Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 212321

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
521 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Issued at 512 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Updated for 00Z aviation forecast discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

The models continue to indicate that it will be dry and cool
through Thanksgiving Night.

The initial wind shift with the cold front is just about to enter
the northwest corner of our region, and should sweep through the
entire area by mid-evening. Gusty northwest winds will lag a
couple of hours behind the front, and will eventually subside some
overnight. The surface high will then settle over the region
Wednesday and lead to a chilly night Wednesday night. A south wind
will pick up early Thanksgiving Day, but will dissipate by late
afternoon. South winds will attempt to pick up again late
Thanksgiving Night, but most of the area will see strong
radiational cooling conditions again.

Temperatures will drop to around 10 degrees below normal
Wednesday and Wednesday night and will be around 5 degrees below
normal Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving Night. Lows tonight were
unchanged from the previous forecast and will range from 25 to 30
degrees from northwest to southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Very high confidence in the extended.

Models are in unusual agreement in the extended to the point rarely
observed. The near zonal flow will become more northwest as an upper
level trough and surface cold front approach the region at the end
of the week. The cold front will move through Saturday morning
early. However with very little moisture to work with the models
agree it will be a dry frontal passage. Other than a winds shift and
maybe a few more clouds little will be noticed with the passage.
Temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal Friday and
Saturday. Bu Sunday however we will see temperatures falling below
normal as the colder air finally get into the region. In fact we
will see highs and lows a good ten degrees colder by Sunday. Also it
will be very breezy on Saturday as the cold air begins to infiltrate
the area. As we begin next week expect the the flow to return to the
southwest with warmer and slightly more moist air to return to the
region. By Tuesday we have yet another cold front poised to move
into the area. The latest runs are pushing rain chances back a bit
from previous runs and try to hold off anything until Tuesday night
or just outside our forecast valid time. Even in this rain comes to
fruition it will still be somewhat moisture starved with very low
rainfall amounts expected at this time.


Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A cold front will pass through the TAF sites over the next couple
of hours resulting in a wind shift. Once the front passes through,
northwest winds will gust a bit for a few hours behind the front.
A band of mid-level clouds will accompany the front through the
region, but it should clear out fairly quickly though.



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