000
FXUS63 KPAH 190442
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring a sunny
and pleasant Easter weekend to the region. MOS guidance has been a
bit too cool in this dry air during the daytime hours, so nudged
highs up a few degrees from previous forecasts. Would not be
surprised if a few locations touch 80 degrees on Easter Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance remain
collectively similar in pushing a mean low amplitude shortwave
trough through the WFO PAH forecast area at the beginning of the
extended forecast period (Monday). The lack of broad scale, enhanced
forcing suggests that any precipitation coverage will remain
scattered with only pockets of instability for any thunderstorm
development. Any lift will move east coincident with the trough
passage, so rain chances should diminish quickly Monday night.

The next weather system moves slowly into the region on Thursday,
and a Northern Plans low moves into the upper Midwest on Friday. The
12z Friday GFS/GFS Ensemble takes a more northerly track with this
system through the Upper Great Lakes. This will impact the degree of
intrusion of higher theta-e air and proximity of colder upper level
temperatures and shear into the region. Given this uncertainty, a
decision was made to keep PoPs in the chance category through Friday.
It is too early to determine any potential for severe thunderstorms
with pre-frontal/frontal convective activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep conditions VFR
throughout the region for the entire 06Z TAF period. The outflow
cirrus shield will shift east by morning, and some cu development
will be possible for the afternoon and evening. Winds will be from
the northeast through the period. Speeds may pick up to near
10kts in the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS