Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KPAH 261735
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Today will be warm/mild and pleasant, as High pressure anchors
over the Southeast. Return flow slys will be the only damper on
temps that will be climbing into the 50s for highs.

The return flow will also pump some moisture back into the column,
as a developing weather system takes shape to our west. It moves
in from the west later tonight, and especially on Saturday. Pops
will spike in the high likely to categorical range Saturday into
Saturday night, mainly across southern counties, as the broad
carving of the mean long wave trof occurs across Tx. This keeps
the warm/moist fetch wide open thru the weekend as the surface
system makes passage Saturday, but overrunning rains continue into
Sunday.

With the surface lows ejecting out of the mean long wave trof
taking a track south and east of the PAH FA, thunder chances
should likewise stay south and east of us. However, some elevated
instability does exist in the form of Total Totals near 50, and
K`s into the 30s. It`ll be something to watch for, but not include
any thunder mention in the forecast, as again, it should stay
primarily south and east of us.

Storm system QPF will be highest (about 3/4") in our southeastern
counties, tapering to about a quarter inch in our northwestern
counties. By the time the column starts to cool enough for a
changeover, the pcpn is drawing to an end late Sunday into Sunday
night, so nothing is forecast other than liquid pcpn for this event.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

The GFS/ECMWF ensemble means were in decent agreement in their
solutions at this time with the developing split flow across the
CONUS.

As sfc pressures continue to rise through mid week, the mid/upper
flow over the PAH forecast area will transition from wswrly to
wnwrly. Meanwhile, the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models have a strong signal for
a surge of arctic air to sweep out of the nrn stream and into our
area early Wed, dropping the dewpoints into at least the single
digits, possibly lower, for about 24 hrs. After a dry and frigid
Wed, the primarily nrly sfc winds should return to a swrly direction
by Thu, helping to boost temps and especially dewpoints somewhat. At
this time, the 00Z model runs suggest that the extended forecast
will be dry for the PAH forecast area (through 00Z Fri), after which
a large scale moist warm advection pattern will develop ahead of an
ejecting swrn CONUS mid level low. Added some GFS MOS into the
initialization blend temp numbers, and modified the dewpoints mid
week to reflect the arctic signal better.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Low level moisture more prominent over SEMO, where some sct-bkn MVFR
bases are located, while east of the Mississippi, drier low level
air yielding higher bases or just occasional high clouds streaming
NE across the area. SSW winds 8-12 kts will continue through the
afternoon with a few gusts 20 kts or so, give or take.

Winds subside this evening, with mainly sct-bkn VFR cu-stratocu.
After 06z, will introduce chance of -SHRA, then ramp up the chance
by 12-14z Saturday, as a lobe of energy and more significant
moisture moves NE into and across the area. Introductory MVFR cigs
and vsbys with the precip, but there could be intermittent IFR
conditions through the morning Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.