Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 090931
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
331 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Short term will be dominated by cold Canadian airmass that has now
rotated south/east into the region. Areas of light snow and
flurries embedded within broad cyclonic flow aloft will likely
persist at least for awhile today...mainly along/east of the MS
River. Thus far, have not seen much over a coating to about an
inch...mainly areas of sw IN/nw KY. Not expecting the snow to
amount to much today...tho there will likely be quick heavier
bursts where enhanced banding develops. Will watch radar trends
as we approach the morning commute. May need to issue an impact-
based winter weather advisory on the fly in some locations for the
morning rush. For now, will go with a special weather statement
to cover localized heavier bursts which could reduce visibilities
and briefly cover some roadways. The remainder of the short term
is expected to be cold and mainly snow-free. Will need to keep an
eye on a weakening clipper type system that will be diving se
into the region Wednesday night. Right now, then system looks to
be rather moisture starved, and no big impacts are anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

The medium range models/ensembles appeared to be in decent agreement
with the overall mid/upper flow across the CONUS in the extended
period. The mid/upper flow will be out of the northwest most of the
time, meaning that with colder air being maintained in place, many
of the impulses of energy embedded within the flow may trigger light
pcpn periodically.

It appears that the first opportunity for light snowfall will be on
Friday with the introduction of another arctic air mass. However,
the probability at this time for measurable pcpn is low, and only
for southwestern IN and adjacent parts of southern IL and northern
KY. The frigid arctic air mass that follows should provide dewpoints
in the single digits and highs near to well below freezing through
the weekend.

Beginning Sunday, a more substantial mid level shortwave is shown by
the models (with varying degrees of intensity and with some
differences in timing) to affect the PAH forecast area. The ECMWF
seemed to have the greatest QPF signal, probably due to its more
southerly placement of a surface low (right in our vicinity). At
this time, the favored initialization blend centered the greatest
PoP and QPF on the Sunday night time period. Model temperature
profiles indicate snowfall will be the dominant pcpn type, possibly
switching over to rain by Monday afternoon and evening as the
influence of the arctic high wanes. For now, snow accumulations are
expected to be minor.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The HRRR/RAP guidance suggests a narrow band of lowered ceilings
and visibilities associated with the greatest probabilities of
snow showers. For KCGI and KPAH, the majority of lowered
visibilities and ceilings will be between 10z-14z Tuesday time
frame.

With respect to KEVV and KOWB, more persistent and intermittent
VFR snow shower activity will keep a prevailing mention of light
snow in the TAF`s. MVFR visibilities were focused closer to model
depiction of greater lift and instability producing better
chances for reductions to ceiling and visibility due to snow.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...Smith


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