Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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845
FXUS63 KPAH 222216
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
516 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 514 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

High amplitude upper lvl ridge centered along the MS River Valley
will drift slowly east into the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes
region by the end of the short term. The result in our sensible
weather will be a continuation of rain free and unseasonably warm
conditions right through the first half of the weekend. High temps
should push 90 or so Fri/Sat, about 10 degrees or so above normal
values for this time of year. However, things should cool down
quite nicely around/after sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

It appears that in the extended period, after about Day 4, the
deterministic model solutions diverge quite a bit, and even the
EC/GFS ensemble means differ, so confidence in any one solution is
low at this time.

The overall mid level pattern across the CONUS by Sunday is
generally depicted as a well-amplified trof over the northern Plains
states, with ridging over the eastern CONUS. Some models depicted
the western trof as one meridional unit, such as the Canadian, while
other models and, to a lesser degree, the GFS/EC ensemble means,
tended to show it as morphing into two systems that eventually split
apart. The initialization blend of models appeared to represent the
somewhat more progressive solution, with the more dominant northern
stream low/trof steadily making progress somewhere across the
northern tier of states, eventually wiping out the southern ridge.
There should be a cold frontal passage at some point, perhaps by
early Monday, resulting in pre-frontal showers and tstms, followed
by post-frontal rains possibly lingering into Tuesday night.

MOS numbers vary greatly, of course, but this overall pattern will
be conducive to a cooling trend early in the week, after a warm
Sunday. At this time, we will go with highs in the 70s and lows in
the 50s after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 514 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

High pressure aloft will ensure VFR conditions most of the TAF
period. However, we still may see BCFG conditions, mainly around
the KCGI/KPAH sites 08z-13z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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