Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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187
FXUS63 KPAH 272031
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
331 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Big Rain event and possible svr event setting up for next 24-48
hour time period. Returning warm front will act to steepen profile
for greater lapse rates needed for free parcel lift in warm
sector by Friday night. Boundary sets up/becomes quasi stationary
by then, and where exactly is the big question. At this point,
collab consensus is along/just north of Oh river is best bet,
though some model indications suggest it could bump even further
to our north. SWODY2 outlooks this broad region in vicinity
either/side of boundary in enhanced risk. Impressive wind fields
means damaging winds primary hazard and with boundary presence,
rotating updraft potential is there as well.

FFA in effect for this region as well, extending further
southwestward, where heavier rains yesterday of 1.5-3" fell.
Additional 2 to 3" expected in our east, with perhaps 4-6"
additional inches in our west, mean heavy and possibly repeat
rains falling on already wetted grounds in FFA zone, so re-upped
with it and likewise updated SPS covering remainder FA.
Uncertainty with areal location means collab agreement on no
change to existing/inherited location FFA.

Timing looks sharp/with little new model difference other than
subtley timing (Saturday still looking to be a relative pause
period). After the pause, the parent trof axis shoves the entire
system in play, and another svr threat accompanies it, with SLGT
risk of svr beginnig toward end of short term period and
continuing into/thru remainder of weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

On Sunday we will see the final hurrah of our active weekend. Models
show a surface low over southern Iowa at 00z Monday, with a cold
front extending southward, just entering our western counties.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected along and ahead
of the front Sunday into Sunday evening, tapering off from west to
east late Sunday night.  An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is
expected Sunday into Sunday night.  There will also be some severe
potential mainly during the daytime hours, though Saturday night
activity/remnant cloud cover may have an effect on thunderstorm
chances.

After near seasonal temperatures on Sunday, cooler and drier
conditions can be expected for Monday, with readings moderating
back to near seasonal by Tuesday. A weak disturbance will give us
small chances of showers by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
By Wednesday, models indicate a warm front will be lifting
northward, giving us better chances of showers and a few storms
Wednesday. By Wednesday night into Thursday, models take a surface
low northeast from Arkansas, to the east of our region. That far
out it is difficult to be confident in the path and timing, so
just went with some low chances for showers. Temperatures will
remain near to a little below seasonal normals for mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Gridded Time/Height cross sections appear to be on track with
Satellite trends suggesting MVFR bases disperse this evening and
into the early night hours. However, should see warm front`s
return mid cloud advection bring additional cloud cover late
tonight into the planning period tmrw, lowering bases with time,
but should remain (mostly) VFR all terminals. Did go ahead and
offer CB MVFR bases possibly scattered with vicinity thunder for
the last hour or two at KCGI/KPAH to signify the trending
direction they`ll be going heading into the late day and
subsequent night periods.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Sunday night
     for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Sunday night
     for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Sunday night
     for KYZ001>005.

&&

$$



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