Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 302017

317 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The PAH forecast area will be under general mid level ridging for
the rest of today through Wed night. Sfc winds will remain very
slack until a gentle srly low level flow gets established by Wed
afternoon. Peak afternoon temps will be similar Wed to today, and
will probably stay well into the middle 80s even on Thu, especially
in the ern half of the region where much of the pcpn will be
probably be delayed until the evening.

A few showers/maybe a tstm are possible for the wrn half of the
region as early as Wed night as the flow aloft shifts more swrly
and large scale lift begins to occur. Thu...srly low level flow
should result in a increase in dewpoints and available moisture
for development of deeper convection in the form of scattered to
numerous showers and tstms ahead of an approaching cold front.

By around sunset Thu, a full latitudinal mid level shrtwv is
progged to have developed and moved rapidly toward the PAH
forecast area, driving a sfc cold front ahead of it. A squall line
ahead of the front is likely to be on our nwrn doorstep by 00Z,
then will rapidly sweep through overnight. Between 00Z and 06Z Fri,
when decent instability is still present, bulk shear parameters
appear adequate, but with modest mid level lapse rates at best.
This should be the best window of opportunity for whatever severe
weather might occur, primarily west of the MS River. Wind and large
hail will be the primary hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The pattern will generally be an a deep upper level trof over the
east U.S. with ridging along the West Coast. Mainly dry weather is
expected. A cold front will depart the area early Friday with
decreasing chances of showers over eastern areas early in the day.
Very chilly air will then build in as deep H50 low pressure tries to
close off over the Great Lakes region early in the weekend. In fact,
it still appears that after morning low temps in the 40s Sat
morning, max temps will struggle to break 60 degrees in some
locations. Models differ somewhat on the timing of a secondary cold
frontal passage late in the weekend or very early next week, but
should bring more clouds than rainfall with it. Main affect of its
passage will be to prevent temps from warming back up to normal
anytime soon.


Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Under ridging aloft and a slack sfc pressure pattern, winds will
be very light and variable, mainly in the wrn half, for the rest
of the daylight hours, going calm everywhere for much of the
night under virtually clear skies. However, the overall trend for
the sfc winds will be to take on an erly component as time goes on,
then to veer to srly by midday Wed. Greater winds just off the
sfc are expected to stir the boundary layer enough to preclude the
formation of significant fog late in the night.




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