Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 141910
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
210 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The main forecast challenge for the short term is the passage of the
strong cold front Sunday and its associated weather. A major cool
down will follow the frontal passage and there is a chance, albeit
small, of scattered light frost Monday night.

The morning model runs have some slight variations from the previous
runs. The 12Z GFS is slightly slower (equivalent of an hour or
two) with the southeast progression of the cold front and very
similar to the 00Z ECMWF run, whereas the NAM is about the same.
Bottom line is the front will push into the NW extreme of the FA
about 3-4am and clear the SE corner of the FA by about noon
Sunday. However the models have consistently held the moisture
axis along and behind the front a hundred miles or so/up to a
couple hours. Will keep POPs mostly in the likely range, however
rainfall amounts should average no more than a tenth of an inch or
so mainly in the mode of showers, although a few thunderstorms
are possible.

The Sunday transitional weather pattern has resulted in several
degrees variation on model forecast max temps. The OWB MAV/GFS value
is 12 degrees warmer than the MET/NAM value (76 vs. 64). Will
maintain a max temp forecast similar to previous forecasts (lower
60s NW to at least lower 70s SE) which is basically a NAM/ECMWF
blend vs. the warmer GFS. Will blend in the GFS more though in the
SE for Sunday max temps. Wind gusts into the upper teens and at
least lower 20s Sunday combined with the abruptly cooler temps will
make for a very fall like day.

With high pressure centered right over the FA Monday night and
surface dewpoint temperatures projected in the upper 30s (some
mid 30s) a few of the colder areas could see some patchy light
frost. Will leave frost out of the forecast for now with lows
Monday night projected just above 40 but much of a trend lower and
it will need to be introduced.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

High confidence in the extended.

Models are in good agreement with the extended. We will start out
with a surface high over the area with a near zonal flow aloft. The
high will slowly drift eastward toward the east coast as we head
through the week. This will allow a southerly flow to set up over
the region bringing a warming trend to the area. As we approach the
end of the week high pressure aloft starts to build over the area.
The net result will be dry weather with a warming trend in the
extended. Much drier air will be in place early this week with RH
reading falling into the 20s west of the Mississippi River and 30s
to the east of the river. Temperatures will start off near normal
and slowly rise at least 5 degrees above normal toward the end of
the week. The models do start to diverge late next weekend with the
GFS breaking down and allowing a cold front to approach the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Southerly winds around 10 knots this afternoon will gradually pick
up to between 10 and 15 knots tonight with some gusts AOA 20
knots. The exception will be early this evening/around sunset when
winds will reach a lull of 5 to 10 knots. Clouds will increase
tonight with MVFR cigs and vicinity SHRA forecast Sunday morning
as a cold front pushes SE across the region. Visibilities may go
below VFR levels with SHRA and possibly a TSRA or two, but
strength of winds should generally preclude restricted
visibilities, especially outside of SHRA. Winds will shift to NW
late Sunday morning but remain quite gusty throughout the day
Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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