612
FXUS63 KPAH 132319
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
619 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
  each afternoon for the next week. The strongest storms may
  pose an isolated threat of damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will
  accompany all storms.

- The work week will start out with seasonable heat and
  humidity, but heat indices will climb into the triple digits
  throughout the region Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms near the
Mississippi River will continue to move slowly northeast across
the Quad State through the remainder of the afternoon and into
the evening. DCAPE values are much lower than the last few days,
so there won`t be as much evaporative cooling to generate such cool
outflows and the stronger winds. An isolated damaging wind gust
cannot be ruled out, but they should not be as prevalent as
yesterday. Otherwise, the isolated to scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will continue daily through next
weekend. All storms through the week will be capable of
producing brief torrential rainfall, due to the extreme
moisture content of the atmosphere.

High pressure aloft will gradually build across the Quad State
through the work week, which should eventually limit the
coverage of the diurnal convection to some degree, but it will
not be strong enough to prevent it altogether. In concert with
that lesser coverage of convection, temperatures will gradually
trend upward. The entire area should be in the 90s by Wednesday
and some middle 90s will be possible by Thursday. Humidity will
be in full bloom as well, so heat indices will reach the
100-105 range throughout the region Wednesday through at least
Friday. There are signs that a weak frontal boundary may slip
south into the Quad State Friday through next weekend, and that
should lead to increased coverage of convection and a slight
cooling trend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Scattered SHRA/TSRA currently impacting EVV and OWB with an
eastern forward motion of 20-30 kts. Another region of SHRA and
a few TS were noted from CGI and northeast of PAH. TEMPO groups
were kept for evening TSRA activity. The trend should be for
activity to diminish overnight. Guidance suggests low cigs and
possibly some visby restrictions to move in from the north by
morning. All sites will carry a mention of MVFR cigs with MVN
carrying LIFR cig/visby. This activity will be slow to clear up
but by late morning and early afternoon conditions are expected
to return to VFR. Convection is possible Monday afternoon but
coverage looks lower with all terminals carrying PROB30s.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...AD