models are slightly speeding up the onset of
precipitation over our CWA with the approach of a weather system out
of the central plains, so added POPS over the far western and
northwestern sections Wednesday night.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from the west on
Thursday as the aforementioned storm system draws closer. Models are
slightly different with timing and placement of selected parameters
of this system, but right now the best timing and coverage area-wide
for showers and thunderstorms should be Thursday night as the system
actually crosses the region.

Although there is still some disparity among models where timing of
the fropa is concerned, the boundary should be along or near the
eastern border of our CWA at 12Z (7 AM) Friday. Consequently,
precipitation chances on Friday rapidly diminish from west to east.

Over the past couple of days long range models were jockeying back
and forth trying to generate a few sprinkles in the wrap around
moisture over the northeast sections of our CWA Friday night, but
latest runs have backed off on that, so will keep it dry.

In the wake of the front, a strong surface high and northwest flow
aloft will usher in some of the coolest air of the season thus far
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 655 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A mention of vicinity showers added to KPAH and KEVV this morning
to account for ongoing convection. Otherwise, VFR conditions to
prevail through end of forecast period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JAP
AVIATION...Smith





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