Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 250521
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1121 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

Local radar shows rain showers have diminished quickly early this
afternoon, and have decreased pops into slight category for the
next few hours. Wrap around light rain showers, possibly mixed
with a little snow, over south central/central Missouri will shift
over the PAH forecast area late this afternoon into this evening.
Models indicate any precip reaching our area will remain very
light with slightly better chances over our northern half of
counties. Went slight chance pops south to low chance pops north
between 22z and 05z. Precip should remain rain across much of our
area, but went with a rain/snow mix across portions of southeast
Missouri, southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, where soundings
indicate some snow potential and surface temperatures will drop
into the middle 30s before precip ends.

Models show surface high pressure sliding along the Gulf Coast
Thursday then over the southeast U.S. on Friday. This will help
winds shift quickly back to the southwest to south by early
Thursday. We should see quite a bit of sunshine for Christmas Day
and Friday, with temperatures a few degrees above seasonal
Thursday and around 10 degrees above normal Friday. Clouds will
increase Friday night with the approach of a cold front. GFS, NAM
and ECMWF all bring some precip into our west and northwest
counties late Friday night, so went with slight to chance category
for showers after 06z Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

First with respect to the models. The 12z ECMWF has trended closer
to the 12z GFS. The overall depiction, of a digging trof over the
west U.S. into the inter-mountain west is what is closest to a number
of prior runs over the last 3 days or so. There have been outlier
runs, such as the 00z ECMWF, farther east with the initial digging
trof out west, along with some CMC runs. Given those are in the
minority, went with a 12z ECMWF/GFS blend. The ensemble mean
solutions may have smoothed out some details. But overall they would
tend toward even those outlier solutions. So the blend lies with the
most consistent pattern depiction maintained in the 12z runs.

What this means for the forecast is, a notable reduction in PoPs
beginning Sunday, with mainly a dry forecast now in place Monday
through Wednesday night.

First, Saturday, went above blend output and introduced likely PoPs
everywhere for showers, given the strong EC/NAM/GFS agreement. Cold
front still forecast to move through, supported by low trop WAA and
H7 forcing. QPF not terribly high, but most areas should get some
rain shower activity. Best PoPs will gradually shift east Saturday
night.

The s/wv forecast to eject NE out of TX Sunday really dampens out on
the 12z ECMWF. Prior runs were a bit too robust with this feature.
The ensemble means and GFS runs seemed to depict the weakening
better. This should result in best moisture being shunted with time
to our SE, as drying works in from the WSW. We do maintain a slight
chance of light precipitation Tuesday night, maybe light freezing
rain/light snow. Went with only slight chance PoPs given limited
moisture.

Arctic air will gradually arrive by the middle of the week. Temps
were initially a blend of direct model output and MOS, then more of
a MOS/Ensemble MOS and blended model approach toward the end of the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1116 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

Low VFR stratus currently shrouding the region will finally clear
from west to east 09z (KCGI) to 15z (KOWB).

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM





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